January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[yoda]

I know someone posted the disco earlier... but the images are tasty

 

 

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

No doubt. Praying it is right but I know better. Just have to hope the Euro is wrong with the warm nose. Hopefully, the NAM can help us figuring TThat out as we get closer.

Im feeling like probably somewhere in the middle which would still be fantastic. 

[yoda]

Lulz 

 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

20:1 SLRs in banding Saturday night with hours of 1"+ snow rates

[baltosquid]

06z finally a tick colder on the Euro/Ai/Eps is great to wake up to. Let’s make it a trend.

[Weather Will]

WB 9Z NBM

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 9Z NBM

QPF bomb, u love to see it.  Let’s get like 1.2 down in dc before the ice. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Eps remain nice.

So close to a foot. But I can accept it.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

06z finally a tick colder on the Euro/Ai/Eps is great to wake up to. Let’s make it a trend.

Also waking up to NWS talking about 15 or 18 to 1 ratios with the snow initially. It’s gonna pile up fast. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Comparing 18z -> 00z -> 06z I see two trends emerging, both of which may be in our favor:

1.) High pressure over New England appears to be trending west and stronger. This will absolutely help to lock in cold air.

2.) The ensembles are trying to throw more emphasis on the coastal low, which would cut off warm air intrusion and reduce the mix or sleet risk north of US 50. 

Let's see if these trends hold or improve today.

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Anyone know what the accuracy skill is of the NBM?

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Comparing 18z -> 00z -> 06z I see two trends emerging, both of which may be in our favor:

1.) High pressure over New England appears to be trending west and stronger. This will absolutely help to lock in cold air.

2.) The ensembles are trying to throw more emphasis on the coastal low, which would cut off warm air intrusion and reduce the mix or sleet risk north of US 50. 

Let's see if these trends hold or improve today.

It’s been a couple days since reading it, but this afternoon is when the northern energy would be in good sampling range. Fingers crossed that there are some positive changes.

[87storms]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Comparing 18z -> 00z -> 06z I see two trends emerging, both of which may be in our favor:

1.) High pressure over New England appears to be trending west and stronger. This will absolutely help to lock in cold air.

2.) The ensembles are trying to throw more emphasis on the coastal low, which would cut off warm air intrusion and reduce the mix or sleet risk north of US 50. 

Let's see if these trends hold or improve today.

Yea having a coastal involved changes the game for 95 west.

[Eskimo Joe]

Clear increase in CAD on the 06z Euro. Would *significantly* limit ZR risk in Maryland, and favor sleet.

[anotherman]

2 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Anyone know what the accuracy skill is of the NBM?

It's just a blend of ALL the models.  Not sure how accurate it is, but I do know it includes some of the models we always make fun of.

[bncho]

Mount Holly doing Mount Holly things... 

[jayyy]

The latest NBM is tasty AF. Let’s goooo

[Scraff]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

It’s been a couple days since reading it, but this afternoon is when the northern energy would be in good sampling range. Fingers crossed that there are some positive changes.

Good news is that we are going to get pummeled. Feel pretty good on that part. The fine tuning details throughout today will be fun to watch though. I would really love to see if we can get back to a clean end to end powder bomb look. 

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Both the Euro and GFS are very acceptable.  The forecast for dc reads like a forecast for anchorage Alaska. 

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10. Wind chill values as low as -3. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. 

Saturday

A slight chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 20. North wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. 

Sunday

Snow and sleet. High near 23. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Sunday Night

Snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely before 1am, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 24.

Monday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 4.

[jayyy]

Anyone know what the accuracy skill is of the NBM?

It’s a blend of multiple models that does minor bias corrections along the way, i believe. The NBM is used quite a bit by mets at NWS to get an overall idea of where guidance is at

[WxUSAF]

The northern shortwave/s aren’t going to suddenly get sampled better at any particular model cycle. It won’t be a big increase in high quality data like the recon of the Baja low. It will just sort of be progressively moving into a more data-dense region. 

[osfan24]

6 minutes ago, jayyy said:

The latest NBM is tasty AF. Let’s goooo

I’ll admit I'm annoyed areas northeast of us are now the hammer zone, but that’s probably being pumped up by outlier models.

[H2O]

15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Comparing 18z -> 00z -> 06z I see two trends emerging, both of which may be in our favor:

1.) High pressure over New England appears to be trending west and stronger. This will absolutely help to lock in cold air.

2.) The ensembles are trying to throw more emphasis on the coastal low, which would cut off warm air intrusion and reduce the mix or sleet risk north of US 50. 

Let's see if these trends hold or improve today.

TBH #1 is more important. The cold air coming from due north and not NE keeps the dense air more solidly in place.  But the two go hand in hand. 
 

A stronger HP helps roadblock the low and makes it jump to the coast. So if those trend well for us the warming can be slowed or halted

[nj2va]

This is a crazy map

 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

This is a crazy map

 

Watches from the SW to NE instead of from the NW to SE? WOW must be southern stream system instead of northern dry system! lol 

[CAPE]

23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Comparing 18z -> 00z -> 06z I see two trends emerging, both of which may be in our favor:

1.) High pressure over New England appears to be trending west and stronger. This will absolutely help to lock in cold air.

2.) The ensembles are trying to throw more emphasis on the coastal low, which would cut off warm air intrusion and reduce the mix or sleet risk north of US 50. 

Let's see if these trends hold or improve today.

Wrt the coastal low, there are differences in the track. GFS/GEFS is further south, while the Euro/EPS is north and hugs the coast. Makes a big difference esp for the coastal plain. GFS would have proportionally more snow with some sleet, and minimal freezing rain.

[TSSN+]

Euro def trending to a longer storm like gfs. The front end remains the same but getting closer with the tail end stuff 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Watches from Arizona to New York. Awesome sauce.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Euro def trending to a longer storm like gfs. The front end remains the same but getting closer with the tail end stuff 

 

If we could coax that high more west and raise SLPs in WV, we could tip the seasaw in favor of the coastal. Even better for us.

[TSSN+]

Just now, Terpeast said:

If we could coax that high more west and raise SLPs in WV, we could tip the seasaw in favor of the coastal. Even better for us.

Ya kinda like gfs. Just move that low 100 miles south or so and tada. 

[jayyy]

Some nice subtle changes from 0z into 6z for our area. Nothing major but slightly colder upstairs and a slightly better HP position / cold press on some models. NBM GFS Euro Euro AI Ukie are all easy warning level events. Would love to see the trend toward some coastal love continue like the GFS is showing - especially for the 95 & east crew. If we can keep that primary south before a jump to the coast instead of it moving up into WV, it’s game on for a biggie for all