Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,096
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    happyclam13
    Newest Member
    happyclam13
    Joined

July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability


wdrag
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

so their equivalent of the Bermuda high stalled and created the marine heatwave and it's been happening every year for like 5-6 years now Chris?

Wow, if that ever happened here....

 

It’s part of the record subtropical ridge expansion this decade across the Northern Hemisphere.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Don, looking ahead to August, is there any respite from the heat and humidity? Seems that July has been brutal in recent years with a break in August and then return to hot weather in September.

I suspect that the first week of August could turn cooler and less humid for at least a time, as a powerful heat dome retrogrades to the Rockies. But above normal temperatures will likely return during the second week of the month. However, as that's still far in the future, the guidance can yet change.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Hoping for the South Shore desert to do its job next weekend. I need it to be dry in Patchogue for the Great South Bay Festival. Let's see what we can do to juggle the forecast around to make it happen :)

The lineup is amazing!! May go just to see pigeons playing ping pong 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

82 with a dewpoint of 59 here right now. Feels good out there.

I'm looking forward to early next week when dewpoints will go even lower. They might get down to the high 40s on Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday it will be top 10 day of the year type of weather. 

Take advantage of the great weather early next week before the heat comes back late week. The Euro is saying we could hit 100 next Friday. That might be a little overdone, but it'll be at least mid to upper 90s. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I must be in some local hot spot, all the stations are close to 84 degrees. 

The dewpoint is in the low 60s though, amazing how dry low 60s dewpoints can feel when they've been near 80 for days. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and warm. Highs will reach the lower and middle 80s. A shower or thundershower is possible in the evening or overnight as a warm front crosses the region.

Sunday will be steamy with highs in the middle and perhaps upper 80s. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday evening into Monday morning as a cold front moves across the region. There is some severe weather and excessive rainfall potential.

Behind the front, it will turn somewhat cooler and much less humid through the middle of next week. Monday through Wednesday should feature bright sunshine, low humidity, and pleasant temperatures mainly in the lower 80s. Low temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday morning should be in the 60s in New York City. Some outlying areas could see lows fall into the upper 50s on Tuesday morning.

No widespread and sustained excessive or record-challenging heat appears likely through the first three weeks of July. However, some of the guidance continues to show a brief surge of high heat late next week. The 12z ECMWF and EPS is particularly bullish with the potential heat.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.1°C for the week centered around July 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +7.20 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.122 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.9° (1.4° above normal). 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

82 with a dewpoint of 59 here right now. Feels good out there.

I'm looking forward to early next week when dewpoints will go even lower. They might get down to the high 40s on Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday it will be top 10 day of the year type of weather. 

Take advantage of the great weather early next week before the heat comes back late week. The Euro is saying we could hit 100 next Friday. That might be a little overdone, but it'll be at least mid to upper 90s. 

Next Tuesday it's going to be in the upper 70s.

We'll see about that 100+ next Friday, if it does get very hot again it'll only last 2 days like it did in June.

 

 

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Next Tuesday it's going to be in the upper 70s.

We'll see about that 100+ next Friday, if it does get very hot again it'll only last 2 days like it did in June.

 

 

Just keep the high dewpoints away. They make everything far more miserable than high heat does. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...