February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[Jersey_Snowhole]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Just glad it’s uphill from here on the temps. Today will still be bitterly cold but by midweek we’ll start having real snowmelt and conditions actually suitable for being outside. 

Yep, I am so ready to put this winter in the books. Looking forward to some nice warm temps. 

[jm1220]

Just now, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Yep, I am so ready to put this winter in the books. Looking forward to some nice warm temps. 

If we’re really headed to a warm/rainy pattern, nothing I hate more than rain to dry cold. Let it really warm up then. 

[SnoSki14]

18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Just glad it’s uphill from here on the temps. Today will still be bitterly cold but by midweek we’ll start having real snowmelt and conditions actually suitable for being outside. 

Can't wait for mud, potholes, water main breaks and maybe even ice jams. I just hope the warm up is gradual to minimize all that. 

[wishcast_hater]

20 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If we’re really headed to a warm/rainy pattern, nothing I hate more than rain to dry cold. Let it really warm up then. 

Warmth will be closer to normal but not a torch.  If we do it will be transient - February averages looking to be below normal for the month.

[psv88]

2.4 this morning. Already up to 10 though. Looks like the -1.6 will be the coldest temp of the season. 

[wishcast_hater]

33 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

3.6°F this morning, coldest of the season here was on the 31st of Jan at 3.5°F

NYC hit 3°F as well, though the daily record low is -7°F set in 1934. I can only wonder what temps were like around the region at that time

The heat island effect wasn't as significant as it is today. Between transmission lines, steam lines, water and sewer lines, asphalt, concrete, steel and glass buildings makes it that much harder to get below zero as it did years ago. 

[hudsonvalley21]

-7 was the low here.  Winds calmed down enough locally here overnight.

[WestBabylonWeather]

2.8 on my ambient setup as the low. Now up to 11

went to a bar in Wantagh last night for a 40th birthday. Had to park far from the place. Was not fun

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

And yet didn’t come close to the all time records.
 

To me we've just seen the new rock bottom in temps for this part of the world.

The antecedent significant cold was one ingredient. The second being that this airmass had no mitigating factors on its way to NY.

The only offset was that it originated over a much warmer 70N+…

Have to agree with you.  Had everything you mentioned plus snow cover locally.  Absolutely correct about no mitigating factors on the way into the metro. Snow cover along the route, rapid movement southward and a very favorable air mass trajectory. If NYC didn't hit zero with this not sure what it would take to get there at this point.  I wasn't expecting it to hit zero but was kind of still rooting for it.  Have to wonder if the Arctic front had moved through during the mid afternoon instead of around daybreak if NYC could have squeezed another 2-3 degrees out of it.

[MANDA]

51 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

I equate Central Park's low of 3 this morning to last June's high of 99. These two temperatures are about the absolute maximums temperatures that Central Park can reach in today's climate!

Would agree on the 3 but a properly situated temperature sensor would make quick work of the 99 with the right synoptic situation.  They need to move that sensor back to the castle if they want the readings to be more representative of temperatures in the city proper.

[MANDA]

28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Can't wait for mud, potholes, water main breaks and maybe even ice jams. I just hope the warm up is gradual to minimize all that. 

Looks gradual enough as of now.

[TWCCraig]

20 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

The heat island effect wasn't as significant as it is today. Between transmission lines, steam lines, water and sewer lines, asphalt, concrete, steel and glass buildings makes it that much harder to get below zero as it did years ago. 

Definitely. I can't tell if the -7°F was more due to radiational cooling or strong CAA. A weather station in Setauket on LI recorded -1°F on 2/8/1934, and -11°F the following night on 2/9. NYC hit -15°F that night (2/9) meaning it was a few degrees warmer on LI during that cold snap, at least in Setauket. Though the Setauket station was closer to the water. That suggests some serious CAA that favored NYC with more cold than LI. I don't have wind data, but I'd assume there was a northerly wind, with a wind over the LI Sound keeping the Setauket station a bit warmer. Depending on wind speed & direction, NYC can get colder than LI. In 2016 NYC hit -1°F, ISP bottomed out around 0°F

[NorthShoreWx]

These guys have been squatting in my yard for months.  The words spreading and we have 6 of them this morning.  There's 5 in this photo and the 6th out of frame to the left.

 

[EastonSN+]

16 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Have to agree with you.  Had everything you mentioned plus snow cover locally.  Absolutely correct about no mitigating factors on the way into the metro. Snow cover along the route, rapid movement southward and a very favorable air mass trajectory. If NYC didn't hit zero with this not sure what it would take to get there at this point.  I wasn't expecting it to hit zero but was kind of still rooting for it.  Have to wonder if the Arctic front had moved through during the mid afternoon instead of around daybreak if NYC could have squeezed another 2-3 degrees out of it.

NYC is far too developed to reach zero easily. Sure it could happen again if everything lined up.

[NorthShoreWx]

2 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

Definitely. I can't tell if the -7°F was more due to radiational cooling or strong CAA. A weather station in Setauket on LI recorded -1°F on 2/8/1934, and -11°F the following night on 2/9. NYC hit -15°F that night (2/9) meaning it was a few degrees warmer on LI during that cold snap, at least in Setauket. Though the Setauket station was closer to the water. That suggests some serious CAA that favored NYC with more cold than LI. I don't have wind data, but I'd assume there was a northerly wind, with a wind over the LI Sound keeping the Setauket station a bit warmer. Depending on wind speed & direction, NYC can get colder than LI. In 2016 NYC hit -1°F, ISP bottomed out around 0°F

There was CAA in 1934.  There were reports on LI in local papers as low as -20.  Strongs Neck (i.e., "Setauket") is a windy spit substantially surrounded by water.

[bluewave]

While the temperatures will begin to moderate in the East, the Northeast looks like it will experience a slower warm up relative to other areas. It also appears the drier pattern will continue over the next week to perhaps 10 days. So mostly weaker sheared out systems in the near term with the very fast flow. 
 

[MANDA]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While the temperatures will begin to moderate in the East, the Northeast looks like it will experience a slower warm up relative to other areas. It also appears the drier pattern will continue over the next week to perhaps 10 days. So mostly weaker sheared out systems in the near term with the very fast flow. 
 

Pretty much been this way starting back in late November.   NE last to get in on any warmup and also dry.  NE has really hung tough with the cold this winter season.

[MANDA]

Looks like southern RI and locations NE of Boston take the prize with snow totals last 24 hours.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

BOS threatening their 1918 sub-34F high streak. 

Potentially a record breaker for Boston?

[MarcmmKU]

Hope this doesnt turn out to be a ratter <4” February..

[snowman19]

While the temperatures will begin to moderate in the East, the Northeast looks like it will experience a slower warm up relative to other areas. It also appears the drier pattern will continue over the next week to perhaps 10 days. So mostly weaker sheared out systems in the near term with the very fast flow. 
 

With the lone exception of the end of January storm, since November, it has, by and large, been a dry winter. We are still in drought conditions and really have been since the fall of 2024…..

[MJO812]

Icon gfs and cmc have a storm on the 16th. Possibly  Miller B

[Wannabehippie]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Can't wait for mud, potholes, water main breaks and maybe even ice jams. I just hope the warm up is gradual to minimize all that. 

There have been two water main breaks by me in the last couple of weeks, in almost the same spot in Butler on RT. 23.

 

[Wannabehippie]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon gfs and cmc have a storm on the 16th. Possibly  Miller B

Probably will be a snow to rain, or all rain event for the coast without deep cold air in place.

[Eduardo]

Unpopular opinion here, but I wish the deep cold would stick around through the month—even if it’s not accompanied by more snow.  I absolutely live for snowpack retention and the tundra-like feel it gives us.  It’s what winter should be and I’m loving every second of it!

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Probably will be a snow to rain, or all rain event for the coast without deep cold air in place.

Retreating high pressure. Never good

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Probably will be a snow to rain, or all rain event for the coast without deep cold air in place.

Way too early to say

[NyWxGuy]

16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Retreating high pressure. Never good

And if the storm trends more amped, there is nothing in its way to stop it from advancing as far north as possible. We need cold air reinforcement in order to do well in a setup like this. 

[jm1220]

45 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Unpopular opinion here, but I wish the deep cold would stick around through the month—even if it’s not accompanied by more snow.  I absolutely live for snowpack retention and the tundra-like feel it gives us.  It’s what winter should be and I’m loving every second of it!

A positive for sure. But when the ice piles in the parking lots turn black and grimy I either want more snow or it to start melting. More snow doesn't look too likely so...

[MJO812]