Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[nycsnow]

Huge hit incoming

[nycsnow]

Just now, Jersey_Snowhole said:

the gfs ai looks nothing like it lol 

But continues to take baby steps west 

[nycsnow]

Here it comes

[nycsnow]

[Snowlover11]

Absolutely clocks southern nj

[nycsnow]

Just now, Snowlover11 said:

Absolutely clocks southern nj

Came n/w got better for most. Legit 50-100 miles away from an area wide blizzard

[Snowlover11]

Showing 20-30” southeast of philly LOL

[Jersey_Snowhole]

06z Gefs is east of the operational. 6z gfs another red flag 

[nycsnow]

6 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

06z Gefs is east of the operational. 6z gfs another red flag 

But west of the 0z gefs and more west leaning members, it’s not like gefs is OTS if anything it’s trending towards the op… wether that’s right or not tbd

[Jersey_Snowhole]

06z euro Ai is east let’s see what euro does. Not having the euro in agreement is telling. 
 

edit: 6z euro waaaaaaayyyyy east. Gfs is pretty much on its own. 

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

06z euro Ai is east let’s see what euro does. Not having the euro in agreement is telling. 
 

edit: 6z euro waaaaaaayyyyy east. Gfs is pretty much on its own. 

The EURO wants nothing at all to do with this storm, it hasn’t for days now. Either it’s going to score a huge coup or it’s going down in flames

[nycsnow]

27 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

06z euro Ai is east let’s see what euro does. Not having the euro in agreement is telling. 
 

edit: 6z euro waaaaaaayyyyy east. Gfs is pretty much on its own. 

It’s barley east the aifs but it’s also not budging it’s pretty steady…. One of these models is gonna have an epic fail soon 

[EasternLI]

I didn't hate the 6z euro. It's not like it was a total strung out pos like some of the runs it's shown. Some slight adjustments to this and we're clobbered instead. Looking forward to see what 12z does with it. 

[lee59]

Both NWS discussions in Boston and Upton say NW trend in the past 24 hours with late weekend storm. Could be medel fluctuation and models should come into better agreement tomorrow. 

[SnoSki14]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The EURO wants nothing at all to do with this storm, it hasn’t for days now. Either it’s going to score a huge coup or it’s going down in flames

I think you gotta go with the whiff runs. What's more likely, a huge blizzard or a whiff especially given the seasonal trends. 

My guess is the next few runs the gfs shifts east. AI models were also east this morning so there's no support of a 6z GFS solution.  

My forecast would be snow showers at best and a miss. Little to no snowfall