February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Nice

Just another solution that has little support from any other model - I don't question the track though since all the blocking to the north will prevent cutters through next week at least

[Jt17]

Nice

Verbatim would get us nicely above avg for the season. Not counting on it. lol


.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Verbatim would get us nicely above avg for the season. Not counting on it. lol


.

Its all alone.

With that said I do think we see something between the 11th and 16th. Who knows when or precip type

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Its all alone.

With that said I do think we see something between the 11th and 16th. Who knows when or precip type

Yeah who knows about later next week, but at least we know we have the light snowfall coming for tomorrow night into Saturday morning. NAM still looks pretty good. The Euro run that just came out gives us about an inch. The long range HRRR gives us about an inch. Our area still seems on track for a 1 inch snowfall. I want another big snowstorm, but the light snowfalls are nice too. 

[Prue11]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

We've been on the warmer side of those fluctuations.  Not withstanding the previous couple of winters, we're below normal for number of single digit days.

I’ve had almost just as many single digit numbers as 2015 but I’m in “pine barrens” area 

[SnoSki14]

I imagine we could see some heavy squalls with the Arctic front. Some local accumulations of up to 2" wouldn't surprise me. 

[Stormlover74]

Upton issued an extreme cold watch

[psv88]

2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

21⁰ this am.  Consistent unusual disparity here this winter.

12 here

[lee59]

If we get an inch or two of snow Friday night into Saturday, then the brutal cold and wind, could be like a near blizzard at times with blowing snow.

[Volcanic Winter]

20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I imagine we could see some heavy squalls with the Arctic front. Some local accumulations of up to 2" wouldn't surprise me. 

That last one was epic, I'd love to buy a repeat.

Also 12 overnight, 35 now. While above freezing this week I haven’t even sniffed close to a normal high temp in so long it feels very significant. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

By my count, that is 64th place.  There are 63 streaks longer than this one.  Of course each additional day moves it up a bunch.

I use dense rank sorting which doesn’t skip rank numbers.

DENSE_RANK is a SQL window function that sorts data and assigns consecutive rankings to rows, ensuring no gaps in the sequence, even when ties occur. If multiple rows share a rank (e.g., two rows are ranked 1), the next rank is 2, not 3. It is essential for top-N analysis without skipping rank numbers. 

Key Aspects of DENSE_RANK:

• No Gaps: If two rows tie for rank 1, the next rank is 2, not 3.
• Ties: Identical values receive the same rank.
• Syntax: DENSE_RANK() OVER ([PARTITION BY <columns>] ORDER BY <columns>).
• Use Case: Ideal for top-N analysis where multiple rows might share the same top value, but you still want a continuous ranking order. 

 

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I use dense rank sorting which doesn’t skip rank numbers.

DENSE_RANK is a SQL window function that sorts data and assigns consecutive rankings to rows, ensuring no gaps in the sequence, even when ties occur. If multiple rows share a rank (e.g., two rows are ranked 1), the next rank is 2, not 3. It is essential for top-N analysis without skipping rank numbers. 

 

Key Aspects of DENSE_RANK:

• No Gaps: If two rows tie for rank 1, the next rank is 2, not 3.
• Ties: Identical values receive the same rank.
• Syntax: DENSE_RANK() OVER ([PARTITION BY <columns>] ORDER BY <columns>).
• Use Case: Ideal for top-N analysis where multiple rows might share the same top value, but you still want a continuous ranking order. 

 

 

It is a misleading way to rank.
 

I don't say that saying you're misleading, just when you have these come out ranked with this numbers it doesn't give a true indication of where a specific year, date, or sequence of days really stands historically.

[jm1220]

38 minutes ago, lee59 said:

If we get an inch or two of snow Friday night into Saturday, then the brutal cold and wind, could be like a near blizzard at times with blowing snow.

Nice little refresher hopefully. 

[TheClimateChanger]

20 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It is a misleading way to rank.
 

I don't say that saying you're misleading, just when you have these come out ranked with this numbers it doesn't give a true indication of where a specific year, date, or sequence of days really stands historically.

I'm with you guys. This way of ranking makes zero sense to me. I saw Paul/Chesco do the same thing with his 20-day snow cover streak. Turning what was really tied for 36th place with 4 other years into the #22 longest streak, so it went from being something that would occur once every three years [probably even more frequent when accounting for missing data - not sure he actually has 132 years of full data] to much more significant. This gets even more ridiculous the further down the line you go as there are more and more tied values.

So it's actually 64th longest sub-40 streak (of 157 years), which is barely above the median - meaning it should occur, on average, nearly every other year, maybe more like 2 out of every 5. Ignoring all the tied values catapults it into some sort of significant cold spell. 18th makes it sound like it's nearly 90th percentile (maybe 1 every 9 years or so).

One could imagine a scenario where there are three record cold months tied at 18.9F, and the month ends at 19.2F. Why should it be considered second coldest just because the three colder months happened to end tied at the same value? There's no difference than if the three colder months had instead been 18.7, 18.9, and 19.0F.

[SACRUS]

 

Last 4 days "warmup"

EWR:
2/2: 37 / 15 (-2) 
2/3: 36 / 17 (-6)
2/4:  35/26 (-2)
2/5:  32 * so far

 

NYC:
2/2: 35 / 14 (-3)
2/3: 33 / 23 (-6)
2/4: 33 / 26 (-4)
2/5:  31 * so far

[RU848789]

NWS has slowly crept up the snowfall amounts over the last 2 days, from <1/2" to <1" to 1"+.  I know it's not a lot, but 1" of snow with temps in the 20s is going to accumulate on every surface and won't melt much during the day on Saturday with temps falling through the teens, so even 1" will impact driving.  

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I would be remiss without noting this is day 52 with snow cover in Orange County surpassing last years total seasonal of 51 days.

43.0 inches of snow now ytd which already surpassed last years rather measly 32.8 inches.

It's a solid A winter right now. Will see how it finishes up the next 7 weeks to see if it can retain its grade.

[Volcanic Winter]

I haven’t tracked pack days here but I know for sure it’s the best down here since the 2013-2015 block. 

Give me a nice refresher with this clipper and then possibly one more moderate event and this is an outstanding, top grade winter for me - again cold and winter “vibes” counts near equal to snow in my book. Driving over the bridge on 37 going to my parents and seeing the frozen Barnegat Bay for a couple weeks now, it’s fantastic. 

My evaluation improves when I’m not frequently going, “wait what season are we in?” All sensory input points to “real winter” and I’m a happy camper. Not as mathematical/empirical and more an abstraction for me. 

[the_other_guy]

The sun is real warm even on these 33° days. The end is near boys. 

[Volcanic Winter]

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

The sun is real warm even on these 33° days. The end is near boys. 

Well sure, the sun is a giant fusion reactor in the form of a glowing ball of plasma - it damn sure’s going to feel warm in unobstructed sunlight  .

That said, February is still a real winter month and I’m picky, not a fan of March and never have been. To me that’s when winter feels over. Let’s see how the next few weeks progress. 

[winterwx21]

32 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

NWS has slowly crept up the snowfall amounts over the last 2 days, from <1/2" to <1" to 1"+.  I know it's not a lot, but 1" of snow with temps in the 20s is going to accumulate on every surface and won't melt much during the day on Saturday with temps falling through the teens, so even 1" will impact driving.  

I would think snow ratios will be a little better than 10:1 too. It won't surprise me if we pull off 1.5" here. 

[Nibor]

25 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I would be remiss without noting this is day 52 with snow cover in Orange County surpassing last years total seasonal of 51 days.

43.0 inches of snow now ytd which already surpassed last years rather measly 32.8 inches.

It's a solid A winter right now. Will see how it finishes up the next 7 weeks to see if it can retain its grade.

It’s been a good winter. A return to form. Still have most of February and early March left. 

[Roger Smith]

If you read the historical roundup and noted the heavy snowfall of 17.0" over three days in 1920 (Feb 4-6) adding 0.5" more on 7th for the 17.5" total mentioned, that must have included a load of sleet or freezing rain at times because all three days have over an inch of precip with snowfall values of 5 inches and change for each day ... a total of 4.41" liquid for 17.0" snow. If that liquid had fallen at 10:1 ratios there would have been 44.1 inches, plus the 0.5" on 7th that yielded only 0.02" liquid. (so 4.43" for 17.5", a ratio of just 4:1 for the entire event). 

These are the stats for all three days. The precip never set a daily record although the 5th would have broken the 6th daily record. The middle snowfall of 5.9" was a daily record also. I list the daily records because they all indicated other mixed events.. 

DATE ___ MAX _ MIN ____ PREC _ SNOW _____ Record daily precip

FEB 4 ___ 33 __ 23 _____ 1.70 _____ 5.7 _______ 2.10" 1961 (major snowstorm 11.4"+6.0" 3rd)

FEB 5 ___ 28 __ 24 _____ 1.31 _____ 5.9 _______ 1.43" 2014 (incl 4.0" snow after 8.0" and 1.17" prec on Feb 3rd)

FEB 6 ___ 33 __ 26 _____ 1.40 _____ 5.4 _______ 2.74" 1896 (followed 3.5" snow 3rd-4th, no snow 6th)

_ _ _ _ _ _______________________________________ temp 57F on Feb 6, 1896, subzero eleven days later.

1920

Also on today's date, in 1918 max of 4 and min of -6 ... the 4F reading is the lowest max ever for February and tied second with one other date (Dec 30, 1880) as second lowest max all-time after 2F Dec 30 1917. 

The lowest min for Feb on 9th, 1934 warmed back to 8F on that date, the previous day had a midnight high but was probably subzero by afternoon of 8th. 

 

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

31 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Well sure, the sun is a giant fusion reactor in the form of a glowing ball of plasma - it damn sure’s going to feel warm in unobstructed sunlight  .

That said, February is still a real winter month and I’m picky, not a fan of March and never have been. To me that’s when winter feels over. Let’s see how the next few weeks progress. 

On the Jersey shore I'm sure it does. To those of us to the north of NYC latitude I've always looked at the first two to three weeks of March as just another winter month. After the 20th or so I agree.

[LoboLeader1]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wonder if upton will follow mt holly and issue an extreme cold watch. Wind advisory also would seem likely 

Extreme Cold Watch

Issued: 1:03 PM Feb. 5, 2026 – National Weather Service

...EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills of 20 below possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey,
and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through early Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed
skin in as little as 30 minutes.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It is a misleading way to rank.
 

I don't say that saying you're misleading, just when you have these come out ranked with this numbers it doesn't give a true indication of where a specific year, date, or sequence of days really stands historically.

The NWS at Upton uses dense rank sorting and doesn’t skip ranks following ties. I think this makes more sense since we are ranking the temperature and not the year. It’s more misleading in my opinion to skip ranks since it makes the rank more subjective when there are multiple ties.

 

 

 

[TriPol]

42 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Extreme Cold Watch

Issued: 1:03 PM Feb. 5, 2026 – National Weather Service

...EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills of 20 below possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey,
and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through early Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed
skin in as little as 30 minutes.

Twenty below possible? That’s not a weather alert, that’s a medical thriller. Frostbite in thirty minutes means I’ll be counting to twenty nine and going back inside. Cancel all outdoor ambition. If anyone needs me, I’ll be wrapped in cashmere, monitoring my extremities like a NASA launch.

[Roger Smith]

I don't care how they sort, to a statistician, the value after two values tied seventh is ninth, not eighth. 

If you are at the Olympics and you come in one place after two skiers who tie seventh, you are ninth, not eighth place. 

More to the point, if you were one behind two tied for second, you would not get a bronze medal, you would finish fourth. Every Canadian knows this because for many, many years we would always say, hey fourth, not too shabby. 

Back to what you were doing ...

[TJW014]

6 hours ago, MANDA said:

Gotta admire them.  Wish I had learned to surf,  that train has left the station.  Nice video though.  

https://x.com/i/status/2019349379715305856

They're warmer in that water than on land. Wetsuit technology has made some big advancements, even over the last 10 years or so. I have a 3/2 made from Yamamoto rubber that will keep me warm in water temps down to the low-mid 50s. Dries in an hour or two vs needing a full day with my old suits. I have a few friends who have made it a few winter seasons in just 4/3s and 5mm boots & gloves. 
It's never too late to get started out in the water!

[TJW014]

Sun feels great. Getting to that point in the year where I don't need to crank the heat on full blast when getting in the car in the afternoon. It's already warm inside.