Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[Jt17]

EPS looks a lot snowier than Euro OP, somebody correct me if I'm wrong...


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[weatherpruf]

11 minutes ago, TriPol said:

*clears throat*

It's time for the obligatory...

It's nowcasting time.

at least we don't have the dreaded coastal flood watch....usually indicating a flip to rains....

[wthrmn654]

Latest snowfall forecast updated below, along with upgrades to winter storm warnings for the entire area from early Sunday through much of Monday. Totals have increased a bit across the interior and decreased slightly southeast portions of the area.  We've also introduced some light ice accumulation for LI and southern parts of NYC for the potential mixing late Sunday/early Monday.  Full briefing out in a bit. For those looking for weather information adjacent to our area of coverage, check out the latest winter weather forecasts from our colleagues at Boston/Norton, Philadelphia/Mt Holly, Albany, and Binghamton.

 

[SI Mailman]

I’m being conservative and going 6 to 10 for my backyard. I’ll bump it up if the sleet line keeps shifting south

[Winterweatherlover]

39 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

I guess  they didnt see the euro..i dont know why the euro is hardly being discussed here..some of the lowest qpf and lowest snow amounts

Because it's an outlier right now in terms of qpf and often too dry until the last minute. 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Latest snowfall forecast updated below, along with upgrades to winter storm warnings for the entire area from early Sunday through much of Monday. Totals have increased a bit across the interior and decreased slightly southeast portions of the area.  We've also introduced some light ice accumulation for LI and southern parts of NYC for the potential mixing late Sunday/early Monday.  Full briefing out in a bit. For those looking for weather information adjacent to our area of coverage, check out the latest winter weather forecasts from our colleagues at Boston/Norton, Philadelphia/Mt Holly, Albany, and Binghamton.

 

Looks about the same here. Still maybe a little high for me, but I can see how 12” happens if all goes well and we keep the SE ticks plus higher QPF.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, SI Mailman said:

I’m being conservative and going 6 to 10 for my backyard. I’ll bump it up if the sleet line keeps shifting south

Yeah that's what I'm telling people as well. I want to see the nam hold through tomorrow before I'll be more confident in double digits.  There's still time for the dreaded last minute northerly shift

[Winterweatherlover]

Based on uptons point and clicks it seems they think sleet line makes it up to about the cross country parkway. Doesn't really matter anyway since everyone is getting 10+ to the ocean per upton. 

[sussexcountyobs]

From Mt. Holly

Affected Area

Portions of northern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania

Description

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 12 and 18 inches and ice accumulations around a light glaze. WHERE...Portions of northern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. WHEN...From 1 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday.

[Mo Snow]

Wish the Patriots were hosting the AFC Championship game. Could've been an all timer snow game on Sunday

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

We’ll see, hopefully you’re right. If the sleet line just barely gets here or goes back and forth we have a real shot at 12”. 

I think we've got a good shot.  It'll be a little deflating when the pinging starts, but after its over we'll feel it wasn't that bad.

[RDRY]

14 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Because it's an outlier right now in terms of qpf and often too dry until the last minute. 

UKIE agrees with it. At least for the city.

[Yanksfan]

I just got an alert on my phone for 10-14”.

[Jt17]

UKIE agrees with it. At least for the city.

I could be wrong but pretty sure they share a lot of the same physics


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[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I think we've got a good shot.  It'll be a little deflating when the pinging starts, but after its over we'll feel it wasn't that bad.

It’ll just make the snowpack denser. I don’t mind some sleet at the end. In Feb 2007 I was in that mess in PA and it was like goopy cement and lasted forever. 

[RDRY]

5 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

I could be wrong but pretty sure they share a lot of the same physics


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I believe so.

[NorthShoreWx]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’ll just make the snowpack denser. I don’t mind some sleet at the end. In Feb 2007 I was in that mess in PA and it was like goopy cement and lasted forever. 

How were the temperatures there in the 2007 storm?

[TriPol]

13 minutes ago, Mo Snow said:

Wish the Patriots were hosting the AFC Championship game. Could've been an all timer snow game on Sunday

And endure 25 minutes of non-stop replays about the tuck rule? I think I'm good.

[sussexcountyobs]

From EPAWA text alert just now:

Sussex: Snow arrives 4-6am Sunday, heavy at times through Sunday night, ending as snow showers early Monday AM.

Snow: 12-18 inches, isolated >18 poss.

[Yanksfan]

39 minutes ago, hooralph said:

Winter Storm Warning issued January 23 at 1:12PM EST until January 26 at 6:00PM EST by NWS Upton NY

Description * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 10 and 14 inches. A changeover to a wintry mix is possible Sunday evening and could lead to additional sleet accumulation and a glaze of ice before a change back over to light snow later Sunday night. Isolated wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph are possible for eastern long Island. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 3 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and blowing snow.

What You Should Do Persons should consider delaying travel from Sunday into Monday. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Make sure your car is winterized and in good working order. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.

Affected Areas Eastern Passaic; Hudson; Western Bergen; Eastern Bergen; Western Essex; Eastern Essex; Western Union; Eastern Union; Southern Westchester; New York (Manhattan); Bronx; Richmond (Staten Is.); Kings (Brooklyn); Northwest Suffolk; Northeast Suffolk; Southwest Suffolk; Southeast Suffolk; Northern Queens; Northern Nassau; Southern Queens; Southern Nassau

If we see a couple of ticks south with the sleet line later on at 18z and 00z, look for those snow totals to be 12-18”.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

How were the temperatures there in the 2007 storm?

In the teens. I was in State College-started as snow and pounded sleet for hours overnight. Then back to snow in the morning as the coastal got going. In total I think there was 11” but never got near freezing.

[Tatamy]

3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

How were the temperatures there in the 2007 storm?

Where I was in the Lehigh Valley we had 5 degrees and pouring rain.  I have never seen anything like that.

[Wannabehippie]

I am sticking with my 0"-100" total snow fall total from this weekend's storm for the forecast area. Prove me wrong storm, prove me wrong.

[DreamBig]

If you're a Christopher Walken fan, let's agree on somewhere between three and four hundred inches.

[eduggs]

No concerns on the 18z HRRR through 29hrs. It's a touch flatter, colder, and slower down south... exactly what I was hoping to see. But it's obviously not impacting us yet. Sure the HRRR is less reliable at range, but its 6-hr trends are sometimes useful.

[David-LI]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

No concerns on the 18z HRRR through 29hrs. It's a touch flatter, colder, and slower down south... exactly what I was hoping to see. But it's obviously not impacting us yet. Sure the HRRR is less reliable at range, but its 6-hr trends are sometimes useful.

Keep these HRRR updates coming!

[Radius]

"Run me out in the cold rain and snow"

IYKYK

[SACRUS]

 

1/23 18Z nam is updating

 

[eduggs]

No noteworthy changes between the 18z and 12z HRRR through 41 hours outside typical noise. 850mb heights look a tiny bit flatter. 

[RU848789]

I think everyone knows we have warnings up for everyone covered by the NWS-Philly and NYC offices. A summary is bulleted below, as I find wading through the full text to be tedious; the first 4 bullets are the counties under the NWS-Philly, while the last 2 are under NWS-NYC. One can argue that these numbers are a bit aggressive vs. other forecasters, but the NWS hasn't wavered, really, other than knocking down snowfall forecasts a bit south of 78 due to some sleet and adding in some ZR. There are also some models that show 10"+ amounts given good ratios (like 12-15:1), so it's not like the forecast is crazy, just higher than most; their latest map s arebelow. With temps below 20F for most and some wind, it'll be frigid and salt won't work as well, plus there will be some wind (20-25 mph) so some drifting is possible.
 

• For counties S of 276/195 in SEPA/SNJ/N DE, the warning is for 8-12" of snow/sleet plus about 0.3" of freezing rain (ZR)
• For Atlantic/Cape May counties and southern DE, the warning is for 6-10" of snow/sleet plus about 0.1" ZR
• For Sussex/Warren/Poconos/Lehigh Valley, the warning is for 12-18" of snow plus a light glaze of ZR
• For Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Monmouth-Mercer-Ocean-W Montco and Bucks, the warning is for 10-15" of snow/sleet, plus about 0.1" of ZR
• For W. Passaic, the entire Hudson Valley and the coastal CT counties, the warning is for 12-16" of snow
• For NENJ (Union/Essex/Hudson/Bergen/E Passaic), NYC and LI, the warning is for 10-14" snow/sleet plus a light glaze of ZR

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=winter storm warning