January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, kind of like how much of CT whines about 2015...

Lol true. Errybody be whining…

[Hoth]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I was in Maine sledding during that March one(13th) and my mother called me cuz I had a buddy that was supposed to plow the driveway, and she called me and said she told him not to come, cuz we only got like 2-3” lol. What a flop. Out east crushed it. Ray with a 30 plus I think.  
 

And Hoth is right about that later one…that flopped too…went south lol. 

The one silver lining in that stretch was the wet snowstorm that featured some epic thunder snow.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Hoth said:

The one silver lining in that stretch was the wet snowstorm that featured some epic thunder snow.

That was the second of the 4…which did pretty nicely here too. The first one was the windswept all rain storm here. The third and fourth flopped. So we got 1 out of 4 lol. 

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah John, happy holidays new year all that…

So velocity can be expressed a couple different ways in the atmosphere. When you have a lot of isohypses - I know you this… - nearby one another than the balanced geostrophic wind velocity is going to be fast. When the gaps between them have larger spacing than the wind slows down. Short waves need to be embedded in a balance geostrophic wind field that does not offset the wind max of the short wave passing through.

The other way velocity is expressed is the actual translation speed of the short waves through the medium … the compressed field contributes to that.  This run looks like it has both, but in particular, seeing short waves passing over South Dakota and then leaving the East Coast just 18 hours is going to create some mechanical challenges to allowing anything to amplify… The speed of the flow is keeping the long wave open (lessening the meridian character) so that can’t happen. 

Thanks Tip... I fully understand the spacing issue with respect to the isohypses controlling the overall speed; the tighter the speed gradient (so to speak) the faster the flow; also I get the suppression process.  What I was inquiring about is do you just scan the isohypses spacing, or do you look for a specific gradient value, if you get my drift?  Have you come across any papers discussing the increasing speed / shear issue; compared to years or decades ago?

[Snowcrazed71]

4 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

On the flip side of that, We got a foot plus with no WSWarning…lol. Complete debacle on both ends of the spectrum with that one. 

Yes I remember that storm. And it was crazy how the amounts went through this stripe of the state. I remember I had just about 15" here ... Crazy

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, kind of like how much of CT whines about 2015...

I was in DC so I don’t know the CT experience. We had all time collapses three weekends in a row in DC but the season turned around somewhat starting with an epic Arctic front 2/14/15. I’d rather someone see a historic stretch than no one. 

[wxsniss]

3 hours ago, kdxken said:

We will hold you to it. How about Boston? Sitting at 4 inches. Can we make a run at an all-time ratter. Pretty hard to beat 9.8 In 2023.

 

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

They weren’t that bad in 2023.  Futility is 1936-37 at 9” even.  2011-12 9.3”.  
 

This is from memory can’t find the old link.

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

Specifically for KBOS (noting the unrepresentative wastewater facility caveats):

1936-37 9.0"

2011-12 9.3"

2023-24 9.8"

2025-26 5.0" to date

Mean 42.2"

[dendrite]

1.4”/0.10” final

Had an epic 0.1”/0.01” the other day too

[weathafella]

35 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

 

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

Specifically for KBOS (noting the unrepresentative wastewater facility caveats):

1936-37 9.0"

2011-12 9.3"

2023-24 9.8"

2025-26 5.0" to date

Mean 42.2"

We’ve lived through some stinkers this century!

[dryslot]

1.8" final here, On to tonight's system.

[UnitedWx]

GFS is looking a little colder again for the weekend, and for tonight in NNE. Still has activity in the longer range... stay tuned 

[mahk_webstah]

The colder trend for the weekend has not made it into my forecast 

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

The colder trend for the weekend has not made it into my forecast 

From my barely trained eye it seems at least the GFS is yo-yoing on that for the weekend,  for your area 

[moneypitmike]

22 minutes ago, dryslot said:

1.8" final here, On to tonight's system.

Looks like most of the qpf will be in the form of snow.......NCP when it lightens up tomorrow.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Looks like most of the qpf will be in the form of snow.......NCP when it lightens up tomorrow.

06z GFS, 3.4", 06z 3k Nam is around 4.9", 06z HRRR which has been awful was 6.4".........

[moneypitmike]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

06z GFS, 3.4", 06z 3k Nam is around 4.9", 06z HRRR which has been awful was 6.4".........

I'm heading back up today----I've been away for over a week.  No doubt there's a few inches from a few events waiting to be cleared.

[mahk_webstah]

30 minutes ago, dryslot said:

06z GFS, 3.4", 06z 3k Nam is around 4.9", 06z HRRR which has been awful was 6.4".........

In the end 2-3 for me and 3-5 for you seems right.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

In the end 2-3 for me and 3-5 for you seems right.

I had 3-5" to include both events, Should end up on that high end as 3" tonight looks doable.

[moneypitmike]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I had 3-5" to include both events, Should end up on that high end as 3" tonight looks doable.

deep deep winter

[NoCORH4L]

North of the lakes region, it looks like they'll actually add to their pack, even through the weekend.

[jbenedet]

On 1/2/2026 at 10:02 AM, jbenedet said:

It’s not good— period —that the first pattern shake up of met winter is to land on hostile warmth for our region. If we didn’t land here at all it would portend better snow odds. Now we arrived here and need to hope for another shakeup. It’s just a game of odds…The long wave features are landing unfavorably. It also looks increasingly likely that it will stick beyond mid month. That said, the hostile period beginning around the 6th also is very unlikely to stick indefinitely. What’s most likely to me is we will settle in a gradient pattern. This has performed well in recent years from a line from just north of PWM, through DAW to N ORH. And extremely well in the far interior of NNE. Points south/east of there have been approx 50% of normal. That’s basically my expectation starting after the 15th. If this doesn’t work well for your lat/long or expectations, hope for another reshuffling in February. Still plenty of time for more shakeups….

 

@George001 

regarding your question on the 2nd half of January - this is still my position. 

 

[SJonesWX]

picked up 1.5" last night, just short of 20" on the season. as @HIPPYVALLEY said last night, it's been wintery, just not memorable. but 6 winter events since 12/23 is pretty good, just not a ton of depth to show for it

 

[jbenedet]

December to current has shown me clearly what winter is like in Bangor Maine…

Needless to say I get why the RE market is soooo much cheaper there…

[moneypitmike]

I still need to determine what we got at Pit2 overnight, but there's a good chance I'll break the 30" barrier tonight.

[jbenedet]

Drawing up this winter pattern is just about the worst vs what I like. Honestly I couldn’t take much of this. I can’t recommend anyone to live around here while it sucks this bad. Persistent sub freezing temps that won’t rid the black ice and nuisance but inconvenient snows —it’s for snowboarding, snow mobiling and pond hockey. That’s about it.
 

Big storms but N to AN and frequent melts is what I like. I’m happy for a pattern shift bc this couldn’t get worse from my perspective. Especially with the holidays behind…

[moneypitmike]

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Drawing up this winter pattern is just about the worst vs what I like. Honestly I couldn’t take much of this. I can’t recommend anyone to live around here while it sucks this bad. Persistent sub freezing temps that won’t rid the black ice and nuisance but inconvenient snows —it’s for snowboarding, snow mobiling and pond hockey. That’s about it.
 

Big storms but N to AN and frequent melts is what I like. I’m happy for a pattern shift bc this couldn’t get worse from my perspective. Especially with the holidays behind…

Do your penance.

[dryslot]

17 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I still need to determine what we got at Pit2 overnight, but there's a good chance I'll break the 30" barrier tonight.

31.92" here on the season, Should get close to 34" or so after tonight.

[Lava Rock]

17 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Drawing up this winter pattern is just about the worst vs what I like. Honestly I couldn’t take much of this. I can’t recommend anyone to live around here while it sucks this bad. Persistent sub freezing temps that won’t rid the black ice and nuisance but inconvenient snows —it’s for snowboarding, snow mobiling and pond hockey. That’s about it.
 

Big storms but N to AN and frequent melts is what I like. I’m happy for a pattern shift bc this couldn’t get worse from my perspective. Especially with the holidays behind…

you say that like it's a bad thing. Maybe NNE isn't for you anymore. 

[kdxken]

 

[jbenedet]

6 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

you say that like it's a bad thing. Maybe NNE isn't for you anymore. 

I basically have two jobs. I’m in my key earning years.

I love snowboarding, ice hockey and snow mobiling but I don’t live right in the mountains/country where it’s directly accessible. I’m here because I want those things *close*. Otherwise the weather that supports this stuff just makes life harder. Especially for my dog.