vpbob21

In my area I would perhaps generously give this winter a D+. I can't give it an F because we did score with one nice storm (8" on 1/19-20). But the rest of winter was pretty much garbage. Only one other snowfall over 2" all winter (3" on 1/12) and just 23" total. Very disappointing considering how promising the overall pattern looked.

This morning's SPC Day 4-8 discussion suggested severe probabilities may need to be expanded northward into the southern Great Lakes. Would be impressive to get a severe threat this far north in February.

Am following this debate with great interest. I would say my view is somewhere in between (but probably about 3/4 of the way toward the pessimists). I probably have less to complain about than the central and southern OH posters (I got about 8” last weekend). Even with an 8” snowstorm I am only at about 17.5” for the season which is probably near normal – I figure my area averages about 35”. I think the frustration is that after 4 straight crappy winters this one promised so much more. In fact there were some so-called experts that mentioned 1977-78 as a possible analog (OK, so one of them might have been JB). That of course is the holy grail of winters in Ohio. I never really bought into that idea, having lived through that epic winter I always knew that was probably a once-in-a-lifetime winter, but still when the experts are throwing that winter out there it’s hard not to get your hopes up a little. November was encouraging (even though it didn't snow a lot), then the December and 1st week of January from hell. I really thought after last weekend’s storm delivered that we had shaken this awful snow funk we’ve been in. Then we get the snow-devouring rainstorm 3 days later, a modest event that looks to lay down 2-4” across much of Ohio veers up into Michigan at the last minute, now we get a strong hybrid clipper that dives through the Dakotas to Iowa and then signals for a left turn and cuts into Canada. 9 times out of 10 a system like that would bottom out somewhere around the Ohio Valley and then turn up the east coast. So it’s pretty obvious that we haven’t come out of this crappy run of bad snow luck. Adding to the aggravation is that everyone seemed to think that a nice run of winter weather was in store for late January into February with multiple opportunities for snow. Now it looks like we’re going to lose at least a week as the mean trough shifts out west and we go into cutter hell. I hope you are right about this bad pattern only lasting 5-7 days. I for one am much more skeptical. The CFSv2 weeklies are cold all 6 weeks, but all I hear from you guys is how bad the CFSv2 is (if I remember right they were consistently warm all of November). I don’t have access to the Euro weeklies so I don’t know what they think. I’ve learned not to take the 240+ hour GFS too seriously, but man, when it keeps showing warm cutters run after run after run, it’s hard not to get a little discouraged. I don’t think anyone here expects epic winters year in and year out (that only happens in Detroit) but after 4 crap ones and all the encouraging signs, a just OK winter isn’t going to cut it. I haven’t given up hope yet, but have to admit I’m a lot less optimistic than last week at this time.

-23 -13 -24

The GFS is barely any better, has an inch or two from a clipper on Friday and other than that pretty much pitches a shutout at us over the next 16. Sure, most of those deep cutters are out in fantasy range, but it looks quite plausible to me.

Right, the rain wasn't that big a deal. Temps were around 33 and I think it only rained for maybe 45 minutes. I was just shocked that we saw any rain this far north. All the models I looked at kept any above freezing temps well south of I-70. Sure, it was a fairly minor event but Detroit picked up close to 4" out of it and as tough as 4" snowfalls are to come by down here in Ohio, it's pretty disappointing. Especially when up until about 12Z yesterday that snow was supposed to fall over Ohio. Really annoying to see systems go out of their way to avoid Ohio.

Yeah, the rain made it all the way up here to Lake Erie. That's the last thing I was expecting to see. Farthest north I saw rain on any model was about the Ohio River. The WTOD strikes again.

Some surprisingly mild air has reached well north into Ohio with this clipper. Light rain and 33 degrees at FDY and it looks like more rain than snow here as well. I don't think there were any models that showed rain getting this far north.

Just walked outside to get the mail and it's downright brutal out there. Sustained winds probably 30 mph with gusts 40-45 mph. We have been in between bands of heavier snow for the last couple hours but according to radar better snow is about to move in. Hard to measure but probably around 2.5" so far here.

And then the 12z Euro comes in and pretty much whiffs our subforum to the south. Not sure where that came from.

ENTRY FORM APN __76.4" ORD __44.1" CLE __ 49.5" CMH __ 34.7" DET __ 43.2" FWA __ 33.2" GRR __ 65.9" GRB __ 47.0" IND __ 31.4" LSE __ 38.8" YXU __ 70.1" SDF __ 24.6" MQT __ 216.0" MKE __ 44.7" MSP __ 53.1" MLI __45.1" PAH __ 16.9" PIA __ 36.3" STL __ 26.6" YYZ __ 52.0" Tiebreakers 1. December 2018 snowfall ORD 3.6" 2. January 2019 snowfall IND (8.6" normal) 9.4" 3. February 2019 snowfall DTW (10.2" normal) 13.1"

1" of snow here in Erie County. Biggest snow of the season so far.

Even my area got on the scoreboard this morning with .5". Didn't expect it.

And then you have TOL at just .30". Amazing the contrast across 100 or so miles. Not sure exactly how much I've had but looking at my lawn I'd say I'm closer to TOL than CLE.

Nothing but a few flakes here. It's amazing how snow goes out of it's way to avoid this area. Congrats to you guys out east.