The Return of the 12/5 Snowstorm

[psuhoffman]

[Terpeast]

Not only did gfs shift, it expanded its precip extent north. Lets keep this trend going. 

[H2O]

6 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I remember I did something like that on one of my first posts and I was severely admonished.  

I wish some people would post less. And by less I mean never. Yes, I fully realize some would want me to be a part of that. 
 

37.9/27.3 and waiting 

 

Maybe the models can figure out the confluence and vort by tomorrow so the brine trucks can get ready

[bncho]

posting the wrong snow map is probably the most heinous crime one can do in this forum 48 hours before an event lol. sorry. 18z GFS down below

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol. Usually keep a grapple on the front of my tractor but I switched it to the bucket today... to move gravel...but you never know lol. Could bomb off the coast and drop a foot. 

I'm sticking to gut call of 1-2" but would gladly accept the 18z gfs or 12z low res nam haha

Is it possible you moved into a better snow climo by going south? Lol

[wxdude64]

38 minutes ago, FBXwinterfan said:

I am. Should have introduced myself. My bad. Been watching for years and finally signed up. 

Welcome! You say you've been lurking, so you know what you're getting into lol. 

[bncho]

Just now, wxdude64 said:

Welcome! You say you've been lurking, so you know what you're getting into lol. 

he's experiencing firsthand what this forum is about 

[H2O]

1-2” would be nice. The cold temps might be a bonus simply cause that can help ratios. More from less. 
 

Instead of my usual -8:1 snow ratio I can get a solid 6.7:1 if temps are what the models show

 

yes im now bringing out ratios to assuage not being in the jack

[Solution Man]

11 minutes ago, H2O said:

1-2” would be nice. The cold temps might be a bonus simply cause that can help ratios. More from less. 
 

Instead of my usual -8:1 snow ratio I can get a solid 6.7:1 if temps are what the models show

 

yes im now bringing out ratios to assuage not being in the jack

15-1 for you, Merry Christmas 

[IronTy]

17 minutes ago, H2O said:

I wish some people would post less. And by less I mean never. Yes, I fully realize some would want me to be a part of that. 
 

37.9/27.3 and waiting 

 

Maybe the models can figure out the confluence and vort by tomorrow so the brine trucks can get ready

It's an internet forum after all, very few of these survive anymore so we should be happy for any traffic at this point.  Gotta put up with the occasional dumbass poster like myself to get the good stuff.  

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

It's an internet forum after all, very few of these survive anymore so we should be happy for any traffic at this point.  Gotta put up with the occasional dumbass poster like myself to get the good stuff.  

This place is infinitely better than any form of social media. I hope it never dies.  

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, FBXwinterfan said:

Richmond met is breaking my heart here in Spotsylvania. 

If the F.H. Furr CEO was a true weenie he'd revoke their sponsorship over that map.  

[SnowenOutThere]

38 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

You’re doing good, keep it up

I would encourage everyone to get into this side of reading storms as its way less frustrating than just tracking seemingly random movements on the surface as you can tell what a setups potential is more concretely. 

[SnowenOutThere]

22 minutes ago, bncho said:

posting the wrong snow map is probably the most heinous crime one can do in this forum 48 hours before an event lol. sorry. 18z GFS down below

Hey we all make mistakes. Besides, you're a way better poster than I was in my early years of high school (as some on this forum no doubt remember).

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I would encourage everyone to get into this side of reading storms as its way less frustrating than just tracking seemingly random movements on the surface as you can tell what a setups potential is more concretely. 

Crushing it

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

No it did not and I appreciated the response 

We did good last year and a lot of it was that we were expressing similar ideas but with different points of referencing. That caused confusion and some bad exchanges but that’s over now I feel 

[Bob Chill]

27 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Is it possible you moved into a better snow climo by going south? Lol

I got 11" last year and it was the best of the 3 since we bought property here. 2 previous were basically shutouts. Sounds awesome right? Lol

[87storms]

We’re in the psychobabbe portion of tracking.

Is it gonna snow or not?

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, stormy said:

I remember that Great Ash Wednesday storm.

Ocean City was wrecked 

[WEATHER53]

If we’ve got a 30.55 crusher tomorrow night at 8pm then we are in suppression trouble 

Otherwise let’s see how bad ass this cold boy really is 

[GATECH]

11 minutes ago, 87storms said:

We’re in the psychobabbe portion of tracking.

Is it gonna snow or not?

Yes! No, maybe, not!  Depends on the angle of the cold!  I just summed up the last day of this thread….your welcome.

[stormy]

26 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Ocean City was wrecked 

Yes, much of the east coast was wrecked.

[rjvanals]

18z Euro wasn’t ideal although qpf w such small amounts is basically noise 

[WxUSAF]

 

[NorthArlington101]

I’d love more but this is alright. Hopefully we’re finding the floor. 

[wxmeddler]

s/w over central high plains is notably more pronounced in past few runs of GFS helping our poor flattened out s/w get slightly more ageostrophic winds overhead us. 

Now, that says nothing about the metric ton of dry air between 925 and 850 left behind by the passing subsidence/high. You can have all the lift at 500 in the world and still not get precipitation at the surface if your spread at 925 is -5/-30.

[Eskimo Joe]

18z HRRR is good for I-66 to US 50 and points south.

[Ji]

I’d love more but this is alright. Hopefully we’re finding the floor. 

Looks awful compared to 00z and 6z

[nw baltimore wx]

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

Typical Bncho 

He’s young.

 

55 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Hey we all make mistakes. Besides, you're a way better poster than I was in my early years of high school (as some on this forum no doubt remember).

I’ve recently retired HS math teacher and maybe it’s time to take some met classes. I’m impressed with how much@SnowenOutThere has learned in his short time studying meteorology. Frankly, it’s inspiring.

[FBXwinterfan]

1 hour ago, wxdude64 said:

Welcome! You say you've been lurking, so you know what you're getting into lol. 

I do. Growing up in Richmond, VA I learned to manage snow expectations