July Discobs 2025

[high risk]

Love seeing the activity in Anne Arundel and points east moving the northeast, while all of the activity in PG and points west is moving south. 

[Interstate]

22 minutes ago, mappy said:

On the edge of precip, on/off drizzle most of the morning. Muggy AF 

I am okay with this.  I have 12U tryouts tonight at 6PM

[North Balti Zen]

Just waves of tropical downpours for 10 minutes or so each time, and then stops, and then returns all morning into the early afternoon downtown Baltimore. Like being in Charleston, SC in August...

[IronTy]

Now the sun has come out.  No humidity out there at all...

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

Just waves of tropical downpours for 10 minutes or so each time, and then stops, and then returns all morning into the early afternoon downtown Baltimore. Like being in Charleston, SC in August...

Bawlmore summer is like the Carolinas these days.

[WxUSAF]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Radar looks juicy for Anne Arundel county. Hoping some sneaks into SE HoCo

Mostly did not sneak into HoCo. Somewhere just shy of 0.05”. WPC says I’ve got 3.5” to go this week. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

1.26” today so far.

[Weather Will]

Sunny and hot here after some overcast skies at midday.

[frd]

Rain just starting here, with a strong smell of smoke in the air. Have no idea why that is, unless someone is burning yardwaste.  

[North Balti Zen]

20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Mostly did not sneak into HoCo. Somewhere just shy of 0.05”. WPC says I’ve got 3.5” to go this week. 

Just gonna take a flush hit from one or two of the rounds of moisture to make them right at any given part of our area. I guess we have four days for that to happen. It is, as we can ALL agree, a particular juicy airmass...

[Eskimo Joe]

23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Mostly did not sneak into HoCo. Somewhere just shy of 0.05”. WPC says I’ve got 3.5” to go this week. 

NAM et al seem to favor areas east of I-95 for this week's activity. West of Frederick it looks like very little in the way of precipitation almost.

[nw baltimore wx]

1 hour ago, Interstate said:

I am okay with this.  I have 12U tryouts tonight at 6PM

I thought you were older. Anyway, about .05” today but sunny and muggy now.

[Interstate]

36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Mostly did not sneak into HoCo. Somewhere just shy of 0.05”. WPC says I’ve got 3.5” to go this week. 

Just some very light rain that didn't even measure in my gauge... looks like it is done for the day too.

[yoda]

Yay

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1231 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ057-080045-
/O.NEW.KLWX.HT.Y.0006.250708T1700Z-250708T2300Z/
Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St.
Marys-Calvert-Southeast Harford-King George-
1231 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 105 expected, up to 107 degrees
  closer to the Chesapeake Bay.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Anne Arundel, Prince Georges, Cecil,
  Southeast Harford, Southern Baltimore, Calvert, Charles, and St.
  Marys Counties. In Virginia, King George County.

* WHEN...From 1 PM to 7 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
  illnesses.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of
the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and
Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in
shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat
should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an
emergency! Call 9 1 1.

[87storms]

We’re finally having a proper summer, and it’s kind of awesome.

[frd]

So far its been rather blah.  Seems that the rainfall area is speeding up possibly and also weakening. Many areas to my South and SW did well. 

I thought earlier today this event would destroy my garden with flooding, but by the looks of it on radar at this time I am worrying less now. 

 

[weatherCCB]

90/74

[frd]

Big rainfall winners in Delaware goes to areas far to my South and SSW.

To my SSW  Marydel, Hourglass and Chapeltown with near 2.5 to 3 inches. Meanwhile at my hood .17 and the rain area  is moving away now, sorry flood watch. 

 

I think @CAPE must have done well when all is said and done. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Big rainfall winners in Delaware goes to areas far to my South and SSW.

To my SSW  Marydel, Hourglass and Chapeltown with near 2.5 to 3 inches. Meanwhile at my hood .17 and the rain area  is moving away now, sorry flood watch. 

 

I think @CAPE must have done well when all is said and done. 

0.84"

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z 3K NAM, hopefully more widespread chances for thunderstorms tomorrow west to east starting around 3pm.

[SnowtoRain]

0.80"

[pazzo83]

feels like we are getting an inordinate number of days so far with dews of 75F-80F.  Not comfortable at all out.

[George BM]

7 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

feels like we are getting an inordinate number of days so far with dews of 75F-80F.  Not comfortable at all out.

Yes. Definitely different from last summer so far which featured periods of higher temps but, overall, lower dewpoints when we were in the thick of the drought.

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

0.84"

That's the total including 0.12" that fell yesterday late afternoon.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Seems we're working on a new drought.  As expected, not a drop again.

[CAPE]

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
731 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Jul 08 2025 - 12Z Wed Jul 09 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE EASTERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, AS WELL AS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...
Post-tropical cyclone Chantal will be exiting east of Cape Cod to
start the period as it continues to get caught up in increasing
southwesterlies downstream of a trough approaching from the Great
Lakes. This trough will continue to translate eastward through the
day, but will be slow to advect due to downstream Bermuda-type
ridging. Between these two features, SW flow will remain prevalent
over the area, with 850-500mb winds being nearly unidirectional
from the W/SW at 15-20 kts. This will result in a continued
extremely moist environment with PWs likely eclipsing 2" from
eastern VA through southern New England Tuesday afternoon,
coincident with a plume of SBCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg.

Into these impressive thermodynamics, a shortwave embedded within
the mean flow will traverse northeast ahead of a cold front and
along a surface trough, providing additional ascent atop the
already impressive convergence on these boundaries. This suggests
showers and thunderstorms will become widespread, which is
additionally supported by high-res CAM simulated reflectivity.
Storms that develop will move very slowly, and Corfidi vectors
collapsed to just around 5 kts will support backbuilding and
training echoes along the surface trough and front. With warm cloud
depths potentially eclipsing 14,000 ft, this will support efficient
warm-rain processes and rain rates above 2"/hr at times. Where
training occurs, this could result in total rainfall in excess of
3", with instances of flash flooding possible across much of the
I-95 corridor from Richmond, VA to Portland, ME, and a slight risk
has been added for this area.

[snowfan]

Both the 0Z HRRR and 3K showing a strong signal for storms moving west to east tomorrow afternoon. 3K perhaps showing signs of a bow exiting east across the bay onto the eastern shore.