Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[nycsnow]

Huge hit incoming

[nycsnow]

Just now, Jersey_Snowhole said:

the gfs ai looks nothing like it lol 

But continues to take baby steps west 

[nycsnow]

Here it comes

[nycsnow]

[Snowlover11]

Absolutely clocks southern nj

[nycsnow]

Just now, Snowlover11 said:

Absolutely clocks southern nj

Came n/w got better for most. Legit 50-100 miles away from an area wide blizzard

[Snowlover11]

Showing 20-30” southeast of philly LOL

[Jersey_Snowhole]

06z Gefs is east of the operational. 6z gfs another red flag 

[nycsnow]

6 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

06z Gefs is east of the operational. 6z gfs another red flag 

But west of the 0z gefs and more west leaning members, it’s not like gefs is OTS if anything it’s trending towards the op… wether that’s right or not tbd

[Jersey_Snowhole]

06z euro Ai is east let’s see what euro does. Not having the euro in agreement is telling. 
 

edit: 6z euro waaaaaaayyyyy east. Gfs is pretty much on its own. 

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

06z euro Ai is east let’s see what euro does. Not having the euro in agreement is telling. 
 

edit: 6z euro waaaaaaayyyyy east. Gfs is pretty much on its own. 

The EURO wants nothing at all to do with this storm, it hasn’t for days now. Either it’s going to score a huge coup or it’s going down in flames

[nycsnow]

27 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

06z euro Ai is east let’s see what euro does. Not having the euro in agreement is telling. 
 

edit: 6z euro waaaaaaayyyyy east. Gfs is pretty much on its own. 

It’s barley east the aifs but it’s also not budging it’s pretty steady…. One of these models is gonna have an epic fail soon 

[EasternLI]

I didn't hate the 6z euro. It's not like it was a total strung out pos like some of the runs it's shown. Some slight adjustments to this and we're clobbered instead. Looking forward to see what 12z does with it. 

[lee59]

Both NWS discussions in Boston and Upton say NW trend in the past 24 hours with late weekend storm. Could be medel fluctuation and models should come into better agreement tomorrow. 

[SnoSki14]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The EURO wants nothing at all to do with this storm, it hasn’t for days now. Either it’s going to score a huge coup or it’s going down in flames

I think you gotta go with the whiff runs. What's more likely, a huge blizzard or a whiff especially given the seasonal trends. 

My guess is the next few runs the gfs shifts east. AI models were also east this morning so there's no support of a 6z GFS solution.  

My forecast would be snow showers at best and a miss. Little to no snowfall

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, nycsnow said:

Came n/w got better for most. Legit 50-100 miles away from an area wide blizzard

Definitely a good trend but it occludes before it really hits our area so we don’t get the goods S NJ does. The storm is starting to wind down by then. 

[nycsnow]

I don’t get the euro bowing down lol it’s also been all over place

strung out

ots

graze

[nycsnow]

Hopefully by tomorrow we have a better idea but every solution is still on table 

[jm1220]

Gun to my head I’d say graze at this point. It’s not really an ideal setup for major snow-ridge is too far east and the block looks like it wants to suppress it too much. I’d want other models to jump on with major snow starting today. 

[messier77]

Flying in to JFK Sunday mid-day.  Could be real dicey.

[nycsnow]

KEY MESSAGE 2...
There remains a high amount of uncertainty with the development
and track of a coastal low Sunday into Monday. However, there
has been a clear trend to the NW the last 24-36h in the low
track with ECAIFS, AIGFS, the GEFS, and to a lesser extent the
GEPS. The operational GFS and GDPS (Canadian) the last 2 to 3
runs have a low track that has been close enough to see some
snowfall across the region, but not a major event. Bottom line,
there has been a lot of jumping around of the guidance and this is
likely due to complex interaction between multiple streams/upper
lows embedded within a longwave trough across the western half of
the country. This could still be the case another 24h or so before
we see better consistency amongst all of the guidance.

Given the uncertainty, the forecast has continued to follow the
NBM. NBM probabilities for 6 inches or more are generally less
than 15 percent, highest across LI. Even advisory level snows
get no higher than 20 percent. That being said, the guidance
being all over the place has kept these numbers low. The system
though is very much worth watching because of its potential with
incredible deepening of the low Sunday afternoon and night.
Pressure falls around 24 mb in 12h in the 00Z GFS and GDPS. The
potential for high winds and heavy precipitation is a concern
should a more western track become the consensus.

&&

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

9 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

KEY MESSAGE 2...
There remains a high amount of uncertainty with the development
and track of a coastal low Sunday into Monday. However, there
has been a clear trend to the NW the last 24-36h in the low
track with ECAIFS, AIGFS, the GEFS, and to a lesser extent the
GEPS. The operational GFS and GDPS (Canadian) the last 2 to 3
runs have a low track that has been close enough to see some
snowfall across the region, but not a major event. Bottom line,
there has been a lot of jumping around of the guidance and this is
likely due to complex interaction between multiple streams/upper
lows embedded within a longwave trough across the western half of
the country. This could still be the case another 24h or so before
we see better consistency amongst all of the guidance.

Given the uncertainty, the forecast has continued to follow the
NBM. NBM probabilities for 6 inches or more are generally less
than 15 percent, highest across LI. Even advisory level snows
get no higher than 20 percent. That being said, the guidance
being all over the place has kept these numbers low. The system
though is very much worth watching because of its potential with
incredible deepening of the low Sunday afternoon and night.
Pressure falls around 24 mb in 12h in the 00Z GFS and GDPS. The
potential for high winds and heavy precipitation is a concern
should a more western track become the consensus.

&&

To summarize keep expectations for a major snowfall (6 inches or more) low because right now the probability is low, subject of course to change in the next 24 hours. 

[EastonSN+]

Was there a 6z CMC para run?

[nycsnow]

7 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

To summarize keep expectations for a major snowfall low because right now the probability is low, subject of course to change in the next 24 hours. 

Or they basically said they don’t know lol to much uncertainty

They don’t mention the op euro guess it’s not part of their thinking 

 

 

[TJW014]

Weather balloon data starts coming in with the 12z models. I think by then we really start getting a grip on who's getting what. 

IMO, the ridge is going to be a little too far east for the storm to gain enough latitude before kicking ots. Right now it's showing the ridge vertex over MT and WY. If that ridge retreats west to the ID/MT border, we're in business. 

For now I like Jersey Shore WWA scraper or a miss over a warning-critera snowfall. 

[nycsnow]

A lot of left learners on long range SREF