Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph Jamaica landfall

[dan11295]

Based on Pilon, Cuba radar eyewall probably coming ashore in next 45-60 minutes

[Scott747]

Not going to lie. In all these years I've never been worried about Josh. A few when he has relocated to at the last minute to some spots that weren't previously scouted.

This one I'm on edge.

Little nervous about the elevation....

[SchaumburgStormer]

Little leftward jog right at landfall. 

[Wannabehippie]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I hope someone (Josh) can get some photos in that eye. I can’t even imagine what it must be like going from the most violent weather on Earth to sunny calm then back to Armageddon. 

I am sure he will take video, pictures while in the eye, might be a bit before he can upload any photos/pictures.

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Was just thinking he might be in that eye for a bit, should be close to fully clear in it

He keeps repositioning as the storm gets closer as long as he can before he hunkers down.

[pazzo83]

Just now, Scott747 said:

Not going to lie. In all these years I've never been worried about Josh. A few when he has relocated to at the last minute to some spots that weren't previously scouted.

This one I'm on edge.

Little nervous about the elevation....

yep - same.  I was pretty worried about him with Dorian but he was able to get better shelter during the eye.  Not so sure this time.

[HKY_WX]

Just now, pazzo83 said:

yep - same.  I was pretty worried about him with Dorian but he was able to get better shelter during the eye.  Not so sure this time.

I think I am less worried this go around given the elevation. he can likely avoid the surge pretty easily down there. As long as he's in a reinforced concrete building he should be fine.

[Nibor]

3 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

I can't convince myself to sign up for TikTok, even to watch streams of the strongest Hurricane landfall in history.

One of us

[Akeem the African Dream]

it really doesn’t look that bad on the feed from Reuters 

 

[USCG RS]

18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The south eyewall

 

Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 14:06Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Name: Melissa
Storm Number: 13 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 23
Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 14Z on the 28th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 17.6N 78.0W
Location: 84 statute miles (134 km) to the WSW (250°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
Marsden Square: 044 ( About )
 

Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level	Geo. Height	Air Temp.	Dew Point	Wind Direction	Wind Speed
1000mb	This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
927mb (27.38 inHg)	Surface (Sea Level)	24.4°C (75.9°F)	24.4°C (76°F)	185° (from the S)	172 knots (198 mph)
925mb	20m (66 ft)	24.2°C (75.6°F)	24.2°C (76°F)	185° (from the S)	174 knots (200 mph)
850mb	755m (2,477 ft)	20.0°C (68.0°F)	20.0°C (68°F)	240° (from the WSW)	187 knots (215 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 13:50Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 180° (S) from the eye center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 17.58N 78.03W
- Time: 13:50:52Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 17.66N 77.91W
- Time: 13:54:00Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 210° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 192 knots (221 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 240° (from the WSW)
- Wind Speed: 147 knots (169 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 713mb to 926mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 157 gpm - 7 gpm (515 geo. feet - 23 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 188 knots (216 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 40001
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level	Air Temperature	Dew Point
927mb (Surface)	24.4°C (75.9°F)	24.4°C (76°F)
924mb	24.2°C (75.6°F)	About 15°C (59°F)
887mb	21.4°C (70.5°F)	21.4°C (71°F)
850mb	20.0°C (68.0°F)	20.0°C (68°F)
825mb	21.2°C (70.2°F)	21.2°C (70°F)
801mb	21.4°C (70.5°F)	21.4°C (71°F)
709mb	15.8°C (60.4°F)	15.8°C (60°F)

 

Significant Wind Levels
Level	Wind Direction	Wind Speed
927mb (Surface)	185° (from the S)	172 knots (198 mph)
924mb	190° (from the S)	171 knots (197 mph)
922mb	185° (from the S)	179 knots (206 mph)
921mb	185° (from the S)	185 knots (213 mph)
919mb	190° (from the S)	187 knots (215 mph)
918mb	190° (from the S)	195 knots (224 mph)
917mb	190° (from the S)	189 knots (217 mph)
916mb	195° (from the SSW)	203 knots (234 mph)
915mb	195° (from the SSW)	189 knots (217 mph)
914mb	195° (from the SSW)	189 knots (217 mph)
912mb	205° (from the SSW)	206 knots (237 mph)
911mb	205° (from the SSW)	215 knots (247 mph)
907mb	205° (from the SSW)	214 knots (246 mph)
906mb	205° (from the SSW)	219 knots (252 mph)
901mb	215° (from the SW)	207 knots (238 mph)
890mb	215° (from the SW)	201 knots (231 mph)
884mb	220° (from the SW)	184 knots (212 mph)
879mb	220° (from the SW)	176 knots (203 mph)
867mb	225° (from the SW)	182 knots (209 mph)
864mb	225° (from the SW)	190 knots (219 mph)
862mb	225° (from the SW)	192 knots (221 mph)
860mb	230° (from the SW)	211 knots (243 mph)
858mb	230° (from the SW)	198 knots (228 mph)
856mb	230° (from the SW)	196 knots (226 mph)
853mb	235° (from the SW)	185 knots (213 mph)
850mb	240° (from the WSW)	187 knots (215 mph)
846mb	245° (from the WSW)	197 knots (227 mph)
831mb	265° (from the W)	171 knots (197 mph)
830mb	255° (from the WSW)	189 knots (217 mph)
827mb	260° (from the W)	181 knots (208 mph)
826mb	265° (from the W)	166 knots (191 mph)
825mb	265° (from the W)	170 knots (196 mph)
820mb	270° (from the W)	141 knots (162 mph)
808mb	265° (from the W)	160 knots (184 mph)
801mb	260° (from the W)	144 knots (166 mph)
789mb	260° (from the W)	163 knots (188 mph)
773mb	265° (from the W)	115 knots (132 mph)
750mb	270° (from the W)	140 knots (161 mph)
741mb	255° (from the WSW)	110 knots (127 mph)
730mb	250° (from the WSW)	106 knots (122 mph)
713mb	255° (from the WSW)	133 knots (153 mph)

200 mph... SUSTAINED

That is the classification for an EF5 tornado. 200+. That's a 15+ mile wide EF5 Tornado. 

[pazzo83]

Just now, USCG RS said:

200 mph... SUSTAINED

That is the classification for an EF5 tornado. 200+. That's a 15+ mile wide EF5 Tornado. 

i think that's a really good way to communicate these - basically a super-massive F5 tornado is headed your way!

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

I think I am less worried this go around given the elevation. he can likely avoid the surge pretty easily down there. As long as he's in a reinforced concrete building he should be fine.

Yeah. He's literally the best at this. As long as you can avoid surge and flash flooding, you can get through it in a sturdy building. I'm worried about all the people not in good shelter. 

[LovingGulfLows]

Intense based on this webcam from Treasure beach.

 

 

[WolfStock1]

Official "landfall" is when *center* of the eye hits right?   Seems like this eye wall  - the strongest winds - is already making landfall right now, right?  (based on the satellite loops)

[MANDA]

Full on stadium effect at landfall.  Just amazing.

 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO1/loop90.html

[olafminesaw]

Treasure Beach may take the brunt of the surge

[weatherwiz]

What are the building codes like and what can they withstand? I mean if you're in the eyewall path for landfall and getting sustained category 5 hurricane winds with gusts approaching or exceeding 200 mph, with debris being tossed around...how much can structures take and withstand? 

[pazzo83]

looks like it's doing that thing where it feels the friction of the land so it's trying to stay over water a bit longer.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

Intense based on this webcam from Treasure beach.

 

 

Likely just outside the eyewall but those winds still look maybe 70-90mph

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

What are the building codes like and what can they withstand? I mean if you're in the eyewall path for landfall and getting sustained category 5 hurricane winds with gusts approaching or exceeding 200 mph, with debris being tossed around...how much can structures take and withstand? 

Dorian gives some hope, because a lot of the structures are similar: solid cinder block construction. The concern is the roofs blowing off.

[USCG RS]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

What are the building codes like and what can they withstand? I mean if you're in the eyewall path for landfall and getting sustained category 5 hurricane winds with gusts approaching or exceeding 200 mph, with debris being tossed around...how much can structures take and withstand? 

Helene deleted parts of NC when it hit the area, and I mean truly deleted. It's like civilization was never there in some areas. This is similar in flooding and much worse in wind. Now imagine Jamaica which has nowhere near the infrastructure the United States has. 

[CoastalWx]

MOntego Bay could get the eyewall based on satellite.

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, olafminesaw said:

Dorian gives some hope, because a lot of the structures are similar: solid cinder block construction. The concern is the roofs blowing off.

Yeah, there are a lot of stronger structures from what I've heard and I'll also remind folks that although they should absolutely get extreme winds, it won't be at 185mph sustained. Friction knocks down sustained winds substantially away from exposed places right on the shoreline. Gusts? Those will be wild. 

[MANDA]

[SchaumburgStormer]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

MOntego Bay could get the eyewall based on satellite.

Little left jogs as it approaches landfall are certainly not good for them 

[pazzo83]

Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1983181787473031335

he must be using starlink or something I assume?

[pazzo83]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, there are a lot of stronger structures from what I've heard and I'll also remind folks that although they should absolutely get extreme winds, it won't be at 185mph sustained. Friction knocks down sustained winds substantially away from exposed places right on the shoreline. Gusts? Those will be wild. 

yeah but a good chunk of the country is well above sea level, so those higher gusts will mix in.  But yeah - I feel like concrete construction is more common in the Caribbean and Latin America - problem is there are plenty of people who do not live in well built structures.

[Ace Mahomes]

8 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

Intense based on this webcam from Treasure beach.

 

 

absolutely unreal watching this stream.

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

That's my concern. There are tons of homes scattered among the hills if you look on satellite, that aren't marked as towns on the map

[SchaumburgStormer]

Just now, Ace Mahomes said:

absolutely unreal watching this stream.

Basically a giant rain wrapped tornado cruising at you. 

[GaWx]