NJwx85 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 12 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: A halficane! That is the worst looking cat 4 I've ever seen structurally (realistically has probably dropped back down to cat 3). Should put the lid on intensity, probably for the rest of Erin's truck across the Atlantic It’s going through another EWRC and there’s some Northerly shear. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago The 12Z UKMET gets to only 115 miles SE of Cape Hatteras at hour 72, when it has it still down at 950 mb! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago IR presentation is improving again as deep convection is wrapping around the Western half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 5:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 Location: 24.0°N 71.3°W Moving: NW at 10 mph Min pressure: 937 mb Max sustained: 140 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Erin's cloud pattern has become somewhat less organized than earlier today, likely as a result of some dry air intrusion over the northwestern portion of the circulation and increased northerly shear. An AMSR microwave image from the GCOM satellite showed the dry air intrusion which is consistent with the presence of arc clouds emanating northwestward from the system. The northerly shear has also begun to restrict the outflow to the north of Erin. The intensity is held at 120 kt for now, pending observations from another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft in a few hours. This intensity estimate is also consistent with a blend of objective values from UW-CIMSS. After a west-northwestward wobble earlier today, the hurricane has resumed its northwest course with a motion estimate of 310/9 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains basically unchanged. Over the next 72 hours or so, Erin should turn northward and move through a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and on the western side of a mid-level anticyclone. Later in the forecast period, an approaching mid-level trough should cause Erin to accelerate northeastward over the northern Atlantic. The model guidance and low-level water vapor imagery suggests that the dry air incursion into Erin is probably temporary. However, given the degraded cloud pattern and the less conducive shear over the system, not much additional strengthening is likely. In any event since the system will remain over warm waters for at least the next 72 hours, Erin will likely retain major hurricane status through the middle of the week. The official intensity forecast is at the high end of the model guidance. Erin's continued expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions over much of the western Atlantic. It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected over portions of Hispaniola this evening, and through Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos, the southeast Bahamas, and the easternmost central Bahamas. Flash and urban flooding are possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands and in the southeast Bahamas through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas tonight through Tuesday. 3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning flags. 4. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday where Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watches are in effect. Interests in Bermuda should also monitor the progress of Erin as strong winds are possible beginning on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 24.0N 71.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 24.9N 71.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 26.5N 72.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 28.4N 73.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 30.5N 73.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 32.7N 73.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 34.8N 71.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 38.0N 64.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 41.0N 56.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico Sound A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico Sound A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina. Lezak may get a win for his “likely Carolinas” prediction. *Edited for name typo @BarryStantonGBP 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Consensus model has shifted both north and west this time around! The amount of shifting past few days is remarkable! Euro cmc, and even some of the more reliable hurricane models had a decent shift west/ north at 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Already have water overwashing lower Assateague Island. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Gfs another noticeable shift west and north.... lol this reminds me of winter storms the past few years non stop shifts... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Already have water overwashing lower Assateague Island. We were starting to get some minor over wash at jones beach Ny. Expecting a boardwalk basher on Thursday. The pressure gradient and resulting strong NE winds will pile water up on the south shore of LI and lead to major inundation. Huge swells on top of above normal tides. This may be the most impactful coastal event in years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silver Meteor Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago The Outer Banks are going to get whacked. Thank god they're not going to take a direct hit. Always a gamble out there. ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 15 to 20+ feet expected in the surf zone. * WHERE...The beaches from Duck to Ocracoke. * WHEN...From noon Tuesday to midnight EDT Friday night. * IMPACTS...Extreme beach and coastal damage is likely along the oceanside, resulting in a significant threat to life and property. Large dangerous waves will likely inundate and destroy protective dune structures. Severe flooding will likely extend inland from the waterfront causing flooding of many homes and businesses with some structural damage possible. Numerous roads will likely be impassable under several feet of water and vehicles will likely be submerged. Actions will need to be taken to protect life and property. Very dangerous swimming and surfing conditions expected, as well as the wave action resulting in significant beach erosion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago For now the Northward movement has slowed. It almost appears to be drifting West the last couple of hours. The GFS has been awful with this from the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: For now the Northward movement has slowed. It almost appears to be drifting West the last couple of hours. The GFS has been awful with this from the beginning. Icon and euro AI for the win 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 8:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 Location: 24.1°N 71.5°W Moving: NW at 10 mph Min pressure: 947 mb Max sustained: 130 mph Weakening a bit, and going NW now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 26 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: 8:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 Location: 24.1°N 71.5°W Moving: NW at 10 mph Min pressure: 947 mb Max sustained: 130 mph Weakening a bit, and going NW now. recon shows it south of the 8pm advisory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 11 hours ago Author Share Posted 11 hours ago 3 hours ago, GaWx said: Slezak may get a win for his “likely Carolinas” prediction. @BarryStantonGBP All hail lezak 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Anyone know why the AF recon earlier today did this pattern?https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF308-1705A-ERIN.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 12 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: Anyone know why the AF recon earlier today did this pattern?https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF308-1705A-ERIN.png First thing that came to mind: (or "cane to mind"... get it?) I'll show myself out. edit: alright... sampling? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago At 0000 UTC, 19 August 2025, MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN (AL05) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 24°N and 71.4°W. The current intensity was 115 kt and the center was moving at 7 kt at a bearing of 320 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 947 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 00z, looks like nhc tracks to far east at first glance. More so when it is starting the north east turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 23 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: Anyone know why the AF recon earlier today did this pattern?https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF308-1705A-ERIN.png They list the next day’s flights here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml Today’s are here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. HURRICANE ERIN FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 77 18/1600Z AFXXX 1705A ERIN 18/1400Z NA 18/1545Z TO 18/2015Z SFC TO 10,000 FT BUOY DEPLOYMENT WRA ACTIVATION it seems like they were deploying buoys, i guess to sample stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 11:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 Location: 24.4°N 71.7°W Moving: NW at 8 mph Min pressure: 949 mb Max sustained: 125 mph 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Erin is crawling right now. With its large circulation, upwelling is starting to become a real issue for it. Additionally, Erin is really helping to bring down SSTs east of the Bahamas. This should help keep anything down the road that traverses that region in check until SSTs can rebound somewhat in late August and early September. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: Erin is crawling right now. With its large circulation, upwelling is starting to become a real issue for it. Additionally, Erin is really helping to bring down SSTs east of the Bahamas. This should help keep anything down the road that traverses that region in check until SSTs can rebound somewhat in late August and early September. Totally agree looks like dry air and northerly shear taking its toll too. Erin does not look healthy at all on all satellite IR and water vapor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago There is not much change to the track forecast reasoning, with the hurricane still expected to recurve over the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda over the next 3-4 days. The main highlight of the new forecast is that much of the track guidance, including the consensus aids, have shifted slightly west of the previous NHC prediction during the first 2-3 days. The new NHC forecast is very close to the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids during the first 48 hours, and then closer to the TVCA aid beyond 48 hours. It should be noted that there is still some space for additional adjustments to the track forecast, particularly beyond 48 hours with the HCCA aid lying along the northwestern edge of the guidance envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The more important part of the forecast is that model guidance has continued to show Erin growing in size, and the wind radii have been made larger in the new NHC forecast. This new forecast now brings tropical-storm-force winds very close to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast later this week. Erin's expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions over much of the western Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Erin has gone from looking like a West Pacific beast to a West Pacific beast as it drifts off shore of Tokyo. A shell of it's former self. Scrambled eggos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: Erin is crawling right now. With its large circulation, upwelling is starting to become a real issue for it. Additionally, Erin is really helping to bring down SSTs east of the Bahamas. This should help keep anything down the road that traverses that region in check until SSTs can rebound somewhat in late August and early September. True. The cold wake for Erin should be substantial given that it exploded to a 5 while in the lower latitudes and has since been churning at a deliberate pace. Doubtful the train of oranges and lemons currently trailing Erin can borrow anywhere near as much energy as she did over a 200 miles radius from its path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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