WxUSAF's weak ass frontal passage thing.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Remember when we were in the bullseye on the NAM?  Good times 

The GFS had it’s best run in a bit

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The GFS had it’s best run in a bit

Remember when the Gfs had us getting a blizzard this past weekend?  

[NorthArlington101]

Remember when the Gfs had us getting a blizzard this past weekend?  

Think I’ve blocked that one out actually. Might need you to fill me in

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Remember when the Gfs had us getting a blizzard this past weekend?  

Im taking the HRRR as gospel

[WEATHER53]

Had some greens on radar moving through so that made it and I think tomorrows stronger one will perform 

[IUsedToHateCold]

I will not hug the HRRR. I will not hug the HRRR. I will not hug the HRRR. 

Honestly have zero expectations for this one. If I see a flake I'll take it as a win. 

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

I will not hug the HRRR. I will not hug the HRRR. I will not hug the HRRR. 

Honestly have zero expectations for this one. If I see a flake I'll take it as a win. 

I personally have all my expectations on this one. This is the winter event. Make or break. #ThreeInchesOfSnowOrBust

[Jake Wx]

Interesting trend on the NAM for Thursday which was supposed to be a nc scraper, hrrr has something similar 

[WxWatcher007]

On 2/1/2026 at 1:57 PM, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

This reminds me of needabiggerboat or something like that, who probably had the funniest stuff in the history of this forum.  

[Roger Smith]

Looks like 0.2" to 0.5" potential (snow not QPF sadly) ... Friday night into Saturday may start to show slight snow potential too in advance of bitterly cold arctic outbreak. Would expect some in mountains at very least. 

[snowfan]

6Z GFS. Time to reel this big fish in.

 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This reminds me of needabiggerboat or something like that, who probably had the funniest stuff in the history of this forum.  

He was a funny guy but hasn’t posted in many years. I remember in one of his posts before he disappeared he said he had cancer. 

[WVclimo]

Some very light snow is falling.  28°.

[Grothar of Herndon]

54 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

He was a funny guy but hasn’t posted in many years. I remember in one of his posts before he disappeared he said he had cancer. 

His name I believe was Mike. He was from Centerville.

[Bubbler86]

Very light snow in Pen-Mar.  23 degrees. 

[snowfan]

So uh let's just assume the 12Z HRRR is wrong about tomorrow afternoon.

[dailylurker]

4 minutes ago, snowfan said:

So uh let's just assume the 12Z HRRR is wrong about tomorrow afternoon.

Woooo where did that come from? The lowlands approve.

[HighStakes]

Light flurries on and off this morning.

[yoda]

Interesting... 12z HRRR 

 

[snowfan]

[LP08]

That follow up wave is trying.  The 6z AI euro gets precip to almost ezf if looks like

[Terpeast]

Looks like the follow up is for C/S VA instead of NC... does this trend continue? We'll find out after the commercial  

[Jake Wx]

Anyone seeing this backend feature on the HRRR? NAM shows this too , interesting 

[wasnow215]

Once again a broken clock is more often right than HRRR

[yoda]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1014 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016-504-VAZ053>056-501-502-506-526-527-040100-
District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Eastern Loudoun-
Northwest Prince William-
Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
Including the cities of Washington, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill,
Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs,
Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold,
Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg,
Silver Spring, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville,
Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria,
Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Warrenton, Turnbull,
Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Haymarket, Dale City, Manassas,
Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair
1014 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

...POTENTIAL WINTER COMMUTING HAZARD FOR THE WASHINGTON DC METRO
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...

There is a potential for hazardous commuting conditions for the
Wednesday morning commute. A period of snow is POSSIBLE (a 30 percent
chance) Wednesday morning across the Washington metro areas with
up to an inch possible on area roads.

If this threat does materialize during the Wednesday morning
rush-hour, many roads could quickly turn icy. This could lead to
dangerous traveling conditions, multiple accidents, and extensive
delays.

If commuting Wednesday morning, be aware of the POSSIBILITY of
significant travel disruptions. Plan ahead by allowing for extra
travel time, and consider using public transportation and telework
options.

Stay tuned for updates on this potential winter weather episode.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Latest HRRR throws a band right across I-70 for a few hours.

[Paleocene]

DC Metro area special on the 12z GOOFUS (kuchera for maximum impact); GFS has it falling mostly before 4AM

[WxUSAF]

Hrrr+GFS = victory 

[deer]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Hrrr+GFS = victory 

always a great combo 

[Eskimo Joe]

Latest HRRR doesn't get anyone above 32° - 34° degrees for a high temperature.