January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Typhoon Tip]

14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

As Tippy and Will alluded .. there may not be much of a mild up at all

Thaaaat's not what I said.   Not speaking for Will...  I precisely stated that cold --> warm up of unknown magnitude --> colder pattern works S-E via the natural -EPO evolution.  That's the ultra compressed version of all those tl;drs from yesterday from me. 

If that interim warm-up ends up being muted ... then 'not much at all' will be correct, but I didn't actually assert that's what's going to happen. It's still possible that we spend a couple of days above normal, perhaps exotically so, if you believe some of these recent GFS/ens members.   

In fact, some indicators overnight attempted to go back to the more +PNA look as opposed to the -EPO.  Yesterday, all ens means moved en masse toward the -EPO.  The new EPS mean is splitting.      

The only thing we know of higher confidence ( still ) is the breakdown of the mid Pacific ridging/height anomaly, which has been transitively ...well, fucking up the works. It's been conducting the music into a cold melody over the continent over the last several weeks, but the rhythm of the wave spacing has been negatively interfering with storm system genesis. etc...  not going over that again. 

Seeing that breakdown will be a good thing ... in theory. I mean, if we're juggling between -EPO (standard variant) vs +PNA from these ens visions, neither is climo "bad" for winter event enthusiasts.  So we got good problems in that sense. But, we have to get on the other side of ~ the 5th-7th, first.   By the 8th, the Pacific mode change has completed and the ens systems will prooobably have a better handle on what's happening on the other side of the pattern change door by then. 

Speculation:  It still looks cold above STL-DCA latitudes between the 10th and 20th.  If the +PNA ends up more reality than the big -EPO, we may conjure an event entering said PNA phase. If it's the EPO version, we may go (unknown) warm first, than eventually/have to wait that out.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, I guess after the 12th ...but the timing of all this isn't set either. it's just where the indicators look now...  again again again, we need to get on the other side of the Pac change window

[ORH_wxman]

I’d expect anything post-1/8 to be pretty poorly modeled right now with the big PAC changes going on. Our biggest chance at a monster torch day or two would be just beyond that…maybe 1/10ish if we warm sector cleanly with no precip like a few OP runs showed. But we’ve also seen some CAD looks around then too. So we wait. Heights will be way above normal but we don’t know on sfc temps yet. 

[mahk_webstah]

27 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

...as things stand right now at least the next 7-9  days are likely to not have any significant winter weather . At that point it will be approaching the middle part of January...

thats a bold guess

[Krs4Lfe]

27 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

...as things stand right now at least the next 7-9  days are likely to not have any significant winter weather . At that point it will be approaching the middle part of January...

And the can gets kicked once more. One more pattern delay after that and we’ll be looking at end of January 

[kdxken]

The 7th through the 17th. Not a cold look. 17th is 1st . Too lazy to change it.

 

[kdxken]

Wondering how the glass overflowing wolf will try to spin this one. 

 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Wondering how the glass overflowing wolf will try to spin this one. 

 

This is legit unlike the other ones.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

12 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Wondering how the glass overflowing wolf will try to spin this one. 

 

“We just don’t know”

[MJO812]

[qg_omega]

Happy 2026, looks like winter is done for the foreseeable future.  It was a great December at least

[Damage In Tolland]

46 minutes ago, kdxken said:

The 7th through the 17th. Not a cold look. 17th is 1st . Too lazy to change it.

 

Don’t you read anything the Mets say on here . You can’t just rip and read and assume warmth 

[Damage In Tolland]

38 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is legit unlike the other ones.

It’s not 

[tamarack]

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Winter 2013-14 was excellent overall, but January was major frustration.  It was significantly BN for temp, AN for precip, and the 2nd least snowy of 130 Januarys at the nearby Farmington co-op.  That's a near-impossible trifecta.

[jbenedet]

The -PNA is fading but so is the -NAO…Not seeing anyone pointing out the latter…

I don’t know why these phases have been in sych in recent years but it continues…

As for the CPC forecast beyond day 10, I think the +AN risk is greatest along the east coast losing the -NAO, and with the west coast ridge axis being west of Washington state…

It’s a long wave pattern where upstate  NY into northern VT can do very well, snowfall wise. The whites of NH into northern Maine as well…latitudinal Gradient vibes returning to New England. This means a poor pattern for sig snowfall chances in the major metros from Philly to Portland.

[The 4 Seasons]

21 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Winter 2013-14 was excellent overall, but January was major frustration.  It was significantly BN for temp, AN for precip, and the 2nd least snowy of 130 Januarys at the nearby Farmington co-op.  That's a near-impossible trifecta.

although, Jan 2014 was fantastic for SNE

[dendrite]

Def looks warm for a good 5-7 days starting around the 7th. The waters get a little muddy after that.

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Def looks warm for a good 5-7 days starting around the 7th. The waters get a little muddy after that.

Define warm

. I don’t think you can definitively say a week of warmth. Warmth has lost every time since Sept 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Define warm

. I don’t think you can definitively say a week of warmth. Warmth has lost every time since Sept 

Even if we have highs of something like low 40s over interior, that is pretty solidly above climo this time of year. We often measure our torches in how much the peak warmth is, but even if we don’t have any days of 50+, it will still be solidly AN for several days. 
 

If that system next weekend (around 1/10-1/11) ends up more CADish, then we could mute the warm departures somewhat but they will still be notable. If we warm sector in that system, we’ll make a run at 55+ easily. 

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, Krs4Lfe said:

And the can gets kicked once more. One more pattern delay after that and we’ll be looking at end of January 

Winter is quickly moving along, almost the halfway point!  Most of us are very very happy

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Define warm

. I don’t think you can definitively say a week of warmth. Warmth has lost every time since Sept 

Eventually that’ll lose out. Perpetual warmth or cold in our region is very hard to accomplish. At least it’s not days and days of 50+ and it is on the front end of a cold reload. 

[bristolri_wx]

I believe the upcoming pattern could be characterized as a “January Thaw”.

Not necessarily a bad sign for the rest of winter if we have one. 

The disappointment is amplified by the fact that we haven’t cashed din as much as we would like with the colder pattern in place, but it’s not unusual for a relaxation in the pattern to move in during January.
 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Even if we have highs of something like low 40s over interior, that is pretty solidly above climo this time of year. We often measure our torches in how much the peak warmth is, but even if we don’t have any days of 50+, it will still be solidly AN for several days. 
 

If that system next weekend (around 1/10-1/11) ends up more CADish, then we could mute the warm departures somewhat but they will still be notable. If we warm sector in that system, we’ll make a run at 55+ easily. 

It’s just strange to see Dendy on board Popes torch train of 50’s He usually sides to the the cooler side . The way this fall and winter have gone when guidance tries to go hot .. would be kind of foolish to think this won’t mute somewhat 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s just strange to see Dendy on board Popes torch train of 50’s He usually sides to the the cooler side . The way this fall and winter have gone when guidance tries to go hot .. would be kind of foolish to think this won’t mute somewhat 

There’s not lot of evidence we’re going to stay near normal at least for the 1/7-1/11 period. People can quibble on the magnitude of the warmth but it’s going to be AN.
 

After that is a little dicier. There’s a big shift going on in the PAC. Looks like PV tries to get reestablished near Hudson Bay which would be a return to a colder pattern. The question is how quickly that happens. Could be in place by 1/12-13 or it could wait a week. Or something different could pop up on guidance. Seems to be pretty good consensus right now though on ensemble guidance.