kdxken Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, hooralph said: What's up, Ken. I pulled that book out last night for my son. Hey how the heck are you! Still down in DC? Still taking pictures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Let's get real about one run of the GFS. Yesterday's 18z run had 2.16" qpf here for this storm only, then at 0z it had only 1.29", before going back up to 1.91" at 06z. Now it's back down to 1.55" at 18z. I'll bet it's back up significantly again at 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Don’t want another under 10” snowfall. No thanks. Blizzard or gtfo 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nianticct Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Draw the shades. The only good thing if this storm fails is we won’t have to see you naked! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Got home about 2 pm. LFG!! Looks like we’re on the verge of something memorable at the least. I am about 3 miles north of the blizzard warning lol…I’ll expect blizzard conditions. Wolfieee 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 18z isn’t cutting back so much as it’s tightening up a bit, which isn’t super surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 18z gfs moved the 2” line from west of Boston down to like Foxboro, so about a 25 mile nudge south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Let's get real about one run of the GFS. Yesterday's 18z run had 2.16" qpf here for this storm only, then at 0z it had only 1.29", before going back up to 1.91" at 06z. Now it's back down to 1.55" at 18z. I'll bet it's back up significantly again at 0z. Hope we aren’t doing a Jan 2022. Ended up an all timer here, but rug pulled many in the final 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Hope we aren’t doing a Jan 2022. Ended up an all timer here, but rug pulled many in the final 24 Not sure that was truly an all-timer there. There were discrepancies in amounts down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Hope we aren’t doing a Jan 2022. Ended up an all timer here, but rug pulled many in the final 24 I still think many here are on the verge of bridge jumping, . They can say they are just kidding, but we know better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 If en masse everything moves like that together, you have to question the validity of the input grids/data initialization. That said, this looks like noise to me is not alleviating any concern over this from 12z 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJBASHB Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 10 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Don’t want another under 10” snowfall. No thanks. Blizzard or gtfo Another jump like the GFS and we get clouds. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: 18z gfs moved the 2” line from west of Boston down to like Foxboro, so about a 25 mile nudge south check out the hi-res RGEM..24"+ SEMA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VivaManchVegas Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Is the mood in the house bad ? 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: If en masse everything moves like that together, you have to question the validity of the input grids/data initialization. When you say everything, you must not mean the 18z NAM or the 18z HRRR, which didn't. Whether or not they are in their zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 There was/is a limit to how much this surface reflection and it's integration with the mid level could actually migrate NW and we're probably just bouncing now along that limit 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Wolfieee Let’s have a f’n blizzard Brett…!!! I’m ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: When you say everything, you must not mean the 18z NAM or the 18z HRRR, which didn't. Whether or not they are in their zones. I'm just speaking to the reactionary crowd song. "As though" - that's how they're sounding. I saw GFS S followed x too, y too posts ... it's nerviness controlling people's reaction without being analytic about what they are seeing. Hence the "if" I don't really care honestly. Folks will engage how they want. I'm just offering that observation - take it or leave it. But the 12z and the 18z as I demoed above are utterly meaninglessly different at 42 hours. Ferocious combination of blinding blown choking snow rate hurled along by possible grid contending wind gusts. Good luck 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: check out the hi-res RGEM..24"+ SEMA I’ll have to take a look. I mean, it’s tough to be really concerned south of Boston, but I’m remembering several big ones in the last decade that have shuffled SE in the final 24 and left a lot of folks hanging. Hope we can avoid that here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: check out the hi-res RGEM..24"+ SEMA Wasn’t done yet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 The 21z NBM v.5.0: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Are people really canceling Storm based off op GFS with Mesos ramping up ?You know how goes with these. People panicking at every little wobble in the models. Some of us know to hold the course. We’re all getting buried!! 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS was actually a bit too low with QPF, especially along the QPF gradient (like Ray alluded too earlier) but too me it seems the GFS is way too quick in shutting down the CCB. I know the system has occluded but its shutting things down a bit too quickly with 850mb winds coming in at 50-60+ knots. Yeah its more of a northerly component but there is still a moisture fetch from the Atlantic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The 21z NBM v.5.0: Donny Baseball! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, metagraphica said: You know how goes with these. People panicking at every little wobble in the models. Some of us know to hold the course. We’re all getting buried!! Absolutely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 lol you weenies are a trip 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Anyone SE of an ASH-HFD axis doesn’t have much to worry about unless youre being greedy and demand 2 feet. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 24 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Don’t want another under 10” snowfall. No thanks. Blizzard or gtfo 100% this. GFS would be a total nuisance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 27 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Don’t want another under 10” snowfall. No thanks. Blizzard or gtfo Amen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 The issue is they're all cutting back. Plus the closer in we get to go time, each model run is is more accurate than the last. It's not like having a bad run 5 days before the storm. It's supposed to start snowing in 24 hrs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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