October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[psv88]

52 already, gonna be a cold one 

[wthrmn654]

00z icon is not a shift south , it's closer in fact..

[Wxoutlooksblog]

57 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

00z icon is not a shift south , it's closer in fact..

Most models are closer. Check out CMC.
WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

It's not only closer, more than likely it is a pattern changing storm and *could* ultimately take us into a below normal temperature pattern.

WX/PT

[Neblizzard]

0Z EURO is a coastal hugger with 2-5 inches of rain and 40-50 mph winds from the NJ coast up thru NYC.

[Dan76]

7 hours ago, psv88 said:

52 already, gonna be a cold one 

Still in the 50's for most of the island.

[MJO812]

54 here

[LoboLeader1]

47 here, topped off at 68 yesterday.

[ForestHillWx]

44 here; frost advisory put up for tonight. 

[the_other_guy]

49F in Westchester

[IrishRob17]

6 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

It's not only closer, more than likely it is a pattern changing storm and *could* ultimately take us into a below normal temperature pattern.

WX/PT

To that point I posted this is the NW thread 

7 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

The forecasted low for tomorrow morning is 29 here, up from a forecasted 26 when I looked yesterday morning. I don’t know if that will be enough for me to flip on the heat but looking at the weekend as a whole I’m guessing it will be on for a bit at some point. Now as we look at this potential nor'easter I can’t help but think back to falls like 1995 and 2002 when we flipped from warm and dry to stormy and eventually snowy. Now before some weenie starts screaming about how nothing this year looks the same as those years, blah, blah, blah all I’m saying is sometimes, just sometimes, we can look back at an event and say that it started it all. In the words of Rudy’s best friend Pete in that classic movie “Having dreams is what makes life tolerable.” (STFU @BxEngine)
 

 

 

[dmillz25]

52 here

[Sundog]

6z EURO AI thinks this is January 2015 by trying to pull a Juno 2.0 this weekend

[winterwarlock]

43 for low but ive been colder for lows this year. Tomorrow morning is another story. 

 

Today's high will be the coldest since June which was the last day my high didnt reach 70 or above

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

43 for low but ive been colder for lows this year. Tomorrow morning is another story. 

 

Today's high will be the coldest since June which was the last day my high didnt reach 70 or above

How did you get so cold with all this wind

[bluewave]

This storm will pull the trough into the East once it passes. So we have probably seen our last 80° day of the season. But all the cold is locked up in Siberia. So the trough will capture mild Pacific air.

While it will be cooler than we have been experiencing recently, the airmass isn’t that cold for October. So the cooler days will probably be a little below average but nothing too cold for mid-October.

But much more comfortable and fall-like than the record heat of the last few weeks. 

 

 

[MJO812]

53 here

 

Going to be in the mid 40s tomorrow morning 

[Sundog]

Who was predicting a 75 monthly average for October? I forgot who it was, my point is you can't make bold claims like that by using long long range forecasts. 

 

[Snowlover11]

44 for a low

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

How did you get so cold with all this wind

I was 43.7. 

[Brian5671]

Thread set up for the Sun/Mon Storm

 

[psv88]

3 hours ago, Dan76 said:

Still in the 50's for most of the island.

Yea the wind picked up and temps stabilized. 

[chrisNJ]

38 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I was 43.7. 

43.9 here for the low. Mid-30s tomorrow? Hit 38.7 back on 10/3.

[uofmiami]

50.1 in Muttontown & 50.4 in Syosset for the low.

[SACRUS]

 

54 / 44 cool.  Clear low - mid 60s today and a touch warmer Friday.  Deal with the cut off / coastal Sun - Tue with clouds perhaps spoiling Saturday and (rainfall 1 - 3 inches) ending the stretch if nice weekend weather.   Euro cooler with trough building down the EC and ridge centered more into the center, GFS ridge into the ec with deep trough into the west.  Looks like overall near normal / cooler once the coastal leaves but wouldnt be surprised to see the trough into the WC trend deeper and a touch warmer into the east similar to the gfs.   Either way the last summer weather has likely ended outside one or two days till April.

 

[donsutherland1]

It increasingly appears that a powerful nor'easter that will be cut off will bring a prolonged period of rain to the New York City area, along with gusty winds, coastal flooding, and beach erosion. New York City appears to be in line for 1" to perhaps 3" of total rainfall with 2" to perhaps 4" likely for parts of Long Island. There remains some uncertainty concerning the upper part of the range. Parts of the Jersey Shore and Delmarva could see an area of 3"-6" of rain. The 10/9 12z NBE offers a reasonable starting point while the guidance refines the amounts in coming days.

Select NBE Amounts: October 11-15:
Atlantic City: 4.29"
Belmar: 3.48"
Boston: 3.54"
Bridgeport: 3.04"
Farmingdale: 3.15"
Islip: 3.41"
New Haven: 3.04"
New York City-Central Park: 2.71"
New York City-JFK Airport: 3.20"
New York City-Laguardia Airport: 2.80"
Newark: 2.72"
Philadelphia: 2.61"
Poughkeepsie: 2.03"
Salisbury: 4.31"
Westhampton: 3.83"
White Plains: 2.88"

Afterward, the NAO is forecast to plunge below -1.000 while the AO also goes negative. Such blocking is typically associated with cooler and much drier conditions than would otherwise be the case.

ECMWF Weekly Forecasts: October 13-20:

 

ECMWF Weekly Forecasts: October 20-27:

The latest CFSv2 weekly forecasts show drier conditions developing following the nor'easter. However, the CFSv2 is much more aggressive in bringing back the warmth. I suspect that the ECMWF weeklies may have a better idea based on the latest teleconnections forecast. That's not an especially cold outlook, but it would fit the experience with the teleconnections and the fact that the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere is not available to be tapped when the period of blocking develops. Finally, one or more highs of 70° during the second half of October are probably more likely than not given climatology and past cases following a very warm first week of the month.

[FPizz]

27 minutes ago, chrisNJ said:

43.9 here for the low. Mid-30s tomorrow? Hit 38.7 back on 10/3.

I hot 39 that day.  Forecast tonight is for 35.  

[MANDA]

Picked up an additional .16" rainfall after 8am measurement yesterday.  Event total was .47".  Ground moistened for rains later Sunday into Monday.  Chilly and breezy morning here.  Overnight low of 44.  So glad we have moved on from 80+.

Some of the coolest NJ mins attached:

[Picard]

Tonight will be chilly.  The heat will go on for the first time.  Walpack probably makes it well down into the 20s.

[winterwarlock]

3 hours ago, Sundog said:

How did you get so cold with all this wind

Not that windy here..big radiation cooling area  ive already had a 40 an a few more low 40s