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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread


Torch Tiger
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16 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

trust me when I say that you didn't miss much. about 5 mins of snow, nothing crazy, with 0.000000000000 accumulating

Yep.

10 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Extreme snow squall in progress.  Captured this image from my neighbor's webcam.  Right now vis is 1/16th of a mile.  When I can't see the other side of my pasture we know that heavy rates are happening.

 

Ladd Farm_0_live_1764877069015.jpg

Moore, OK called and want their storm back

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Had a brief dusting with the first round of snow showers about 45 minutes ago. Enough to log a "trace" for the day but not measurable. But it did lower the temp from 40F to 31F very quickly. Sun is back out now but perhaps a more legitimate squall appears to be approaching from the west.

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8 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

shield your eyes, it's hideous

https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/13/12/246

This is all likely true in this paper ... but it certainly isn't true this year  - for now..

I mean, a persistent snow pack, squalls in the air ... and possible refit event 108 or so hours out in models that have others through the 20th ... to mention, a -20 something anomaly plume here on the doorstep, these are all hallmarks of an above normal winter expression.

As an aside, I'm reminded ... I thought back in early September this has a shot at a front loaded winter.   Not sure this quite yet qualifies... but at the time I said either that, or a quasi one anyway. 

I just get the feel that it's done in January this year, though.   Flower February?  I'm sure I just triggered a salvo of responses, either why that's not true posts, are a bunch of truly intellectually inspiring shit emojis ...  but we'll let all that and see what happens in due time.

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is all likely true in this paper ... but it certainly isn't true this year  - for now..

I mean, a persistent snow pack, squalls in the air ... and possible refit event 108 or so hours out with -20 anomaly plume in between are all hallmarks of an above normal winter expression.

As an aside, I'm reminded ... I thought back in early September this has a shot at a front loaded winter.   Not sure this quite yet qualifies... but at the time I said either that, or a quasi one anyway. 

I just get the feel that it's done in January this year.   Flower February

Yeah I agree the early part of this winter likely won't be representative of the trends documented. 

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15 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

shield your eyes, it's hideous

https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/13/12/246

Tip is right that this year probably isn’t representative of this, and I know how he feels about it, so what I’m about to say is in general and not directed towards him at all.

I think on this topic people have insane recency bias. Like, it’s been cold for the last 12 hours, or Mansfield had a good snow week last week, so that somehow negates the years and years of building evidence to the contrary.

its important to look big picture 

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34 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Tip is right that this year probably isn’t representative of this, and I know how he feels about it, so what I’m about to say is in general and not directed towards him at all.

I think on this topic people have insane recency bias. Like, it’s been cold for the last 12 hours, or Mansfield had a good snow week last week, so that somehow negates the years and years of building evidence to the contrary.

its important to look big picture 

On that point, the last 5 years have been so bad that we might actually do well relative to that span over the next 5, despite the overall decline over the long term. We shall see

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