“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, hooralph said:

What's up, Ken. I pulled that book out last night for my son. 

Hey how the heck are you! Still down in DC? Still taking pictures?

[78Blizzard]

Let's get real about one run of the GFS.  Yesterday's 18z run had 2.16" qpf here for this storm only, then at 0z it had only 1.29", before going back up to 1.91" at 06z.  Now it's back down to 1.55" at 18z.  I'll bet it's back up significantly again at 0z.

[jbenedet]

Don’t want another under 10” snowfall. 
 

No thanks. 
 

Blizzard or gtfo

 

 

 

[nianticct]

4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Draw the shades.

The only good thing if this storm fails is we won’t have to see you naked!

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Got home about 2 pm. LFG!!   Looks like we’re on the verge of something memorable at the least. I am about 3 miles north of the blizzard warning lol…I’ll expect blizzard conditions. 

Wolfieee

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

18z isn’t cutting back so much as it’s tightening up a bit, which isn’t super surprising 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

18z gfs moved the 2” line from west of Boston down to like Foxboro, so about a 25 mile nudge south 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Let's get real about one run of the GFS.  Yesterday's 18z run had 2.16" qpf here for this storm only, then at 0z it had only 1.29", before going back up to 1.91" at 06z.  Now it's back down to 1.55" at 18z.  I'll bet it's back up significantly again at 0z.

Hope we aren’t doing a Jan 2022. Ended up an all timer here, but rug pulled many in the final 24

[Greg]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hope we aren’t doing a Jan 2022. Ended up an all timer here, but rug pulled many in the final 24

Not sure that was truly an all-timer there. There were discrepancies in amounts down there.

[78Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hope we aren’t doing a Jan 2022. Ended up an all timer here, but rug pulled many in the final 24

I still think many here are on the verge of bridge jumping, .  They can say they are just kidding, but we know better. 

[Typhoon Tip]

If en masse everything moves like that together, you have to question the validity of the input grids/data initialization.  That said, this looks like noise to me

 is not alleviating any concern over this from 12z 

[JJBASHB]

10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Don’t want another under 10” snowfall. 
 

No thanks. 
 

Blizzard or gtfo

 

 

 

Another jump like the GFS and we get clouds.  

[SouthCoastMA]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

18z gfs moved the 2” line from west of Boston down to like Foxboro, so about a 25 mile nudge south 

check out the hi-res RGEM..24"+ SEMA

[VivaManchVegas]

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is the mood in the house bad ?

[78Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If en masse everything moves like that together, you have to question the validity of the input grids/data initialization.   

When you say everything, you must not mean the 18z NAM or the 18z HRRR, which didn't.  Whether or not they are in their zones.

[Typhoon Tip]

There was/is a limit to how much this surface reflection and it's integration with the mid level could actually migrate NW and we're probably just bouncing now along that limit

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Wolfieee

Let’s have a f’n blizzard Brett…!!!   I’m ready. 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

When you say everything, you must not mean the 18z NAM or the 18z HRRR, which didn't.  Whether or not they are in their zones.

I'm just speaking to the reactionary crowd song.   "As though" - that's how they're sounding.  I saw GFS S followed x too, y too posts ... it's nerviness controlling people's reaction without being analytic about what they are seeing.  Hence the "if"

I don't really care honestly.  Folks will engage how they want. I'm just offering that observation - take it or leave it.  But the 12z and the 18z as I demoed above are utterly meaninglessly different at 42 hours.  Ferocious combination of blinding blown choking snow rate hurled along by possible grid contending wind gusts.   Good luck

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

check out the hi-res RGEM..24"+ SEMA

I’ll have to take a look. I mean, it’s tough to be really concerned south of Boston, but I’m remembering several big ones in the last decade that have shuffled SE in the final 24 and left a lot of folks hanging. Hope we can avoid that here 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

check out the hi-res RGEM..24"+ SEMA

Wasn’t done yet either. 

[donsutherland1]

The 21z NBM v.5.0:

[metagraphica]

Are people really canceling Storm based off op GFS with Mesos ramping up ?

You know how goes with these. People panicking at every little wobble in the models. Some of us know to hold the course. We’re all getting buried!!

[weatherwiz]

I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS was actually a bit too low with QPF, especially along the QPF gradient (like Ray alluded too earlier) but too me it seems the GFS is way too quick in shutting down the CCB. I know the system has occluded but its shutting things down a bit too quickly with 850mb winds coming in at 50-60+ knots. Yeah its more of a northerly component but there is still a moisture fetch from the Atlantic.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 21z NBM v.5.0:

Donny Baseball!

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, metagraphica said:

You know how goes with these. People panicking at every little wobble in the models. Some of us know to hold the course. We’re all getting buried!!

Absolutely 

[dendrite]

lol you weenies are a trip

[ORH_wxman]

Anyone SE of an ASH-HFD axis doesn’t have much to worry about unless youre being greedy and demand 2 feet. 

[DomNH]

24 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Don’t want another under 10” snowfall. 
 

No thanks. 
 

Blizzard or gtfo

 

 

 

100% this. GFS would be a total nuisance. 

[Chrisrotary12]

27 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Don’t want another under 10” snowfall. 
 

No thanks. 
 

Blizzard or gtfo

 

 

 

Amen!

[NoCORH4L]

The issue is they're all cutting back. Plus the closer in we get to go time, each model run is is more accurate than the last.  It's not like having a bad run 5 days before the storm. It's supposed to start snowing in 24 hrs.