February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[Yeoman]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Bad news, aigfs is an op model so little confidence in its blizzard scenario. 

Nevermind the fact it's 14 days away.. good lord people

 

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Alright kid if you're gonna share Beethoven then you HAVE to listen to Beethoven too--it is a requirement 

And he stole a pic i posted before. It makes me sad we prob won’t see that Beethoven again for a while. 

[bncho]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

And he stole a pic i posted before. It makes me sad we prob won’t see that Beethoven again for a while. 

i found the first on the internet (probably why it was the same image as yours), but hopefully this new one helps liven your spirits!

[Maestrobjwa]

Thought this was an interesting tidbit (pretty sure it would count for BWI too, lol): @H2O This further proves your point!

 

 

[wxmeddler]

The sleet really created a heck of a glacial layer that's got an enormously high albedo. That combined with the temps, this snow isn't melting for at least another 2-3 weeks.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

The sleet really created a heck of a glacial layer that's got an enormously high albedo. That combined with the temps, this snow isn't melting for at least another 2-3 weeks.

The melts started in Charlottesville. Finally saw patches of grass where the sheet was disturbed before it could set in. 

[WEATHER53]

16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Thought this was an interesting tidbit (pretty sure it would count for BWI too, lol): @H2O This further proves your point!

 

 

Titian’s of cold  and snow 

[winter_warlock]

5 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

People were so busy punting & canceling that they missed PD3 on the 18z AIGFS… Lol!

Is there other model support besides the AIGFS for this storm?

[Ji]

Euro had a vd snowstorm to out south lol

[Jebman]

Lets reel in PD 3!

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Euro had a vd snowstorm to out south lol

Not a snowstorm I wanna catch. 

[RevWarReenactor]

The 6z GFS offers some hope. Tonights clipper is more north. Friday's clipped is more juiced with some places gettsing a few hours of light snow. VD looks like two potentials; could be rain, could be congrats north carolina, but the potential is there. 

[Chris78]

15 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

The 6z GFS offers some hope. Tonights clipper is more north. Friday's clipped is more juiced with some places gettsing a few hours of light snow. VD looks like two potentials; could be rain, could be congrats north carolina, but the potential is there. 

It's close to a big storm for us PD weekend.

Maybe we need just enough cold not Vodka cold lol.

[Ji]

6z grok

[mitchnick]

Starting to think maybe the advertised warmup will be muted like all the previous ones have been. Could be wrong, of course, but who cares if I am.

[Chris78]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Starting to think maybe the advertised warmup will be muted like all the previous ones have been. Could be wrong, of course, but who cares if I am.

We need the pattern to relax but not to the point it's 60 degrees lol.

The current cold is just to overpowering.

Hopefully we can find a middle ground. 

[H2O]

You know shit is bad when LR thread doesn’t have more than one page overnight. 
 

Doo doo pattern relaxation, doo doo storm tracks, doo doo next two weeks

[CAPE]

40 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

It's close to a big storm for us PD weekend.

Maybe we need just enough cold not Vodka cold lol.

The problem is h5 looks quite a bit different on current ens guidance for that period compared to a 3-4 days ago. The developing NE Pac Nina ridge is stronger and we end up with a largely mild Pacific air mass for the mid month period. Not much cold around as currently advertised. Still subject to change ofc given we are 10 days out. As usual, we just cant know yet.

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The problem is h5 looks quite a bit different on current ens guidance for that period compared to a 3-4 days ago. The developing NE Pac Nina ridge is stronger and we end up with a largely mild Pacific air mass for the mid month period. Not much cold around as currently advertised. Still subject to change ofc given we are 10 days out. As usual, we just cant know yet.

Yeah. Hopefully it's a quick relaxation rather than a 2 week+ change that would come close to closing down the 2026 snow season lol.

For MBY I kind of want the moisture first and hope temps work. Probably the opposite of the low lands. 

My area has gotten burnt the last several years from south and east storm tracks.

I'm not really sure what to root for anymore honestly lol.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z AI EPS has lots of hits to our south in the extended.  Not a shut out look.