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26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.


Go Kart Mozart
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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Where the heck is that 6-10" swath going through MA coming from?   I don't see anything suggesting that.

 

If it happens, I will buy you a beverage or app of your choice at the next GTG

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32 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Where the heck is that 6-10" swath going through MA coming from?   I don't see anything suggesting that.

 

If it happens, I will buy you a beverage or app of your choice at the next GTG

Looks like less confluence than previously expected and maybe not all models are catching on fully to it in his estimation.

If that means frontogenesis and the best lift happen further N/E, that can bring us what Ray is thinking.

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14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Where the heck is that 6-10" swath going through MA coming from?   I don't see anything suggesting that.

 

If it happens, I will buy you a beverage or app of your choice at the next GTG

H7 warm front stagnates out there as it runs into resistance from the confluence and the system decays.

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Some strong clipper memories

 Usually go from flurries to full on dendrites. Piles up quickly. Rates are crazy in max zones. Max bands don't last long but can produce 4 to 6 in 2 hrs. As quick as it came it winds down to 1/2 per hour then it gets very cold and windy. Blowing and drifting is an issue. Final call for CT.  BDR 8, HVN 6, BDL 8, DXR 9, IJD 6, ME 5, KEV 7, Wolfie 8, 4 Seasons 9 , Big Jay 8, Lava Lake 4, FXWX 10

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3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

That is correct. When you see that signature that indicates strong upward vertical motion which will transport moisture into the DGZ and that's when you're most likely to get dendrites which accumulate efficiently. There are some other factors which need to be considered as well though. 

But here is an example from coolwx.com of the 6z NAM for BDL. This site is pretty cool if you don't have bufkit  but you can see the maximum omega bisecting the DGZ

image.thumb.png.e473c5f359fcb37d30f2f569a9aa82d0.png

Say you wanted to look for it on forecast soundings. What you would do is fine the DGZ (which is usually a colored as a yellow area on the temperature line) then on the left look at the omega (horizontal purple lines which indicate upward motion). The longer the lines, the stronger the lift and you want longer lines to match up to where the DGZ is.

image.png.f3f3ce55e423f76542cace26de453be5.png

Great, thanks!

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