January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[mappy]

New thread ahead of 18z runs. 

A reminder:

Keep banter to a bare minimum

put at least some effort into explaining your thoughts

If your posts keep disappearing, take note.

Moderation will be much stricter, but not too restrictive.

[baltosquid]

Just to put it out there, the 18z HRRR is riding on the “slow Baja low” side of the guidance envelope

[JenkinsJinkies]

Euro seems to look solid for the metros.

[psuhoffman]

EPS 50% snowfall, this is an under utilized tool.  Often when we see high snowfall means the 50% is much lower...indicating totals are skewed by outliers.  That is a red flag that the high snowfall outcome is not necessarily the most likely outcome.  In this case the 50% is higher than the mean, which is unusual, and a good sign.  

[WxUSAF]

EPS-AI is wetter than regular EPS now (or maybe also was before and I didn’t notice). Colder too at 850. 
 

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

EPS 50% snowfall, this is an under utilized tool.  Often when we see high snowfall means the 50% is much lower...indicating totals are skewed by outliers.  That is a red flag that the high snowfall outcome is not necessarily the most likely outcome.  In this case the 50% is higher than the mean, which is unusual, and a good sign.  

Would you say a 2016 level event is still on the table? (Or given ENSO 1996)

[pazzo83]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

EPS 50% snowfall, this is an under utilized tool.  Often when we see high snowfall means the 50% is much lower...indicating totals are skewed by outliers.  That is a red flag that the high snowfall outcome is not necessarily the most likely outcome.  In this case the 50% is higher than the mean, which is unusual, and a good sign.  

median vs mean!

[bncho]

Sorry for the debacle today. I'll try to sharpen up in this thread. Trying not to be a complete ass an ruin Randy's PBP.

[MillvilleWx]

I will personally answer any questions and quoted messages to me from the other section when I get the chance. Busy right now. Will answer a little later, so apologies. 
 

Thanks for starting a new section @mappy!!

[SBYWeather]

Does anyone happen to have individual 12z EPS members?

 

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

EPS-AI is wetter than regular EPS now (or maybe also was before and I didn’t notice). Colder too at 850. 
 

 

i just think of Al Bundy everytime i read AI posts

[Interstate]

I would add Storm Mode

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Just to put it out there, the 18z HRRR is riding on the “slow Baja low” side of the guidance envelope

HRRR at range is pretty useless 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

I would add Storm Mode

I disagree. No storm mode until that Baja low gets sampled.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

median vs mean!

we really should use the median more than we do, I find it more indicative than the mean.  

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

I would add Storm Mode

I think if there's a time to make a dedicated storm thread and a dedicated banter thread its now.

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, bncho said:

I disagree. No storm mode until that Baja low gets sampled.

Thats tonight! We aren't making a new thread within 12 hours of this one! 

[Interstate]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

I disagree. No storm mode until that Baja low gets sampled.

It would stop posts like this.

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I would add Storm Mode

For all intents and purposes please treat it as storm mode 

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I think if there's a time to make a dedicated storm thread and a dedicated banter thread its now.

Go ahead and start one 

[weathercoins]

Pretty strong language by LWX:

 

568
FXUS61 KLWX 211943
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
243 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for western Garrett County for
tonight due to accumulating snow of 2 to 4 inches and ice
accumulation of up to a glaze. The threat for a Major winter storm
continues for this weekend with very cold temperatures expected.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Major winter storm will impact the region Saturday  afternoon
through Sunday night bringing widespread snow and  mixed
precipitation to southern areas. Arctic high pressure  will build
into the area Friday afternoon into Saturday  morning providing the
source for very cold temperatures this  weekend through early next
week.

- 2) Wintry precipitation over portions of the Alleghenies late
  this afternoon through Thursday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Major winter storm will impact the region Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night bringing widespread snow and mixed
precipitation to southern areas. Arctic high pressure will build
into the area Friday afternoon into Saturday morning providing the
source for very cold temperatures this weekend through early next
week.

Arctic high pressure will build north of the local area Friday night
into Saturday and settle over southern Quebec providing a classic
cold air damming event. Meanwhile, Gulf moisture will start
overrunning the sfc bdry across the south Fri and expand northward
into our area Saturday afternoon. After review of all available 12Z
deterministic, ensemble guidance including AIFS shows the 12Z
Canadian and EC models remained consistent to their previous runs,
while the 12Z GFS trended more northwestward compared to prior runs
from 24 hrs ago. The 12Z EC also trended colder aloft in the 850-700
mb layer lessening the threat of mixed precip especially over the
northern half of the fcst area, but still with a significant fzra
threat for St. Mary`s County. Probability of a foot of snow or more
is now roughly 50% areawide, except south of the Capital Beltway
where mixed precip is becoming increasingly likely, particularly
across St. Mary`s County. The heavy snow combined with very cold
temperatures in the teens will result in a high impact winter storm
areawide with potentially life-threatening conditions. After the
storm departs late Sunday night, frigid temperatures may pose a risk
of hypothermia, power, phone and shortage of supplies across the
region.

 

[Kmlwx]

TEAL74 flight (Recon) is airborne and feet wet off the west coast for their mission. 

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Thats tonight! We aren't making a new thread within 12 hours of this one! 

We can start a banter thread specifically for the storm though. Some may say that's redundant because we already have a banter thread, but it's kind of fun to have the JV team in there throwing out terrible commentary specific to this storm.

[high risk]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

HRRR at range is pretty useless 

        The bigger issue is that the critical wave is near the western boundary of the HRRR.

[Lucy Pull]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS 50% snowfall, this is an under utilized tool.  Often when we see high snowfall means the 50% is much lower...indicating totals are skewed by outliers.  That is a red flag that the high snowfall outcome is not necessarily the most likely outcome.  In this case the 50% is higher than the mean, which is unusual, and a good sign.  

Haven’t seen median higher than mean too often but I guess it’s not a huge difference. Is there a cluster of members south or way north driving mean lower?

[bncho]

@SnowenOutThere Go ahead and create it. Call it Jan 24-26 JV Forecasting/Banter or something. Gives me a chance to shine. 

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

TEAL74 flight (Recon) is airborne and feet wet off the west coast for their mission. 

Position if anyone wants to follow it:

https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/TEAL74

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Would you say a 2016 level event is still on the table? (Or given ENSO 1996)

This doesn't have that kind of upside IMO.  The trough phasing as far west as it is does introduce some issues...to get the kind of prolific qpf necessary for those kinds of totals (30"+ in many areas) would require an amplitude that in this case would take the primary to our west...and mean we would miss out on the snowfall from the upper level passage.  No second part of the storm.  We'd get the prolific WAA thump but now that last 12" you need to reach those 2016 epic totals.  If the storm were to revert to a less amplified solution which could keep the track under us (like the prolonged cold smoke euro solutions of 24 hours ago) we could max out the second half of the storm but would not get the prolific WAA snows needed to reach those 30" type totals.  

2016 was absolutely perfect in that the storm was amplifying in the perfect locations to maximize everything.  We don't have that here.  I think a 20" event is on the table somewhere if we max out THIS SPECIFIC setup...not saying that is most likely...but possible...and I will leave it to you all to debate what a 12-20" type event falls under in terms of classification...but it's short of that biblical 2016 1996 type level.  I don't see this as having that upside for the reasons mentioned above.  

But anyone who kicks a foot of snow out of bed given the last 10 years...needs their head examined.  

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

@SnowenOutThere Go ahead and create it. Call it Jan 24-26 JV Forecasting/Banter or something. Gives me a chance to shine. 

Done! 

[87storms]

9 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I would add Storm Mode

It’s only Wednesday lol

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, weathercoins said:

Pretty strong language by LWX:

 

568
FXUS61 KLWX 211943
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
243 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for western Garrett County for
tonight due to accumulating snow of 2 to 4 inches and ice
accumulation of up to a glaze. The threat for a Major winter storm
continues for this weekend with very cold temperatures expected.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Major winter storm will impact the region Saturday  afternoon
through Sunday night bringing widespread snow and  mixed
precipitation to southern areas. Arctic high pressure  will build
into the area Friday afternoon into Saturday  morning providing the
source for very cold temperatures this  weekend through early next
week.

- 2) Wintry precipitation over portions of the Alleghenies late
  this afternoon through Thursday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Major winter storm will impact the region Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night bringing widespread snow and mixed
precipitation to southern areas. Arctic high pressure will build
into the area Friday afternoon into Saturday morning providing the
source for very cold temperatures this weekend through early next
week.

Arctic high pressure will build north of the local area Friday night
into Saturday and settle over southern Quebec providing a classic
cold air damming event. Meanwhile, Gulf moisture will start
overrunning the sfc bdry across the south Fri and expand northward
into our area Saturday afternoon. After review of all available 12Z
deterministic, ensemble guidance including AIFS shows the 12Z
Canadian and EC models remained consistent to their previous runs,
while the 12Z GFS trended more northwestward compared to prior runs
from 24 hrs ago. The 12Z EC also trended colder aloft in the 850-700
mb layer lessening the threat of mixed precip especially over the
northern half of the fcst area, but still with a significant fzra
threat for St. Mary`s County. Probability of a foot of snow or more
is now roughly 50% areawide, except south of the Capital Beltway
where mixed precip is becoming increasingly likely, particularly
across St. Mary`s County. The heavy snow combined with very cold
temperatures in the teens will result in a high impact winter storm
areawide with potentially life-threatening conditions. After the
storm departs late Sunday night, frigid temperatures may pose a risk
of hypothermia, power, phone and shortage of supplies across the
region.

 

Well now.. that sounds not good haha 

 

After the storm departs late Sunday night, frigid temperatures may pose a risk of hypothermia, phone and shortage of supplies across the region.