yoda Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I know someone posted the disco earlier... but the images are tasty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: No doubt. Praying it is right but I know better. Just have to hope the Euro is wrong with the warm nose. Hopefully, the NAM can help us figuring TThat out as we get closer. Im feeling like probably somewhere in the middle which would still be fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Lulz https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd 20:1 SLRs in banding Saturday night with hours of 1"+ snow rates 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 06z finally a tick colder on the Euro/Ai/Eps is great to wake up to. Let’s make it a trend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 WB 9Z NBM 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 9Z NBM QPF bomb, u love to see it. Let’s get like 1.2 down in dc before the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 20 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Eps remain nice. So close to a foot. But I can accept it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, baltosquid said: 06z finally a tick colder on the Euro/Ai/Eps is great to wake up to. Let’s make it a trend. Also waking up to NWS talking about 15 or 18 to 1 ratios with the snow initially. It’s gonna pile up fast. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Comparing 18z -> 00z -> 06z I see two trends emerging, both of which may be in our favor: 1.) High pressure over New England appears to be trending west and stronger. This will absolutely help to lock in cold air. 2.) The ensembles are trying to throw more emphasis on the coastal low, which would cut off warm air intrusion and reduce the mix or sleet risk north of US 50. Let's see if these trends hold or improve today. 20 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Anyone know what the accuracy skill is of the NBM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Comparing 18z -> 00z -> 06z I see two trends emerging, both of which may be in our favor: 1.) High pressure over New England appears to be trending west and stronger. This will absolutely help to lock in cold air. 2.) The ensembles are trying to throw more emphasis on the coastal low, which would cut off warm air intrusion and reduce the mix or sleet risk north of US 50. Let's see if these trends hold or improve today. It’s been a couple days since reading it, but this afternoon is when the northern energy would be in good sampling range. Fingers crossed that there are some positive changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Comparing 18z -> 00z -> 06z I see two trends emerging, both of which may be in our favor: 1.) High pressure over New England appears to be trending west and stronger. This will absolutely help to lock in cold air. 2.) The ensembles are trying to throw more emphasis on the coastal low, which would cut off warm air intrusion and reduce the mix or sleet risk north of US 50. Let's see if these trends hold or improve today. Yea having a coastal involved changes the game for 95 west. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Clear increase in CAD on the 06z Euro. Would *significantly* limit ZR risk in Maryland, and favor sleet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: Anyone know what the accuracy skill is of the NBM? It's just a blend of ALL the models. Not sure how accurate it is, but I do know it includes some of the models we always make fun of. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Mount Holly doing Mount Holly things... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The latest NBM is tasty AF. Let’s goooo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: It’s been a couple days since reading it, but this afternoon is when the northern energy would be in good sampling range. Fingers crossed that there are some positive changes. Good news is that we are going to get pummeled. Feel pretty good on that part. The fine tuning details throughout today will be fun to watch though. I would really love to see if we can get back to a clean end to end powder bomb look. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Both the Euro and GFS are very acceptable. The forecast for dc reads like a forecast for anchorage Alaska. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10. Wind chill values as low as -3. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Saturday A slight chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 20. North wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Saturday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Sunday Snow and sleet. High near 23. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Sunday Night Snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely before 1am, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 24. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 4. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Anyone know what the accuracy skill is of the NBM?It’s a blend of multiple models that does minor bias corrections along the way, i believe. The NBM is used quite a bit by mets at NWS to get an overall idea of where guidance is at 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The northern shortwave/s aren’t going to suddenly get sampled better at any particular model cycle. It won’t be a big increase in high quality data like the recon of the Baja low. It will just sort of be progressively moving into a more data-dense region. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, jayyy said: The latest NBM is tasty AF. Let’s goooo I’ll admit I'm annoyed areas northeast of us are now the hammer zone, but that’s probably being pumped up by outlier models. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Comparing 18z -> 00z -> 06z I see two trends emerging, both of which may be in our favor: 1.) High pressure over New England appears to be trending west and stronger. This will absolutely help to lock in cold air. 2.) The ensembles are trying to throw more emphasis on the coastal low, which would cut off warm air intrusion and reduce the mix or sleet risk north of US 50. Let's see if these trends hold or improve today. TBH #1 is more important. The cold air coming from due north and not NE keeps the dense air more solidly in place. But the two go hand in hand. A stronger HP helps roadblock the low and makes it jump to the coast. So if those trend well for us the warming can be slowed or halted 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 This is a crazy map 9 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: This is a crazy map Watches from the SW to NE instead of from the NW to SE? WOW must be southern stream system instead of northern dry system! lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Comparing 18z -> 00z -> 06z I see two trends emerging, both of which may be in our favor: 1.) High pressure over New England appears to be trending west and stronger. This will absolutely help to lock in cold air. 2.) The ensembles are trying to throw more emphasis on the coastal low, which would cut off warm air intrusion and reduce the mix or sleet risk north of US 50. Let's see if these trends hold or improve today. Wrt the coastal low, there are differences in the track. GFS/GEFS is further south, while the Euro/EPS is north and hugs the coast. Makes a big difference esp for the coastal plain. GFS would have proportionally more snow with some sleet, and minimal freezing rain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Euro def trending to a longer storm like gfs. The front end remains the same but getting closer with the tail end stuff 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Watches from Arizona to New York. Awesome sauce. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Euro def trending to a longer storm like gfs. The front end remains the same but getting closer with the tail end stuff If we could coax that high more west and raise SLPs in WV, we could tip the seasaw in favor of the coastal. Even better for us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Terpeast said: If we could coax that high more west and raise SLPs in WV, we could tip the seasaw in favor of the coastal. Even better for us. Ya kinda like gfs. Just move that low 100 miles south or so and tada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Some nice subtle changes from 0z into 6z for our area. Nothing major but slightly colder upstairs and a slightly better HP position / cold press on some models. NBM GFS Euro Euro AI Ukie are all easy warning level events. Would love to see the trend toward some coastal love continue like the GFS is showing - especially for the 95 & east crew. If we can keep that primary south before a jump to the coast instead of it moving up into WV, it’s game on for a biggie for all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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