Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow 1/25 - 1/26

[eduggs]

I gotta admit, the GFS/AIGFS make me nervous. That ULL in the Southwest has to eject. AND it needs to be well timed with northern stream shortwaves dropping south through MT and the Dakotas. There are always failure modes.

[SnowGoose69]

CMC was just slower overall but also moved towards the more east later transfer idea.  I said last night that either happens way west in the TN Valley or in coastal SC/GA in these setups.  It won't typically happen over WRN GA/AL.  

[IrishRob17]

15 minutes ago, hooralph said:

PBP are usually brutal - full of overreactions and bad early takes. 

 

5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

cmc is a big hit

Some things don't change. 

[winterwx21]

CMC keeps the snow going all day Monday. Not heavy but a very long duration event. 

[MJO812]

Cmc goes from Sunday to Tuesday with 2 lows.

[Nibor]

Canadian shows a second low again.

[eduggs]

The CMC would be the best storm for most in many many years. It has literally all the ingredients that we love: cold temperatures, all-snow, long duration, includes part of weekend, high QPF. Anyone saying it's not a big storm is crazy. It might not drop record snow anywhere/everywhere, but in a few spots that could rival the big ones even as depicted.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I gotta admit, the GFS/AIGFS make me nervous. That ULL in the Southwest has to eject. AND it needs to be well timed with northern stream shortwaves dropping south through MT and the Dakotas. There are always failure modes.

 

Gfs has always been horrible with big storms.

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

 

Some things don't change. 

i would take cmc all day, it develops another low something like the euro showed last night and snows all day monday into tuesday morning that's like 36 hours of snow

[EastonSN+]

So far for 12z

HITS:

ICON

CMC

 

MISS:

GFS

AIGFS

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

The CMC would be the best storm for most in many many years. It has literally all the ingredients that we love: cold temperatures, all-snow, long duration, includes part of weekend, high QPF. Anyone saying it's not a big storm is crazy. It might not drop record snow anywhere/everywhere, but in a few spots that could rival the big ones even as depicted.

Yea dream scenario right there.i think we're starting to get our "goalpost" established 

[WeatherGeek2025]

[Jt17]

The CMC would be the best storm for most in many many years. It has literally all the ingredients that we love: cold temperatures, all-snow, long duration, includes part of weekend, high QPF. Anyone saying it's not a big storm is crazy. It might not drop record snow anywhere/everywhere, but in a few spots that could rival the big ones even as depicted.

Every single cent of this storm would stick and pile up even in Manhattan. A rarity


.

[SACRUS]

 

GGEM 0.8 yields 8 inch at 10:1  and over a foot with >12:1 ratios.

[NEG NAO]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

So far for 12z

HITS:

ICON

CMC

 

MISS:

GFS

GFS many times seems to be by itself especially at this range - too overdone or underdone with amounts

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

CMC keeps the snow going all day Monday. Not heavy but a very long duration event. 

At least with these temps we will not have to worry about rates overcoming borderline temps.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

GFS many times seems to be by itself especially at this range - too overdone or underdone with amounts

Agree. What does give me pause is the AIGFS.

[jm1220]

Just want to emphasize again that snow ratios aren’t determined by surface temps when it’s below freezing. It’s much  more determined by the snow growth and to some extent winds. Strong winds break the flakes apart which lead to lower ratios and it’s quite possible to have very cold surface temps in the teens but bad ratios because of bad snow growth-sand or needle flakes. You want saturation and lift in the atmosphere layer between -12 and -18C, that creates dendrite flakes that pile up efficiently. I’ve seen it happen several times where it would snow at like 10 degrees but sand flakes that accumulate like molasses. 

[NEG NAO]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Agree. What does give me pause is the AIGFS.

I think the AIGFS has inherited some of the bad traits of the regular GFS

[Stormlover74]

GFS ens is way north of the op

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

GFS ens is way north of the op

But worse than and south of 6z. Not terrible but still room for improvement.

[MJO812]

Just now, eduggs said:

But worse than and south of 6z. Not terrible but still room for improvement.

Throw the op out 

[jm1220]

21 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Lol icon moved north, gfs went south basically a flip by both.

As always with any major storm there are a lot of moving parts and pieces that have to work out. It’s still wait and see for the next couple days and we shouldn’t overreact either way. Of course some will lol. 

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

But worse than and south of 6z. Not terrible but still room for improvement.

we seem to experience this GFS OP nonsense practically every event its the King of the extreme solutions

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, eduggs said:

But worse than and south of 6z. Not terrible but still room for improvement.

The reality is I don't think is a jackpot strom for the subforum, this feels like a DC classic or maybe even south of there. If it turns up the coast then this subforum could still get some snow. Idk thats my two sense just going by the pattern and high to the north.

[Stormlover74]

Ukie looks great again

[MJO812]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Ukie looks great again

Better than 0z 

[SACRUS]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I think the AIGFS has inherited some of the bad traits of the regular GFS

Bottom-line guidance (recent assessment)

Best single model for East Coast winter storms: ECMWF IFS

Best long-range track sanity check: GraphCast / AIFS

Worst use of AI: trusting snowfall maps or precip type

Best blend: AI for where, physics for how much & what type

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

we seem to experience this GFS OP nonsense practically every event

90% of the time when the gfs is alone its wrong. If euro follows then we can be concerned. Or course models often lose the storm in this range anyway even the good ones

[WeatherGeek2025]

UK shows the perfect track for us!