August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[Santa Claus]

aggressive misting

[LibertyBell]

On 8/16/2025 at 7:54 PM, vegan_edible said:

has anyone else noticed a lot of yellow leaves? i cant tell if im tripping but i feel like im seeing a decent amount of yellow leaves for august. mainly between white plains and armonk, but can someone at least talk me off the ledge... summer can't be over yet

not just yellow leaves, but leaves have actually been falling here for a few days now

[donsutherland1]

The temperature peaked at 70° in Central Park. That was the coolest high temperature since June 17 when the high was 67°.

Showers and periods of rain are likely into tomorrow. Most areas should see 0.50" or less of rain. However, some spots could see heavier rain.

High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s tomorrow and then climb into the lower 80s on Friday through the weekend. 

The extended range guidance continues to suggest that the closing week of August could feature below normal temperatures. Precipitation could be near normal. 

There will be higher-than-climatological risk of at least one period in September with highs in the upper 80s or perhaps 90s. Summers similar to the current one have had September highs of 90 or above about 10 percentage points above that for all other years.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was -8.56 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.972 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.6° (1.5° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.6° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 8/16/2025 at 2:08 PM, bluewave said:

Yeah, pretty sure the warm spots away from the water in Queens would have recorded over 50 days reaching 90° back in 2010 since Mineola did. 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 90° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	59
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	54
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	52
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	51
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	50
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	48
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	46
NY	BRONX	COOP	45
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	41
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	40
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	37
CT	DANBURY	COOP	37
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	35
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	34
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	33
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	32
NJ	CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	31
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	27
NY	MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP	WBAN	26
CT	MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	25
NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	24
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	24
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	22
CT	ANSONIA 1 NW	COOP	22

 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 95° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	21
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	20
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	18
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	18
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	17
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	16
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	14
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	12
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	12
NY	BRONX	COOP	11
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	11
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	10
CT	DANBURY	COOP	10

 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 100° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	MINEOLA	COOP	6
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	4
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	4
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	4
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	3
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	3
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	3
CT	DANBURY	COOP	3

Nassau County really needs a micronet, there are probably big differences from the barrier islands to Sunrise Highway let alone what happens farther north.

Sea breezes are very local and don't usually make it more than 2 miles inland.

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, these are pretty much the hottest summers as I remember them-- I'm surprised that 1983 isn't on this list though, that was hot from June through September and set records for that era.

 

Don, where would 1983 be on this list with September included?

[WestBabylonWeather]

I’m not ready for this. One more month of heat please. 

[anthonymm]

2 hours ago, MANDA said:

Not everybody's idea of a nice August day but honestly I'm loving it.  Done with heat and humidity.  Ready to move on.

It's still too humid. The dew should never go above 60.

[anthonymm]

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

this entire month has been pretty cool, summer ended when July ended

Last several summer/winters have been all front loaded. Winter 23-24 died after that one week cold spell in January. The following summer also died in August, with September being almost chilly. This past winter died in mid February as well, with march being a blowtorch.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

It's still too humid. The dew should never go above 60.

definitely, I hate this humidity, now it's just cool and clammy

[IrishRob17]

Steady soaking light rain, up to .58”, 56/55. There’s fog streamers rising from the Wallkill River and local ponds. 

[Franklin0529]

Pouring in  northern Monmouth county 

[donsutherland1]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, where would 1983 be on this list with September included?

11th June-August and 3rd if June-September is used.

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Pouring in  northern Monmouth county 

Heavy downpour here now too

[weathermedic]

Heavy rain now where I’m at on Staten Island 

[Franklin0529]

Like a tropical storm rain band. Absolute deluge 

[mob1]

Really pouring here now (SI) with some moderate flash flooding.  

[Stormlover74]

Steady rain continues

[Intensewind002]

Up to 0.69 for me in Lindenhurst 

[SI Mailman]

1 hour ago, weathermedic said:

Heavy rain now where I’m at on Staten Island 

Yep, up to .89 for the day with over a half inch in that hour

[jm1220]

Moderate coastal flooding expected along the south shore tomorrow evening. Definitely enough to flood the low lying spots in Freeport, Lindenhurst, Island Park etc. 

[IrishRob17]

1.54" on the day with light rain now, 56/55. 

[lee59]

.57 so far here today

[donsutherland1]

The temperature in White Plains has now fallen into the 50s. That is the 7th day this month and the most during August 1-20 since 2013.