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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat


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Any thoughts on what went wrong to keep the historic heat away? Looking at the overall rankings (projected through the end of the month), certainly very high compared to the entire period of record. But, in the year 2025, I wouldn't call this historic. If this were 2000, maybe. But looking under the hood, even the very highly ranked sites are only running in line with recent years...

E.g., Burlington is forecast to finish 6th since 1884, yet it's only the 5th hottest July in the last 7 years, leading me to believe that, in the current regime, it was actually a rather cool July?

nJe0kcx.png

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As we compare the next several years to the 1991-2020 climate regime, it will be more difficult to notice greater departures unless we reach the next level of heat...which would be widespread lower 100's and occurring multiple times over the course of the summer. It isn't impossible that will happen but a ton would have to go right IMO to happen. What we're most likely going to continue doing is seeing consistent and a longer seasonal duration of dewpoints well into the 70's and continuing the uphill climb of overnight lows. 

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11 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Any thoughts on what went wrong to keep the historic heat away? Looking at the overall rankings (projected through the end of the month), certainly very high compared to the entire period of record. But, in the year 2025, I wouldn't call this historic. If this were 2000, maybe. But looking under the hood, even the very highly ranked sites are only running in line with recent years...

E.g., Burlington is forecast to finish 6th since 1884, yet it's only the 5th hottest July in the last 7 years, leading me to believe that, in the current regime, it was actually a rather cool July?

nJe0kcx.png

Higher dews keep the temperature from spiking as high.  I feel like there have been so many days with dews AOA 70 but temperatures save for a handful of days have been pedestrian warm vs historic.  Yet to my body the feel has been oppressive many days this summer.

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Mm  the signal performed ... it just didn't extend as far as it could have, given those indicators as they appeared at the beginning of the month.  There's multiple sources available on the web for cumulative means, but this blw is from the PRISM group/Oregon State U.  It shows through the 28th where the anomalies, relative to normal climatology, have amassed over the last 4 weeks.  This is impressive enough ... given this is a month's worth of aggregated data.  There were probably individual days per the course that were greater, as there were days lower than this mean anomaly.  It's going to be tough to put up mean anomalies that extend much above +5 in July, compared to say ...March, because July is a perennial climate ceiling in the temperature curve.  It is more constrained by broader systemic limitations at the higher side. 

 

image.png.01b488e9ffa9641a3d4155f4d0a1df53.png

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22 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Wow 99 Newark at 1pm.
 

Even 95 at my house for the 4th time this summer when my previous high was 94.6

EWR almost always leads the pack.  Since Jan 1, 2000 they've recorded 37 days of 100+ (including 3 last month) while Central Park has had only 6.  EWR is a bit milder in the cold season as well, with 355 days with maxima 32 or lower over the same period.  NYC has had 403.

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