Wednesday Feb 18 Mixed event. NoP refresher?

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

1-3” for you at 1,000ft.  Could see a sharp gradient from hilltop to like 300ft too.  Like half inch slush at bottom vs 2.2” paste up at your spot.

But man those thermals are tight.

I’d toss 10:1 maps far and wide in this… what do the positive snow depth maps look like?

If it goes as currently modeled on hi res it will be snowing here 1- 2 hours earlier than 200’ in lower spots . Or at least snowing and accumulating at 32.5 vs snowing at 35 . 

[FXWX]

47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That seems solid . If the flip to

snow can occur earlier maybe Union or something can get 4”

Agree...

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

First and final call. Eastern Connecticut weather First and Final call: Wed 2/18 to Thursday 2/19 issued Tuesday 2/17  @748pm

Instead of arrows used dongs ?

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Instead of arrows used dongs ?

For good reasons 

[JACKASS]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Instead of arrows used dongs ?

Looks more like shiveled up ballsacks.

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

For good reasons 

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, JACKASS said:

Looks more like shiveled up ballsacks.

 

Weird 

[CoastalWx]

wtf is that?

[CoastalWx]

Looks like Kevin is in the circumcised head. 

[mreaves]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

wtf is that?

I thought @Damage In Tollandwas going to hit him with the old “What in Sam hell?”  

[JACKASS]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

wtf is that?

Poor Springfield, sad.

[Ginx snewx]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

wtf is that?

Its you going from 4 to 6 to flurries 

[Ginx snewx]

17 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

Poor Springfield, sad.

Said no one about that hellhole

[dendrite]

Looks good for chodenecticut

[ineedsnow]

0z HRRR shifting back north a bit

[ORH_wxman]

Hrrr is coming back north. Wonder if today was a bit of an over trend? 
 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

0z HRRR shifting back north a bit

Ha it may even get some snow up here.

[dendrite]

It’s the HRRR so take it with a grain of salt…but there’s been lots of beer in the short range modeling lately

[ineedsnow]

Just now, dendrite said:

It’s the HRRR so take it with a grain of salt…but there’s been lots of beer in the short range modeling lately

RAP also came North.. maybe bad data at 18z?

[Damage In Tolland]

Snowy 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s the HRRR so take it with a grain of salt…but there’s been lots of beer in the short range modeling lately

It’s been a tough few weeks on short range stuff. Bringing us back to the first half of 2010s and late 2000s with these shorter range hiccups. 
 

I remember way back during the Feb 2006 storm, the 06z ETA completely whiffed us 18 hours before the event started and we all just kind of shrugged and tossed it like it was normal before we even saw other 06z runs. 
 

That was life back then. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

To be fair, this “system” is kind of a mess to deal with. 

[kdxken]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s been a tough few weeks on short range stuff. Bringing us back to the first half of 2010s and late 2000s with these shorter range hiccups. 
 

I remember way back during the Feb 2006 storm, the 06z ETA completely whiffed us 18 hours before the event started and we all just kind of shrugged and tossed it like it was normal before we even saw other 06z runs. 
 

That was life back then. 

Doesn't seem all that different today. Not sure AI is going to solve the matter. 

 

[CT Valley Snowman]

Yeah this thing is a pita.  Keeping expectations low in the valley with marginal temps and such a  narrow band of precip.  I'm thinking maybe an inch here.  

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Doesn't seem all that different today. Not sure AI is going to solve the matter. 

 

The 2!AE cut is critical

[dryslot]

23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s the HRRR so take it with a grain of salt…but there’s been lots of beer in the short range modeling lately

Its driving me nuts, I'm trying to decide if i want to go partly sunny instead of mostly sunny depending on these wobbles.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Going to be tough on HRRR verbatim for Northern CT with heaviest precip up north and temps 45-50 for highs tomorrow. Need that 18z tic south .. 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Doesn't seem all that different today. Not sure AI is going to solve the matter. 

 

It’s almost impossible to get a full-on blown whiff on a MECS like we would occasionally get back then, but yeah, this season hasnt been a banner year for model guidance. 
 

Btw I forgot to respond to your question about snowfall to date vs climo here back in the February thread…I’m at about 43” I think to date and average to date would prob be around 38-40”. We do still have some beefy snow climo to get through the next 3-4 weeks before it tapers quickly. 

Snowfall is AN but not drastically so…but snow depth days are way AN since we haven’t melted much since mid January…and even December and early January had a lot of snow cover days even though it was frequently 1-3” crusty inches. I think the next 7-10 days will decide whether this season wants to go well AN into the upper 20-25% of seasons or remain relatively close to the median year and be more remembered for the prolonged cold and snow cover rather than actual storms and totals. 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Going to be tough on HRRR verbatim for Northern CT with heaviest precip up north and temps 45-50 for highs tomorrow. Need that 18z tic south .. 

45-50? Lmao 

[HoarfrostHubb]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The 2!AE cut is critical

Retreat path is…up?   Like just float away?

[Ginx snewx]

NAM continues with wagons south