January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Weather Will]

1pm

[Steve25]

2 hours ago, Steve25 said:

It would be just like the GFS if it’s a hit at 12z while everything else stays or moves further out to sea lol

Because of course lol. Hopefully the CMC and Euro trend favorably too! 

[osfan24]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

I hate to say this but the GfS just adds confusion.  It constantly plays catch up to the other models

Of course I want it to be right but.....

Right. I put as much stock in the GFS as I do the NAM, maybe even less, these days. Part of me wonders if it’s just chasing the Euro’s tail and is just a full 24 hours or so behind it. I guess we will find out in 90 minutes or so.

FWIW, that Google AI product at 6z was a coastal scraper.

[Amped]

Just now, bncho said:

12z GFS congrats Richmond!

Takes almost 24 hours to get from Raleigh to DC

[JakkelWx]

CCB! hr 126

[Weather Will]

4pm Sunday

[Bob Chill]

Can't speak for everyone but I'd marry the gfs and also be good if she cheated on me 75mi NW. 

[IUsedToHateCold]

That's almost 4 feet of snow on the eastern shore with 50-65 mile per hour winds. Absolutely catastrophic. 

[MN Transplant]

3” QPF all snow around Salisbury.  Fantastic.

[clskinsfan]

Tuck it another 50 miles and its a DC HECS. 

[stormy]

3 hours ago, stormy said:

Its not over.      There are 12 more more model runs between now and Friday.

I can guarantee that significant changes await.  They may be east and they may be west, or northwest. 

3 hrs. later,  I'd say that a very significant change occurred with the 12z  GFS

[TowsonWeather]

Poor Randy stuck on the metro. 
 

How do we get him back on there for the Euro?

[IronTy]

Monster SoMD blizzard on the GFS.  I hope it can finally be right.  

[Chris78]

Just now, osfan24 said:

Right. I put as much stock in the GFS as I do the NAM, maybe even less, these days. Part of me wonders if it’s just chasing the Euro’s tail and is just a full 24 hours or so behind it. I guess we will find out in 90 minutes or so.

FWIW, that Google AI product at 6z was a coastal scraper.

Yeap. Mentally it's a JV model now for me.

[Shad]

40 inches for MBY and 60mph winds    hmmmmm  ok

[bncho]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Tuck it another 50 miles and its a DC HECS. 

That's actually super easy to do with 108+ hours out.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Just now, TowsonWeather said:

Poor Randy stuck on the metro. 
 

How do we get him back on there for the Euro?

Are we sure we want him back? Keep him on the metro if CMC/UKIE improve, IMO. 

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, Alfoman said:

Lord Almighty 

If euro and Euro AI shows this. This board will  crash lol

[clskinsfan]

Would love to be in Cambridge this weekend. That looks like the spot to me. 

[Conway7305]

lol, 30 “ for Short Pump.   

It’s Euro vs GFS

[Nomz]

son

[Ephesians2]

One glimmer of hope might be provided by the fact that most of the models have a strong negative NAO and a west-based block for this period. The beach blizzards of 2018 and 2022 were both pacific driven cold patterns with no blocking. Perhaps a block will help capture the shortwave and make it slow down and amplify more instead of being more progressive and sliding offshore. Or maybe it'll suppress it more. I don't know lol

[AlexD1990]

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

The wind is something else as well

 

5 minutes ago, Alfoman said:

Lord Almighty (not done yet either)

 

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

1pm

 

2 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

That's almost 4 feet of snow on the eastern shore with 50-65 mile per hour winds. Absolutely catastrophic. 

verbatim this would be beyond crippling for almost the whole Delmarva as well as SoMD. jesus.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

This is what we’re saying, 100+ hours, complicated stuff. Changes will happen.  Would not take this gfs forecast literally or even seriously yet but this is what can happen, powder keg situation with the arctic air.  Let’s keep trending. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

son

Closer

[IronTy]

Just now, Conway7305 said:

lol, 30 “ for Short Pump.   

It’s Euro vs GFS

I feel like it's statistically unlikely that the GFS can just be wrong every single time this winter.  Eventually it has to luck its way into a correct solution.  Hopefully this is it.  

[snowfan]

Holy fook! I'll see you all at Dewey Beer Co. On Saturday.

[bncho]

Who put down 50" for SBY in the snowfall competition?

[EHoffman]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

I feel like it's statistically unlikely that the GFS can just be wrong every single time this winter.  Eventually it has to luck its way into a correct solution.  Hopefully this is it.  

Ok but it just laid 4 feet in salisbury so it's pretty unlikely this will be the correct solution.

[SnowenOutThere]

BTW the DGZ is amazing on the GFS, unlike the past storm this would be a legit several thousand thick feet DGZ