July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[winterwarlock]

89/78/101

[LoboLeader1]

89F/71

[WestBabylonWeather]

Clouds cleared nicely here not a cloud on sight now. Renting a paddle boat on Belmont lake was fun. But it was super hot 

[Poker2015]

Is that some rotation on the storm in Hunterdon County?

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

Bring on heatwave #5

More disgusting weather...yay 

[FPizz]

Raining pretty hard, worst looks to go just south, maybe by warlock

[winterwx21]

15 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Raining pretty hard, worst looks to go just south, maybe by warlock

And it appears that cell is gonna miss me just to the south. That heavy downpour in southern Somerset County is gonna go into central and southern Middlesex County. 

[FPizz]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

And it appears that cell is gonna miss me just to the south. That heavy downpour in southern Somerset County is gonna go into central and southern Middlesex County. 

Got .12" from it

[Poker2015]

.06" here...whiff

[winterwarlock]

pouring here..what else is new..another rainy late afternoon in the summer...seems like a broken record

 

hit 91 with peak heat index of 103

[winterwarlock]

50 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

More disgusting weather...yay 

disgusting is days and days of rain chances so hopefully no

[donsutherland1]

Parts of the region saw the mercury soar into the lower 90s today. LaGuardia Airport (92°) and Newark (94°) both reached 90° or above.

A front will cross the region this evening. It could trigger some scattered showers and thundershowers.

Behind the front, it will turn cooler and much less humid for tomorrow through the middle of next week. Tomorrow through Wednesday should feature bright sunshine, low humidity, and pleasant temperatures topping out mainly in the lower 80s. Low temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday morning should be in the lower and middle 60s in New York City. Some outlying areas could see lows fall into the upper 50s, especially on Tuesday morning.

A brief surge of heat is likely for Thursday through Saturday. Much of the region will see the temperature top out near or above 90° during these days. Friday will likely be the hottest day with temperatures reaching the middle 90s in New York City and upper 90s to near 100° in the hot spots, including Newark.

Afterward, it will turn cooler, but readings will likely remain somewhat above normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.1°C for the week centered around July 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +14.28 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.456 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.1° (1.6° above normal). 

 

[SnoSki14]

35 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

disgusting is days and days of rain chances so hopefully no

More very humid weather will most certainly lead to more rain and a lot of it 

[WestBabylonWeather]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

More very humid weather will most certainly lead to more rain and a lot of it 

I miss the summer drought we had a couple years ago. At least here on Long Island. It was sunny for months 

[nycwinter]

i will enjoy the next few days of delightful weather might even have to wear a blanket  at night..

[steve392]

Parts of monmouth county had 5" of rain earlier today with flooding.  Got lightning warnings for my area in Mahwah now.

[psv88]

91 today 

[steve392]

Had a brief shower at work. Died out while it loved southeast.  Great looking cloud structure with sunset lighting it up. 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Highs:


 

EWR: 94
LGA: 93
TEB: 92
ACY: 91
PHL: 91
New Brnswck: 91
ISP: 88
TTN: 88
NYC: 88
JFK: 87 * missing intra hour highs (likely 88 or 89)
BLM: 86 * missing 13 hours 

 

[uofmiami]

89.4 in Muttontown & 89.0 in Syosset today. Nice summer day IMO. 

[Brian5671]

Nice dump of rain here-much needed

[doncat]

92 high today on si with no rain.

[psv88]

No rain here today other than some sprinkles and light showers this morning which amounted to 0.02.
 

Eastern Suffolk been getting crushed all evening 

[jm1220]

Outflow boundary coming through-nice breeze finally. 

[dmillz25]

91 for the high here yesterday 

[bluewave]

Our next chance of 100° heat coming on Friday.

 

[SACRUS]

 

76 / 64 clear.   Hello sunshine - nice stretch of weather coinciding with peak summer.   Mid/ upper 80s, stray 90 in the hot areas today, much drier.   Tuesday low - mid 80s and a touch warmer Wed mid 80s for most, some upper 80s in the hot spots.  Ridge builds in raising heights >594 DM and heat by Thu and through the upcoming weekend,  strong heat Fri / Sat (pending on clouds) and Sun (if enough clearing).  By Monday the ridge is pulling west and while heights remain elevated some onshore undercuts the ridge for us to close the month.  Ridge centered in the MS valley (ish), spells overall war -hot and wetter with heat expanding east by the 3rd.

 

7/21 - 7/23 :  Sweet stretch drier, sunny, warm (cooler)
7/24 - 7/27:  Hot, humid , strong heat (95+) Fri / Sat.  Storms focus on Sat PM/ Sun
7/28 - 8/2 : Warm - Hot and wetter overall - Onshore
8/3 - Beyond :  Hotter 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 103 (2011)
NYC: 104 (1977)
LGA: 100 (2019)
JFK: 99 (2019)
New Brnswck: 102 (1930)


Lows:

EWR: 56 (1951)
NYC: 55 (1890)
LGA: 62 (1974)
JFK: 58 (1965)
New Brnswck 51 (1966)

 

 

Historical:

 

1911 - The temperature at Painter, WY, dipped to 10 degrees to equal the record low for July for the continental U.S. (The Weather Channel)

1930: The state record for Delaware was established that day with a reading of 110 °F at Millsboro, Delaware. (Ref. Lowest and Highest Temperatures for the 50 States)

1934 - The temperature reached 109 degrees at Cincinnati, OH, to cap their hottest summer of record. The state record for Ohio was established that day with a reading of 113 degrees near the town of Gallipolis. (David Ludlum)

1939: Richmond, Virginia had a high temperature for the day of 65 °F making it the coolest July day on record (records since 1897). (Ref. Richmond Weather Records)

1942: This is the only occurrence Miami, FL has ever seen 100°. (Extreme Weather p. 273, by Christopher C. Burt)

1947: Holt, MO records world record 12 inches of rain in only 42 minutes.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1975 - Six inches of rain fell across Mercer County, NJ, in just ten hours causing the worst flooding in twenty years. Assunpink Creek crested eleven feet above flood stage at Hamilton and Trenton, the highest level of record. Traffic was brought to a standstill, and railway service between New York City and Washington D.C. was cut off for two days. Flooding left 1000 persons homeless, and caused an estimated 25 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

 

1979: Parts of Lancaster County into the west central Chester County, Pennsylvania region was hit with torrential rain during the morning, with most of the rain falling in about 5 hours. In Chester County, Newlinville received 8.11 inches and Valley Township 7.56 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

1986: A tremendous heat wave continued across the South. This was the 15th day in a row with 100° plus degree readings at Columbia, SC. Macon, GA topped out at 106 °F. It was also the 10th consecutive day with 100° degree plus heat at Macon. (Extreme Weather p. 273, by Christopher C. Burt) (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Utah to North Dakota, spawning a dozen tornadoes in North Dakota. Thunderstorms in North Dakota also produced baseball size hail at Clifford which caused four million dollars damage, and high winds which toppled a couple of eighty foot towers cutting off power to the town of Blanchard. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - While cool air invaded the central U.S., unseasonably hot weather continued over the western states. The temperature at Spring Valley, NV, soared from a morning low of 35 degrees to an afternoon high of 95 degrees. Fallon, NV, reported an all-time record high of 108 degrees, and Death Valley, CA, reported their sixth straight day of 120 degree heat. (The Weather Channel) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Afternoon thunderstorms over Florida produced wind gusts to 92 mph at Jacksonville, damaging thirteen light planes at Herlong Field. Five cities in Texas reported record low temperatures for the date. Corpus Christi, TX, equalled their record low for the date with a reading of 71 degrees, and then tied their record high for the date that afternoon with a reading of 97 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)


1991: Boston, MA recorded 81 °F for the warmest low temperature. 100 degree readings are not common in Rhode Island, but the mercury topped out at 102° at Providence on this day, the second day in a row that the thermometer reached the century mark.  (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1993: The Mississippi River crested at 46.9 feet at St. Louis, MO, easily breaking the old record of 43.2 feet established in the 1973 flood. The 11 mile long, 52 foot high flood wall kept water out of the city center. In spite of all the damage the flood did, it is estimated that without all of the flood-control measures in place today, the price tag from the flood would have easily doubled its astronomical $20 billion total. The record crest would be topped again on August 1st.  The heavy rainfall that occurred earlier in the month set the stage for what became the flood of the century in Iowa. The city of Des Moines was very hard hit. At the peak of the flooding, nearly 35,000 households were without electricity and 50,000 were without power. Water service was out for 250,000 people, which is the largest water outage in United States history. Losses to the businesses in Des Moines were estimated at $800 million dollars, from physical damage to the buildings and lost business. Other damage in Des Moines included $30 million dollars to homes, $75 million dollars to the levee system and $20 million dollars to the water treatment plant. Damage to West Des Moines was also well over $30 million dollars. Crop damage was extensive as 6.5 million acres of cropland were damaged by the flood. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1995: A camper at Colonial Beach in Westmoreland County, VA took refuge under a tree during a thunderstorm. The tree was struck by lightning, which in turn caused second degree burns over 20 percent of the camper's body. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)

1997: Extreme flooding occurred over Baldwin County, Alabama as the remnants of Hurricane Danny drifted slowly northeastward after dumping 30 inches of rain over coastal Alabama. The worst flooding occurred around the Fish River where 500 homes were damaged. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1999: The Cedar River in Charles City, IA reached its all-time crest of an estimated 22.8 feet. Approximately 100 homes had flood damage in Charles City. Almost 12 inches of rain fell in a 48 hours period over these counties. Rainfall totals that day: New Hampton, IA: 7.10 inches (wettest day on record), Charles City, IA: 6.65 inches, West Union, IA: 4 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2006: Western Washington: An unusual heat wave in western Washington breaks five maximum temperature records: Vancouver at 104°F, Olympia at 100°F, Seattle at 97°F, and Hoquiam at 90°F. (Ref. WxDoctor)

2011:  at 4:50 PM Chicago bakes in first back-to-back 100-degree days in 16 years since deadly heat wave in July 1995 The mercury hit 101 degrees at Midway Airport at 4:40 pm Thursday afternoon marking the second straight day of triple-digit heat there. This was the city's first encounter with back- to-back 100-degree days in 16 years since the deadly heat wave of July 1995. Back then the mercury soared to 106 degrees on July 13 and was followed by a 102 degree high on July 14. The city's official site at O'Hare Airport has fallen just short of triple-digit heat for the second straight day. Today official high there was 99 degrees recorded at 1:58 pm. On Wednesday the 20th the city's official high at O'Hare international Airport was also 99 degrees. (Ref. WGN Chicago Weather Center - Tom Skilling)

[SACRUS]

 

Latest sst anomay (Atlantic)

 

[wdrag]

Fun times ahead for the extremists.  As mentioned in several earlier posts this past page or two... EPS is going ahead with two or three 100+ days at KEWR Fri-Sun and an active potential FF pattern Sun-Mon.  No thread at this time but the 95+ heat returns with only one caveat...return flow cloud-moisture mid week might temper the actual temp a bit.

No thread at this time due to the more seasonably normal nature of the coming events though if it looks like 5+ is assured in some spots, will  then thread.  NYC 100+ would also need a thread (from my view) but too early for me to confidently express.  

579DM 1000-500MB thickness prompts the concerns late this week-weekend.

---

In the meantime, I was involved in the FFW results yesterday (Sunday) morning 7/20 , near Lakewood-Point Pleasant NJ where a solid 2-3" drenching occurred 5-630AM.  Was lucky not stranded on Arnold St  Pt Pleasant (hub cap deep runoff).  That was the event I was looking for in the prior long range. but was too small to thread. 

Back home...have a day.