Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Cary67]

13 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

EPS trying to give us a slightly different look in fantasy range, maybe a change of pace in a couple weeks?

Hopefully. This weekend is approximately duster event #9 for my area. At about 26-27" on the season. RFD lagging a bit at 23.9"

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

EPS trying to give us a slightly different look in fantasy range, maybe a change of pace in a couple weeks?

Its always interesting when several models/ensembles hint at roughly the same idea 2 weeks out, so its worth watching. But the key words...2 weeks out lol. In the mean time, just enjoying deep winter and hoping a clipper or two pops up.

[DocATL]

Major dice rolling on these clippers.

[Malacka11]

It's a struggle sometimes to ask questions genuinely stemming from curiosity for fear of seeming like a wishcaster. It's tough because (understandably) nobody posts a damn fucking thing until the elephant is basically addressing itself. Again, competely understandable, but this is the mfing Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion™ thread so let's chat:

What's up with about 150ish hours from now?  What dictates the degree of phasing between the various pieces that could be involved? Even if it phases into a 1-3 incher, what might control that? I truly want to stress that I'm just looking to understand large-scale, basic stuff here and not fishing for hope -- nor doomer shit.  Even if you aren't pro, what do you think?  If you are absolutely not paying attention because it's DOA, then why?  

[cyclone77]

12 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

It's a struggle sometimes to ask questions genuinely stemming from curiosity for fear of seeming like a wishcaster. It's tough because (understandably) nobody posts a damn fucking thing until the elephant is basically addressing itself. Again, competely understandable, but this is the mfing Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion™ thread so let's chat:

What's up with about 150ish hours from now?  What dictates the degree of phasing between the various pieces that could be involved? Even if it phases into a 1-3 incher, what might control that? I truly want to stress that I'm just looking to understand large-scale, basic stuff here and not fishing for hope -- nor doomer shit.  Even if you aren't pro, what do you think?  If you are absolutely not paying attention because it's DOA, then why?  

After Monday I stopped looking at models.  Got tired of seeing the same thing over and over.  I'll wait until someone starts a storm thread before I even bother checking into things.

[DocATL]

It's a struggle sometimes to ask questions genuinely stemming from curiosity for fear of seeming like a wishcaster. It's tough because (understandably) nobody posts a damn fucking thing until the elephant is basically addressing itself. Again, competely understandable, but this is the mfing Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion thread so let's chat:
What's up with about 150ish hours from now?  What dictates the degree of phasing between the various pieces that could be involved? Even if it phases into a 1-3 incher, what might control that? I truly want to stress that I'm just looking to understand large-scale, basic stuff here and not fishing for hope -- nor doomer shit.  Even if you aren't pro, what do you think?  If you are absolutely not paying attention because it's DOA, then why?  

I say just ask the questions…who cares if you seem like a wishcaster? There’s no hierarchy here but certainly there’s some really smart people here to learn from. There’s nothing to learn from me unfortunately - unless it’s related to medicine.

I’ve wondered the same and from what I’ve gathered it’s incredibly tenuous because of the number of variables involved and the models being subject to timing and positional errors. You need the high latitude blocking, proper jet stream configuration, higher amplitude shortwaves, and other “stuff” beyond my scope. But the stars have to align a bit.


.

[TheClimateChanger]

What an incredible winter so far. It may be a LONG time before we see another winter off to such a fast start. I was looking at some numbers... Columbus and Dayton, Ohio have both registered more snow through today's date than every other winter since 1996, except for 2014. And at Dayton, only two winters since 1978 have seen more snowfall through today's date (1996 & 2014)!

Not as impressive, but still noteworthy, Cleveland and Detroit have recorded more snowfall through today's date than every winter since 2006, with the exception of 2009 & 2014.

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

It's a struggle sometimes to ask questions genuinely stemming from curiosity for fear of seeming like a wishcaster. It's tough because (understandably) nobody posts a damn fucking thing until the elephant is basically addressing itself. Again, competely understandable, but this is the mfing Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion™ thread so let's chat:

What's up with about 150ish hours from now?  What dictates the degree of phasing between the various pieces that could be involved? Even if it phases into a 1-3 incher, what might control that? I truly want to stress that I'm just looking to understand large-scale, basic stuff here and not fishing for hope -- nor doomer shit.  Even if you aren't pro, what do you think?  If you are absolutely not paying attention because it's DOA, then why?  

Honestly. I know my areas climo/tendencies. I look at all the models and ensembles and look for trends....ESPECIALLY on ensembles. I look for what things are showing up consistently in some form or another vs things that are there one run and gone the next. Also I never ever take any model verbatim. Thats how I model watch because I dont understand a lot of the more technical stuff either. 

[Malacka11]

8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Honestly. I know my areas climo/tendencies. I look at all the models and ensembles and look for trends....ESPECIALLY on ensembles. I look for what things are showing up consistently in some form or another vs things that are there one run and gone the next. Also I never ever take any model verbatim. Thats how I model watch because I dont understand a lot of the more technical stuff either. 

I guess that's exactly what I do, just try and analyze differences run to run. Where I guess I break down is understanding why models show what they do and recognizing, for example, synoptic setups conducive to constructive phasing in a general sense. 

In this case, I can look at 500mb geo height maps all day and see where different pieces of energy are coming from. Looks like shit from the Pacific (?) and some crap riding down the rockies (?) could conceptually come together, but the setup is otherwise seemingly too progressive (?)

Now, there's still a moderate HP center out in front of this, but obviously its impact is much less than in our last system where iirc heights kept building slightly over canada with every run instead of trending the opposite way (?) Obviously this is a major oversimplification but that's the point I suppose - I wish I knew how 

 

Again, I am not trying to equate this system with the last let alone say I have any hopes for it. It's just the next upcoming case study.

[TheClimateChanger]

9 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

What an incredible winter so far. It may be a LONG time before we see another winter off to such a fast start. I was looking at some numbers... Columbus and Dayton, Ohio have both registered more snow through today's date than every other winter since 1996, except for 2014. And at Dayton, only two winters since 1978 have seen more snowfall through today's date (1996 & 2014)!

Not as impressive, but still noteworthy, Cleveland and Detroit have recorded more snowfall through today's date than every winter since 2006, with the exception of 2009 & 2014.

Looks like Louisville is leading the charge, with the most snow to date since 1994 - which is the only winter with more since 1978.