jrodd321 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: I genuinely don't understand what Blacksburg is thinking. My point and click adds up to 8-14", more than any model except the GFS Where did you find the updated 7pm map versus the 1pm one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 53 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Initial snow+sleet forecast... main issue will obviously be the mixing that comes in on Sunday, mainly along and east of I-95. Very excited as my kid is 6 and has not seen a 6"+ snow event. You're going to bundle them up like they're in some kind of a puffy spacesuit and send them out into it and they are going to remember it for the rest of their lives. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 16 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I think the 18Z EURO AI compared to 12Z tried to transfer to the coast sooner....as a result there there was a tick SE with the snow. Whether noise or trend TBD. Ok, but the discussion was about the Euro not the AI. It has been slightly better for multiple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 12 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Best you can reasonably hope for is to get stuck in a melting-enhanced band embedded in some intense frontogenesis and really crank for a couple of hours before changeover. Yea, I know I'm cooked for the bulk of the precip. If I can get .5qpf as snow I'd be thrilled. Once I flip there is no coming back either. What I really don't want is big ice. It's rural out here and multiple lines down could take far more than a day to get back online. We have plenty of fuel, generator, and propane heater so it won't be brutal but it could be quite disruptive if a half inch of ice acretes. The euro is the only model with big ice and I think a good portion of that is an error. This has the hallmarks of a big sleet storm here. NC piedmont is a different story... Our property has a ton of pines. Some real beauties that have been around far longer than me. I'd hate to see those get wrecked. Would be a little depressing. Praying for a sandstorm lol 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Nina MECS for us are really rare for a reason. Northern stream just so rarely plays nice. This is still going to be a good or great storm though! Still probably top tier for a Nina. 3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: IIRC don Sutherland posted in here in that past that 4 out of the 5 tops five La Nina snowfalls at BWI were in January, and were all under 10" of snow. The lone exception was the Blizzard of 1996. I think the top 3 are safe. Jan 96, Jan 2000, Feb 2006 After that the next tier for DC/Balt are 6-12” storms like 1965 and Jan 2011 which this could fall into or surpass. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Soundings like this give me hope that the snow output in my hood is under done. Not sure how this is anything other than snow A snow/sleet mix at worst. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z Euro shows zr on the ptype maps but the sounding looks like this: This is a sleet sounding imo. The euro zr maps are way over done. Yes, there seems to be a overzealous tendency for ZR instead of Sleet on the Euro. I expect way more sleet than ZR. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, I know I'm cooked for the bulk of the precip. If I can get .5qpf as snow I'd be thrilled. Once I flip there is no coming back either. What I really don't want is big ice. It's rural out here and multiple lines down could take far more than a day to get back online. We have plenty of fuel, generator, and propane heater so it won't be brutal but it could be quite disruptive if a half inch of ice acretes. The euro is the only model with big ice and I think a good portion of that is an error. This has the hallmarks of a big sleet storm here. NC piedmont is a different story... Our property has a ton of pines. Some real beauties that have been around far longer than me. I'd hate to see those get wrecked. Would be a little depressing. Praying for a sandstorm lol Good thing is, even on a super aggressive warm nose solution like the 18Z NAM, you may not be completely cooked: Switches over to PL at 2:00am or so at LYH, but it takes until about 1:00pm for it to transition over to ZR. About 0.5" liquid falls as ZR in this run. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 20 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Careful. Vertical resolution on TT Euro maps is limited to the standard levels. Devil is in the details: Well, that location is probably about 40+ miles ESE of his location, which WOULD be a huge difference. That still looks very sleety at worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Sitting here awaiting the Baja bowler 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Good to see the pro mets stick to climo norms with their prelim forecasts. I still think we see at least a foot out here. Unless a weeks worth of guidance was completely false. But with modern models I highly doubt that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, I know I'm cooked for the bulk of the precip. If I can get .5qpf as snow I'd be thrilled. Once I flip there is no coming back either. What I really don't want is big ice. It's rural out here and multiple lines down could take far more than a day to get back online. We have plenty of fuel, generator, and propane heater so it won't be brutal but it could be quite disruptive if a half inch of ice acretes. The euro is the only model with big ice and I think a good portion of that is an error. This has the hallmarks of a big sleet storm here. NC piedmont is a different story... Our property has a ton of pines. Some real beauties that have been around far longer than me. I'd hate to see those get wrecked. Would be a little depressing. Praying for a sandstorm lol 1/2” qpf with those temps and with what I’m sure will be meatballs flowing down from the gods should help to stack up quick before any changeover. RGEM and GFS minimum were bringing it in hot and heavy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 The ice stuff won’t verify for us. Sleet fest will tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Rvarookie said: The ice stuff won’t verify for us. Sleet fest will tho sleet >>>>> frz rain 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 47 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Careful. Vertical resolution on TT Euro maps is limited to the standard levels. Devil is in the details: Interesting. I’ve questioned similar scenarios too when looking at soundings. Didn’t realize it was just connecting the dots at the standard levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 Alright yall, reel the banter in during 00z please. Lot of lurkers, guests and others looking for information. We mods can’t be here all the time keeping things clean, we have jobs and lives too, and honestly we’re all exhausted. Please use storm banter thread and it’s okay to post less. Many thanks! 12 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Even though models have started to converge a little, I still can't shake the uncertainty of this forecast. If 700mb temps are off by even 1c, we have massively different outcomes, especially in the DC/South MD area. Literally two degrees C at 700mb stands between 5 and 12 inches. Tough forecast! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 I now see why 18z cut snow totals for dc to Baltimore and just to the nw. Has a dry patch it’s not cause it’s too warm. 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: I now see why 18z cut snow totals for dc to Baltimore and just to the nw. Has a dry patch it’s not cause it’s too warm. The dry patch is my concern more than the temps. The bust scenario is we get weak sauce before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Partially storm related, but the 18z gfs and 12z euro are below freezing for most of the area until the end of the runs. Absolutely insane. Whatever falls will be here when we flip the calendar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: I now see why 18z cut snow totals for dc to Baltimore and just to the nw. Has a dry patch it’s not cause it’s too warm. We I-95'ers will find one way or another to fail 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: I now see why 18z cut snow totals for dc to Baltimore and just to the nw. Has a dry patch it’s not cause it’s too warm. I see right through North Delaware. I wander if that coastal has any chance of developing further south, and move further away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 I’ll weenie over 48hr hrrr lol 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, Warm Nose said: As mentioned previously, those totals do include sleet. for ex...0.50" sleet at 3:1, almost 2"...Probably sweep, and use force when measuring...no plastic ruler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Whatever the EPS-AI means to you... 7 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, Ellinwood said: Initial snow+sleet forecast... main issue will obviously be the mixing that comes in on Sunday, mainly along and east of I-95. Very excited as my kid is 6 and has not seen a 6"+ snow event. This plus the euro makes me think I’ll be close to my ceiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, bncho said: Whatever the EPS-AI means to you... Means a lot to me, actually. If I see some semblance of support for this at 00z, I'll put a solid amount of faith in it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Whatever the EPS-AI means to you...Unfortunately the ens seemingly can’t factor sleet/snow. Still a lot of total wintry precip 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 I'm sure that this has been hashed out, but I want to emphasize that we're in that time range at which the differences in NAM precip type could simply be driven by synoptic errors, common for a regional model at this range, but they can't be discounted completely due to the NAM being the absolute best at precip types *once it has nailed down the synoptics*. I also would never fully trust the GFS precip type maps *even when it has nailed down the synoptic*. It often underplays the coverage of IP/ZR. Oh, and a friendly reminder that the model cycles all start at the same time every day, and they don't ever "stop". (They can crash once or twice per year, but it's so rare.) There can easily be dissemination issues, usually driven by way too many hits to a server during exciting events, which delay the arrival of everyone's favorite online maps. 18 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Unfortunately the ens seemingly can’t factor sleet/snow. Still a lot of total wintry precip Not only that, but the individual panels are eerily uniform. Almost no variation in track or strength. I wonder how useful they truly are for precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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