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February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

Weather Will

By Weather Will,
in Mid Atlantic

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GreyHat

GreyHat

Posted
Posted

ICON 0z positive and flat out front allows system go ots.

NAM 0z not as positive and has heights rising in the Atlantic and allows system to come up north. Of course it's at the long range that isn't accurate. 

Wait for AI models. 

Screenshot_20260131_221743_DuckDuckGo.jpg

Screenshot_20260131_221920_DuckDuckGo.jpg

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Bob Chill
Bob Chill

Big blocks (especially the NAO) have a history of this. Some of the dmv's coldest/driest periods have happened during strong neg naos. Carolinas biggest storms have occurred during the same. The flip

MillvilleWx
MillvilleWx

Thank God. No offense to us up here, but I forecasted that last night. We love verification. Now, let’s try to get a little refresher this coming week and then track big dog potential after the 9th. 

psuhoffman
psuhoffman

The -AO is going to run the table. This has all the  characteristics of a year with a wall to wall -AO. Do we cash in wrt snow…stay tuned but we have the snowier half of snow climo left to go!    

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Which probably explains why I am so hateful right now. I got 28. Under climo. In fact my climo has dropped over an inch and a half in the past decade. That is ridiculous. 2016 is the last year I beat climo. And it was because of one storm. Yes it was an amazing 40 inch storm. But generally, it doesnt matter here anymore. Cold winter too far south, warm winter too far north. We just cant score here anymore. Add in the fact that i CHOSE this place to live 25 years ago for climate and it makes it that much more frustrating. Regardless I am really close to moving north soon. I am done with Virginia anyways. 

I hear you. But the last 2 ninos did you no good. My only point was assuming a Nino fixes this seems flawed. The issue hasn’t been enso. 

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T. August

T. August

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Just to clarify, we are not concerned about fighting a significant warmup after next weekend? 
 

Trying to not put much stock into the 0z suite tonight 

Seems short-lived on most OPs and ens guidance, with cold air waiting near by. Not to mention the seasonal trend of warmups being muted as we get closer in.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

The overnight runs are pretty bad for "decent" snow chances considering cold temps. I just wonder if those 5H anomaly maps that look so great aren't just going to end up with a storm passing to our west with front end snow to rain, then cold and dry once the cold front passes. I say this because it's just an average and bad things can happen during an otherwise decent averaged period, we saw it advertised last year with no results, and ensemble temps by the end of the current forecasts are warming. I also see the Niña fighting hard to hang on despite it's ultimate demise. I'm not calling fail, I'm just skeptical of those ensemble 5H patterns resulting in snow.

Edit: I'm referring to long range.

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