1/24-1/25 Major Winter Storm - S. IL, IN, MI and OH

[Jackstraw]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

I saw arctic sand at ozzfest in 1998, they sucked

I was snorting arctic sand at ozzfest in '98  

[A-L-E-K]

this is your moment^

[Stevo6899]

The problem with this is that the low pressure isn't that strong overall mb wise so it transfers pretty quickly to a coastal low, which will limit totals this far north. Further south into Ohio should still get some goods before the transfer. Fluid situation tho with Miller b's.

[TimChgo9]

From the WPC, through Sunday. 
 

[buckeye]

2 minutes ago, TimChgo9 said:

From the WPC, through Sunday. 
 

seemed low but only goes through Sunday 7am

[TheClimateChanger]

6 minutes ago, TimChgo9 said:

From the WPC, through Sunday. 
 

*Only through 12z

[Powerball]

13 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

The problem with this is that the low pressure isn't that strong overall mb wise so it transfers pretty quickly to a coastal low, which will limit totals this far north. Further south into Ohio should still get some goods before the transfer. Fluid situation tho with Miller b's.

12z NAM was pretty close to being well-phased and amped up. 1005mb low got all the way to Lexington before being shunted eastward.

Unfortunately, it seems there isn't going to be enough separation of the PV, nor digging of the Baja low, to prevent a quick transfer (which is good for the OV).

Still, the NAM was strong enough that it ended up being a nice run for the Detroit area (there's plenty more snow beyond 84hr).

[ILSNOW]

It is the NAM (useless) I wonder if  DocATL will check back in!!!!

[nvck]

15/20:1 ratios for the duration of the event is insane for southern Ohio. 0.9" QPF for Cincinnati becomes 13-20" of snow...

[Stevo6899]

15 minutes ago, Powerball said:

12z NAM was pretty close to being well-phased and amped up. 1005mb low got all the way to Lexington before being shunted eastward.

Unfortunately, it seems there isn't going to be enough separation of the PV, nor digging of the Baja low, to prevent a quick transfer (which is good for the OV).

Still, the NAM was strong enough that it ended up being a nice run for the Detroit area (there's plenty more snow beyond 84hr).

Yea these scenarios always make me wonder if the low isn't that strong overall and the phasing is the only thing making this a storm. What's preventing the low from dropping below 1000 and kinda bombing/not transferring. Obviously beyond my meteorological knowledge. Cold high to the north shunting it?

[TimChgo9]

26 minutes ago, buckeye said:

seemed low but only goes through Sunday 7am

Okay, so we are going to get more than what the WPC shows.  I guess I best get a few things from the store........... 

 

[Brian D]

^prudent^

[TimChgo9]

13 minutes ago, nvck said:

15/20:1 ratios for the duration of the event is insane for southern Ohio. 0.9" QPF for Cincinnati becomes 13-20" of snow...

That would be something. Temps for the weekend don't get above 20, and are single digits in the overnight. 

[SouthOaklandCtyWX]

43 minutes ago, Powerball said:

12z NAM was pretty close to being well-phased and amped up. 1005mb low got all the way to Lexington before being shunted eastward.

Unfortunately, it seems there isn't going to be enough separation of the PV, nor digging of the Baja low, to prevent a quick transfer (which is good for the OV).

Still, the NAM was strong enough that it ended up being a nice run for the Detroit area (there's plenty more snow beyond 84hr).

If you extrapolate the NAM it’d probably be about an 8-10” snowfall for the Detroit city proper. I’d definitely rather be downriver for this one instead of north. 

[DocATL]

It is the NAM (useless) I wonder if  DocATL will check back in!!!!

Bro…I feel like the GFS is Khan from Star Trek 2 detonating the Genesis device before he dies. For once it will be right. Anticipating a sharp cutoff and a thin layer of coke on my driveway.

[Chambana]

5.3” final call $

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

GFS babysteps northwest continue 

[DocATL]

Verbatim


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[mimillman]

Can’t wait for the HRRR to dump 18” on Chicago from Lake effect 

[Radtechwxman]

7 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

GFS babysteps northwest continue 

Compared to 06z run higher totals aren't nearly as nw as before. Maybe just a sharper gradient. Probably makes more sense with the dry ne flow around arctic high. 

[Jackstraw]

SREF "Doom" Viewer gives me 8in so I'm gonna get 1in lmfao 

[buckeye]

3 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

Compared to 06z run higher totals aren't nearly as nw as before. Maybe just a sharper gradient. Probably makes more sense with the dry ne flow around arctic high. 

actually small diff I noticed, (also on the rgem) is the ns is a bit more flat and slightly further south.   It's squeezing the precip shield and creating a sharper cutoff to the north.   Probably noise at this point but definitely any hope for a stronger, further north trend isn't there....at least not yet.   Actually I'm rooting for nw stronger myself.   In the meantime this is an ohio river valley beatdown!

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

GEM coming in a little southeast 

[buckeye]

pretty solid consensus across the board, 7-9" along i-70.   6-10 seems like a solid forecast.    Been awhile since we officially broke 6" in CMH so I ain't complaining

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

[buckeye]

as much as I'd love that /\   this has more of a realistic feeling to it.  

[Stebo]

Perfectly content with where I sit currently, all but the GFS are hitting us with around 6-10"

[nvck]

58 minutes ago, TimChgo9 said:

That would be something. Temps for the weekend don't get above 20, and are single digits in the overnight. 

are you in 513-land? we need more cincy posters on here
 

[DocATL]

Luckily the bust potential for us isn’t anything crazy. 0-3”. Firmly in our duster wheelhouse.


.

[frostfern]

Well, I have relatives in SW Missouri and they will get slammed.  Unless it ends up even farther south.

A real synoptic storm would be nice at some point, but I’ve done well with the lake enhaced clipper train this past week.  A fresh 4” every 24 hours, even more to the north and west.  Likely breaking a foot of depth before it’s all over (though drifting always cuts down a little on the depth at GRR proper)