White Christmas Miracle? December 23-24th

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

That’s not too shabby for CT…1-3” would be cool. Especially the timing of it being very close to Xmas. 

It's something. And maybe there'll be some left on the ground for Christmas Eve. It's better than having no chance. Either way, still looking forward to Christmas Eve and Christmas day. Leaving Christmas night for Canada so we should definitely have some good snow up there near Quebec City

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You don’t want to talk about the weather. You want to talk about snow and positive outcomes. That’s not the weather we’re experiencing, or have experienced the last half decade. I have no time for the all snow all the time crew, who ignore mountains of evidence of a bad snow regime pinning hopes to a needle in the haystack solution.

Period.

Now see, that ain’t true at all. That’s where you are misled.  If it sucks I have no issue saying so. But when things are trending or morphing(whatever word we want to use), we need to see things through until we get closer in, and see if we are indeed in the game, or not.  
 

And yes, the last 4 years especially, have been bad for us snow peeps…no argument there at all.  But if I/we can pick up a couple inches on the 23rd…I’m pleased about that. And that’s not being positive all the time…that’s being level headed. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

ICON on the juicier side of 12z guidance
I agree with Wiz that there be decent fronto pushing through the area.

[Baroclinic Zone]

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Nice.  It’s the Icon, but it’s nice. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

If there is an IVT, coastal Maine might clean up.

[SouthCoastMA]

sucker hole here, but likely too warm anyways 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Didn’t have time to dig deep in to the whole NE. Going with 1-3” for everyone for now, except less along immediate shore with warmer boundary layer.  Will tweak tomorrow. 

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Now see, that ain’t true at all. That’s where you are misled.  If it sucks I have no issue saying so. But when things are trending or morphing(whatever word we want to use), we need to see things through until we get closer in, and see if we are indeed in the game, or not.  
 

And yes, the last 4 years especially, have been bad for us snow peeps…no argument there at all.  But if I/we can pick up a couple inches on the 23rd…I’m pleased about that. And that’s not being positive all the time…that’s being level headed. 

Dear Wolfie,

on behalf of the entire sub-forum, please add tblizz to your ignore list. If you can’t bring yourself to do that, please skip past his posts. and if you can’t do that, for the love of god stop replying to his posts. 
love,

the rest of us.

[butterfish55]

Dear Wolfie,
on behalf of the entire sub-forum, please add tblizz to your ignore list. If you can’t bring yourself to do that, please skip past his posts. and if you can’t do that, for the love of god stop replying to his posts. 
love,
the rest of us.

This x1000

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

Dear Wolfie,

on behalf of the entire sub-forum, please add tblizz to your ignore list. If you can’t bring yourself to do that, please skip past his posts. and if you can’t do that, for the love of god stop replying to his posts. 
love,

the rest of us.

You got it. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

BOX map

 

[weathafella]

We take the euro-and OT the entire week.

[dryslot]

For up here, It looks like most of the snow fall is Christmas Eve morning.

[NorEastermass128]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

If there is an IVT, coastal Maine might clean up.

Lets sneak that down to Cape Ann

[ORH_wxman]

43 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Lets sneak that down to Cape Ann

Def could clip that area. That’s where most of the uncertainty is on this. We can quibble about 1.4” vs 3.5” over the interior but I don’t see any drastic changes. 

[DavisStraight]

50 minutes ago, dryslot said:

For up here, It looks like most of the snow fall is Christmas Eve morning.

Looks that way, let's hope for the Norlun again.

[dryslot]

17 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Looks that way, let's hope for the Norlun again.

GYX is not biting on that yet, These things are finicky.

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

GYX is not biting on that yet, These things are finicky.

Too soon and things might move around some more.  Seems like a general 2-4” up our way. 3 is a win.  The later part of the week is interesting right into next week

[dryslot]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Too soon and things might move around some more.  Seems like a general 2-4” up our way. 3 is a win.  The later part of the week is interesting right into next week

I've stuck with a 1-3" or 2-4" for now, But yeah, I think 3" is the number right now.

[Ginx snewx]

EPS getting juicy for us. We talked about this overrunning setup for 2 weeks. Its here and who scores is still up in the air. Good luck to all. 

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

EPS getting juicy for us. We talked about this overrunning setup for 2 weeks. Its here and who scores is still up in the air. Good luck to all. 

 

[dryslot]

Looks like GYX is now bumping totals up a bit.

[moneypitmike]

PWM is off to a nice start on Tuesday.

Tuesday

Snow likely, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

 

Tuesday Night

Snow. Low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

 

Wednesday

A 40 percent chance of snow showers before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 33.

[moneypitmike]

This may have already been clarified.......if not, GYX provides the methodology for the 'range map'.

[moneypitmike]

14 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

This may have already been clarified.......if not, GYX provides the methodology for the 'range map'.

Reading this more closely, I think how they wrote it incorrectly.......the the 25th percentile should say "higher number".  

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Reading this more closely,I think how they wrote it is inccorectly.......the the 25th percentile should say "higher number".  

They have it right. 25th percentile would mean a 75% chance of seeing more snow than that amount.

[moneypitmike]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

They have it right. 25th percentile would mean a 75% chance of seeing more snow than that amount.

Gotcha.  It's a bit confusing as that's opposite of how they  present their probability maps where the lower number is "90% chances of seeing that amount" and the higher number is "10% chances of seeing that amount"

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

18z NAM 

[WinterWolf]

Can we just go back to 1-3 and 2-5…ya, that’s understandable.  All this 75% of seeing more than this low number, or 25% of seeing more than this higher number..really?