1/24-1/25 Major Winter Storm - S. IL, IN, MI and OH

[Jackstraw]

The pretty high SLR's are gonna play big on totals obviously. Averaging .6 QPF across all the models here which would normally be in the 6in range (yes I know y'all can do math). The farther N the drier but the higher the SLR and possibly a brutal cutoff.  Kuchera ratio's 20-1 all the way up into MI on all the models. Its definitely gonna take a little more time to juice up the DGZ (outside of leeside lake enhanced) up here with the growth zone pretty dry to start. Thats killed us in this area a few times this winter and is usually an issue trying to overcome a dry NE flow. To me, thats the biggest wrench that could happen here. 

It's too bad that as of now there's not much wind on the back end although it doesn't take much out where I live to get good drifting going. If we could get just 20 to 30 with higher gusts it would be bangers. Hate to waste Driftomatic powder. Hoping this thing does a last minute MJ side step fade NW. Make a lot of people more comfy and happy around here 

 

[sbnwx85]

Some of the icing in the Deep South is going to be devastating. Easily 1" of ice in spots from Texas to Tennessee.

[WestMichigan]

41 minutes ago, TimChgo9 said:

That's what it looks like.  First snowstorm for me in a couple of years. (I was in TX for the Feb '21 debacle.) Nebraska winters were boring when I was out there.   My wife is from the Dayton area, we moved out here to be as close as possible to her father.  

NE of Cincy here. 

Currently on leave from work, so I get to just sit and watch the snow as it comes down.  

BTW - KILN calling for 7"-11" 

As a former Ohioan this is what you hope for and rarely get.  Enjoy it!

[nvck]

2 hours ago, TimChgo9 said:

Yep. NE burb of Cincinnati, moved here in September. 

nice, am from the eastern suburbs but going to school in Michigan. will be content to watch this one from the sidelines and hope to get 1-2" up here from it.

[nvck]

Watching the 18z nam closely now... really don't want it's north trend to continue or we'll be looking at some sleet/fzra cutting into QPF. was quite a warm nose at 850 Sunday evening on the 12z. 

[A-L-E-K]

[Chicago Storm]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Unlike Joe, I do think Chicago cashes in, but more than like by means of lake effect.

the lake setup isn't all that impressive, tbh.

[Baum]

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

the lake setup isn't all that impressive, tbh.

I Never count on the lake

[A-L-E-K]

Just now, Baum said:

I Never count on the lake

location: Glen Ellyn

but yeah, not a good setup here

[Baum]

1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

location: Glen Ellyn

but yeah, not a good setup here

In good lake set ups we done well over the years, especially where it’s an enhancement situation. Lake county/ Western Dupage special.

[Radtechwxman]

26 minutes ago, nvck said:

Watching the 18z nam closely now... really don't want it's north trend to continue or we'll be looking at some sleet/fzra cutting into QPF. was quite a warm nose at 850 Sunday evening on the 12z. 

Never trust nam. Lol

[nvck]

11 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

Never trust nam. Lol

[Chicago Storm]

ngl, it would be nice to have one last amped nam run verify, before it's decommissioned (likely in march).

now is it's moment.

[Malacka11]

2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

ngl, it would be nice to have one last amped nam run verify, before it's decommissioned (likely in march).

now is it's moment.

But is it just BSing or does it show what it does because it handles the features you were previously mentioning differently in a fashion that still remains remotely possible?

[ILSNOW]

going down swinging Alek with almost 9 inches enjoy!!!

 

[A-L-E-K]

21 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

Never trust nam. Lol

 

[Chicago Storm]

4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

But is it just BSing or does it show what it does because it handles the features you were previously mentioning differently in a fashion that still remains remotely possible?

it's more phased and put together out west (compared to all other guidance), as ejection of the southern wave occurs.

likely classic nam shenanigans.

[A-L-E-K]

4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

But is it just BSing or does it show what it does because it handles the features you were previously mentioning differently in a fashion that still remains remotely possible?

U will know it's real when moneyman starts posting 

[Cary67]

6 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

going down swinging Alek with almost 9 inches enjoy!!!

 

One last jolt from the paddles before last rites read

[ILSNOW]

snippets from Chicago NWS

Forecast attention this weekend focuses on the major winter
storm expected to have significant impacts across a good chunk
of the southern and eastern CONUS. Locally, our area is expected
to remain along the northern periphery of this large and
expansive storm system, which naturally adds question marks with
regards to how far northwest impactful wintery precipitation
will fall. This is especially the case considering that a sharp
north- northwestern cutoff in precipitation could occur over, or
near parts of northwestern IL. Nevertheless, forecast
confidence continues to increase in accumulating snowfall
falling across much of central into northeastern IL and
northwestern IN, most notably during the Saturday night and on
Sunday timeframe.



While a majority of the heavy precipitation with this system is
expected to fall south of our area, as mentioned, chances
continue to increase that much of our local area will experience
some accumulating snowfall late Saturday through Sunday. The
snow may come in two separate waves, with the first potentially
coming Saturday afternoon into the evening, and a second coming
Saturday night and on Sunday. Interestingly, with the Arctic
airmass remaining in place across our area, the thermodyamics
profile in which this snow will be generated within will feature
a very deep Dendritic Growth Zone (DGZ), likely in excess of
10,000 ft. This will in turn foster a higher than average
liquid-to- snow ratio than is typical for our area, with 20-25+
to 1 ratios certainly in play. Accordingly, even a tenth to two
tenths of an inch of QPF that falls could result in a few inches
of dry fluffy accumulation.

While confidence does continue to increase in at least parts of
our local area experiencing some accumulating snowfall Saturday
afternoon into Sunday, uncertainty remains with the specifics.
For example, as noted above, one of the main question marks that
remains is how far northwest into our area accumulating snow
will extend. This as the precipitation looks to fight with drier
air trying to advect into the region from the Arctic high to
our northwest. The other question resides around the extent of
lake enhanced snowfall along the south-southwesterly periphery
of Lake Michigan Saturday night into Sunday. Low-level
thermodynamic conditions do look favorable for this, and there
is concern that this could result in higher snow amounts along
and near the lakeshore into Sunday. Stay tuned for forecast
updates!

[Chicago916]

I believe in Tom https://www.facebook.com/share/p/17NEQck89Q/

[TimChgo9]

It would be funny (not) if this verifies.  

[Malacka11]

6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

U will know it's real when moneyman starts posting 

Mega fax.

[King James]

I believe in Tom https://www.facebook.com/share/p/17NEQck89Q/

Take it 2 da bank

[sbnwx85]

Euro still drops 7" IMBY followed by 3" of lake effect on Monday. 

[mimillman]

I don’t believe the NAM because it has the all-giving lake effect plume over SE WI instead over Cook County 

[ILSNOW]

2 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I don’t believe the NAM because it has the all-giving lake effect plume over SE WI instead over Cook County 

RGEM is like the NAM.

[roardog]

Slight bump nw on the RGEM

[Stevo6899]

This has dtx issuing a wwa then upgrading to a warning after 5 inches is already on the ground written all over it.

[Baum]

27 minutes ago, Chicago916 said:

I believe in Tom https://www.facebook.com/share/p/17NEQck89Q/

Like living the 90’s all over again.