Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, MarcmmKU said:

I feel this is way too aggressive for I95

I agree. I posted it, because a member mentioned that the 10:1 ratios don't reflect further north. I think it's too aggressive and too cold for the I-95 Corridor.

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

I feel this is way too aggressive for I95

does that include sleet accumulation ?

[WeatherGeek2025]

6-10 inches by followed by 2 inches of sleet! this snow will last into March lol

 

Sleet is happening we got consensus now we have to just look at radar and nowcast 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree. I posted it, because a member mentioned that the 10:1 ratios don't reflect further north. I think it's too aggressive and too cold for the I-95 Corridor.

so what is the best mesoscale model to use this go around ? The HRRR performed well last weekend

[eduggs]

The lead in forecast evolution for tomorrow's storm reminds me a lot of the December 2020 across our area (differences of course especially SNE and mid-Atl). The big snows for that one slipped away too but the impact was still significant locally.

[kat5hurricane]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I think 6-10 is the best guess for NYC.  Nothing shows 12.

Gfs is trash

I don't see 10 tbh, maybe in the northern Bronx but this looks to be a quick heavy thump with a few hours of heavy rates. 4-8" might be a better call. The NWS also went overly aggressive, like way too aggressive so those totals will be lowered soon I'd think.

The GFS should almost always be discounted especially when it's on its own like it was in this case.

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

6-10 inches by followed by 2 inches of sleet! this snow will last into March lol

 

Sleet is happening we got consensus now we have to just look at radar and nowcast 

True it's not all bad, just dissapointing given the expectations but also the writing has kind of been on the wall for a few days now. The sleet will at least keep the snow from going anywhere for a long time.

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

GFS is just an absolutely attrocious model, 10 straight runs or so of all/mainly snow in NYC and now this. Why not get rid of the gfs instead of the NAM?

If you understand the pattern and type of system we have it’s not too difficult to figure out what we’re dealing with. We have a deepening trough too far west and SE ridging, retreating confluence and retreating high. The difference between this and 10000 other lame SWFEs in the past is the big overrunning surface in place and high pressure to provide a wide area of heavy snow before the warm mid levels win out. But eventually it will win out, that was clear 2-3 days ago. It’s a matter of maxing out the snow when the cold air is still there. This is a setup that favors heavy snow along I-90 not here, and eventually every model was going to figure that out. Sucks but we can’t change it. Hopefully we can make more happen with all the cold air we’ll have for the next 10 days, the pattern looks to become more favorable for our type of storm. 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The lead in forecast evolution for tomorrow's storm reminds me a lot of the December 2020 across our area (differences of course especially SNE and mid-Atl). The big snows for that one slipped away too but the impact was still significant locally.

I was thinking a couple days ago that this one has similarities locally to that storm. 

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

If you understand the pattern and type of system we have it’s not too difficult to figure out what we’re dealing with. We have a deepening trough too far west and SE ridging, retreating confluence and retreating high. The difference between this and 10000 other lame SWFEs in the past is the big overrunning surface in place and high pressure to provide a wide area of heavy snow before the warm mid levels win out. But eventually it will win out, that was clear 2-3 days ago. It’s a matter of maxing out the snow when the cold air is still there. This is a setup that favors heavy snow along I-90 not here, and eventually every model was going to figure that out. Sucks but we can’t change it. Hopefully we can make more happen with all the cold air we’ll have for the next 10 days, the pattern looks to become more favorable for our type of storm. 

Your post is making it like the area isn’t seeing much lol…. I’m 30 miles north of the city and still could see a foot. 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, jm1220 said:

If you understand the pattern and type of system we have it’s not too difficult to figure out what we’re dealing with. We have a deepening trough too far west and SE ridging, retreating confluence and retreating high. The difference between this and 10000 other lame SWFEs in the past is the big overrunning surface in place and high pressure to provide a wide area of heavy snow before the warm mid levels win out. But eventually it will win out, that was clear 2-3 days ago. It’s a matter of maxing out the snow when the cold air is still there. This is a setup that favors heavy snow along I-90 not here, and eventually every model was going to figure that out. Sucks but we can’t change it. Hopefully we can make more happen with all the cold air we’ll have for the next 10 days, the pattern looks to become more favorable for our type of storm. 

True I was thinking this should be our storm given the level of cold air in place but then I remember the 90s and how we'd be at 10 degrees and go snow to sleet to rain. At least we're not 10 degrees today and pouring tomorrow so that's good.

[Snowman92]

All the crazy shopping and people going nuts on the news for about 6 hours of light snow and 4 hours of heavy snow

[Snowlover11]

Disappointed but that happens when you model hug and hope for high expectations. Still a decent storm but hoping for over a foot you’ll be on a cliff.

[coastalplainsnowman]

58 minutes ago, hooralph said:

The NAM is the Aaron Rodgers of models

• Clearly ready for the exit
• Was always flawed but racked up some big wins in its career
• Problematic in ways that distract from its strengths (but fans like it for being "contrarian")
• People vigorously rooting for it to lose
• Still capable of some key plays that make it impossible to write off

 

This is great, but I was waiting for some reference to its Achilles' heel, not that I would know what that might be.

[JonClaw]

No changes to Upton's AFD as of 10:29AM

[SACRUS]

12z GFS

QPF

 

Snowfall

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

This is turning into an absolute joke of a storm. lol high end winter weather advisory 

Definitely not. The combination of snow/sleet + cold temps are definitely warning criteria. 

In many ways the ice component will make this worse than a standard 1 foot snowstorm 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

This is turning into an absolute joke of a storm. lol high end winter weather advisory 

The ice accumulation  potential and very cold temps make it  a winter storm warning

[coastalplainsnowman]

37 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I agree with you. Discount the NAM at your own risk at this range. Especially since the new RRFS is trending towards it. Over the years people have been burned really bad tossing the NAM in these types of setups

How does that old saying go?  When snowman19 appears in the thread, that means 6 more inches of sleet?

Just kidding, appreciate your pov..

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Definitely not. The combination of snow/sleet + cold temps are definitely warning criteria. 

In many ways the ice component will make this worse than a standard 1 foot snowstorm 

Need a jack hammer to shovel. Might have to clear the snow before it changes 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

12z GFS

QPF

 

Snowfall

very deceiving for areas receiving the heavy sleet accumulation also

[nycsnow]

Still A lot of time to trend either way which can be good or bad. Like we’ve been saying 2-4 hour difference is literally inches of snow

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

I don't see 10 tbh, maybe in the northern Bronx but this looks to be a quick heavy thump with a few hours of heavy rates. 4-8" might be a better call. The NWS also went overly aggressive, like way too aggressive so those totals will be lowered soon I'd think.

The GFS should almost always be discounted especially when it's on its own like it was in this case.

Who knows if the models are even right with the progression of the sleet line.  Nothing except the outlier nam shows 4 or 5 inches. 

[wxman]

9 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The lead in forecast evolution for tomorrow's storm reminds me a lot of the December 2020 across our area (differences of course especially SNE and mid-Atl). The big snows for that one slipped away too but the impact was still significant locally.

Ahh, memories:

 

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ

318 AM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

 

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105-162300-

/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0001.201216T1700Z-201217T1500Z/

Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-

Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-

Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,

Flemington, Somerville, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading,

Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford, Collegeville,

Pottstown, Chalfont, and Perkasie

318 AM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO

10 AM EST THURSDAY...

 

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to

20 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

 

* WHERE...Portions of northern and northwest New Jersey and east

central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania.

 

* WHEN...From noon today to 10 AM EST Thursday.

 

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The

hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute tonight

and the morning commute on Thursday. Heavy snow and gusty winds

could result in power outages.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will move in from southwest to

northeast this afternoon and early evening. The snow could

become heavy at times tonight before ending Thursday morning.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in

your vehicle in case of an emergency.

 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can

be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

 

&&

 

$$

 

[NEG NAO]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Need a jack hammer to shovel. Might have to clear the snow before it changes 

and then when its sleeting keep shoveling it

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

so what is the best mesoscale model to use this go around ? The HRRR performed well last weekend

At this stage, I'm using a combination of all of them. I think by 18z we'll see some convergence among them. I generally prefer the RGEM except when it's an outlier among the mesoscale models. Once we're < 24 hours out, I start giving more weight to the HRRR. 

[Prue11]

5 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

This is turning into an absolute joke of a storm. lol high end winter weather advisory 

It hasn’t even started yet and like @jm1220said the swfe storms very rarely give the coast a big snowfall. We’d all be begging for this one last winter 

 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Snowman92 said:

All the crazy shopping and people going nuts on the news for about 6 hours of light snow and 4 hours of heavy snow

The stores were a mess yesterday.  Schools might also close on Monday .

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Still A lot of time to trend either way which can be good or bad. Like we’ve been saying 2-4 hour difference is literally inches of snow

The overall setup isn't going to trend at this point but the timing and intensity of the front end thump could still make a big difference between like 5 and 10 inches for many in this subforum. 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

very deceiving for areas receiving the heavy sleet accumulation also

Yeah my area might get 2"+ of sleet accumulation on top of 5-6" of snow. That's a very big deal and temps stay several degrees below freezing 

Will be an absolute nightmare to deal with though. Clearing that stuff out will suck