December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Baroclinic Zone]

12Z GEFS has the signal as well. Nice to see heights building out west which is why we are seeing this storminess popping up around that timeframe 12th/13th.

[rimetree]

New roof install this coming week. Delaying a significant event to next weekend is fine with me.

[DavisStraight]

Steady snow now, probably won't last long.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs went from flaccid to powder keg look on one run. Lol

The whole run looks feasible 

 

[Fozz]

3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Just like everything in meteorology, it seems that there’s always one thing that can trump something else, albeit only in very rare cases, and that seems to be happening with that clipper.  
 

I mentioned this a week or two ago, the NAO has not helped us much in the last few years. It either has suppressed systems(yesterdays Virginia snow), and now it’s letting a clipper cut to Ottawa…we can’t seem to win with these NAO blocks. 

I’m curious about why that is? Is there some other teleconnection that is overpowering the NAO to allow these systems to cut?

At some point I hope ORH can score better than 00s NYC.

[DavisStraight]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The whole run looks feasible 

 

There's the grinch we all know and love.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs went from flaccid to powder keg look on one run. Lol

add the GGEM's 12z improvement..

what leaps out is the extreme general thickness ( hydrostatic hgts) gradient along which this paltry ( for now...) looking low is riding along.  The flow is having trouble "kinking" in time... ad nauseam, because of the faster than normal basal velocity.  But this elucidates the high potential should that correct just pubes more so... you'd wind up a rapid deepener, albeit progressive - but who's judging when begging.  Just gotta bend the flow in time and   BOOM