2025 summer max contest -- THURSDAY JUNE 19 LAST DAY FOR ENTRIES -- enter by 06z June 20

[Roger Smith]

As always, predict the highest temperatures to be expected this summer at the four airports:

DCA

IAD

BWI

RIC

and I will start the ball rolling with 101, 101, 102 and 100. 

Contest deadline 06z June 20 2025 (end of Thursday June 19th)

... I have adjusted the deadline in view of model forecasts of possible high values around 22nd-23rd, to avoid having last minute nowcasts competing with forecasts submitted in advance. ... we seem to be on track to receive a good turnout of entries ... 

Tie-breaker details: lowest errors break ties, order of entry the last level separating ties

For example, 0 1 1 1 beats 0 1 2 0. ... 2 1 1 1 beats 2 2 1 0. ... June 12th beats June 15th.

___ DEFENDING 2024 WINNER: Jebman ___ 

 

[George BM]

DCA: 100F

IAD: 99F

BWI: 101F

RIC: 101F

[nw baltimore wx]

DCA: 98F

IAD: 98F

BWI: 99F

RIC: 99F

[PrinceFrederickWx]

DCA: 97

IAD: 96

BWI: 97

RIC: 97

[WxUSAF]

DCA: 99

IAD: 97

BWI: 100

RIC: 99

[Rhino16]

DCA: 99

IAD: 99

BWI: 99 

RIC: 101

[NorthArlington101]

#itneverhits100

DCA: 99

IAD: 99

BWI: 99

RIC: 99

[MillvilleWx]

DCA: 99

IAD: 99

BWI: 100

RIC: 102

[DanTheMan]

Guess i’ll go nuts and say we get some sort of crazy anomalous day:

DCA: 101

IAD: 103

BWI: 104

RIC: 103

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

DCA: 99

IAD: 99

BWI: 99

RIC: 100

[RickinBaltimore]

DCA - 99

IAD - 98

BWI - 98

RIC - 99

[Its a Breeze]

Oof. My first AND second choices already taken

DCA - 98

IAD - 98

BWI - 98

RIC - 99

[toolsheds]

DCA: 99F

IAD: 97F

BWI: 99F

RIC: 101F

[wxdude64]

DCA: 100

IAD: 100

BWI: 102

RIC: 100

[Roger Smith]

Please note, I had originally chosen June 22-23 as deadline (23rd 06z) but in view of current model projections I have adjusted the deadline forward to June 20 at 06z, or end of the day Thursday of next week ... I don't believe this will have much impact on turnout which is trending towards the usual 20-30 entries already. And I wanted to avoid a situation where a record high on the day after deadline attracts a number of very small over-run of deadline entries, this way, I can have a table of entries ready before the heat arrives and a clear barrier to last minute nowcast type entries. 

[tplbge]

Just now, tplbge said:

 

DCA: 102

IAD: 100

BWI: 101

RIC: 101

[PrinceFrederickWx]

On 6/6/2025 at 10:53 AM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

DCA: 97

IAD: 96

BWI: 97

RIC: 97

If edits are still allowed, I'd like to adjust up one degree at each airport:

DCA: 98

IAD: 97

BWI: 98

RIC:98

[gopper]

DCA: 103

IAD: 102

BWI: 102

RIC: 102

[biodhokie]

DCA: 100

IAD: 101

BWI: 101

RIC: 100

[GramaxRefugee]

DCA: 100

IAD: 101

BWI: 102

RIC: 101

[batmanbrad]

DCA:  103

IAD:  101

BWI:  102

RIC:  100

[Roger Ramjet]

DCA - 102

IAD - 101

BWI - 103

RIC - 103

[WEATHER53]

DCA:98

IAD:99

BWI:100

RIC:99

Ladt  summers champ with an incredible departure total of ONE is in da house!!!!

or was it the year before?

[Roger Smith]

You may still enter the contest until 0200h EDT (06z June 20) ... I am posting this now to give last-minute entrants and current forecasters a quick overview of forecasts already made ... so far twenty-one have entered and all have managed to find a unique set of values.The consensus as median gives a slightly different outcome to means, so I may change the contest consensus to a mean value if it gives a better set of numbers. At 0200h or a few minutes later, I will edit out this table and post it after all on-time forecasts that may be placed below in the thread. If there are no further forecasts I will just edit this part instead. I may boost my own forecasts, it is looking very hot early next week under a near-600 dm upper high. If so, all other forecasts will drop one number in order of entry.

 

__ Table of entries __ 2025 seasonal max __

 

FORECASTER _________________ DCA _IAD _BWI _RIC

gopper (16) ____________________ 103 _ 102 _ 102 _ 102

batmanbrad (19) _______________ 103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100

Roger Ramjet (20) _____________ 102 _ 101 _ 103 _ 103

tplbge (14) _____________________ 102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101

DanTheMan (8) ________________ 101 _ 103 _ 104 _ 103

Roger Smith (1) _________________ 101 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100

GramaxRefugee (18) ____________100 _ 101 _ 102 _ 101

biodhokie (17) __________________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100

wxdude64 (13) _________________ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 100

George BM (2) _________________ 100 __ 99 _ 101 _ 101

___ consensus _________________ 99  __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 

MillvilleWx (7) ___________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102

Rhino16 (5) ______________________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 101

Jenkins Jinkies (9) ______________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100

NorthArlington101 (6) ____________99 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99

RickinBaltimore (10) _____________ 99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99

WxUSAF (4) _____________________ 99 __ 97 _ 100 __ 99

toolsheds (12) ___________________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101

Weather53 (21) __________________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99

nw baltimore wx (3) _____________ 98 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99

Its A Breeze (11) _________________ 98 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99

Prince Frederick Wx (15) ________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98

____________________________

Consensus is median of forecasts. The mean of forecasts is 99.9, 99.5, 100.4, 100.3 or 100 _ 100 _ 100 _ 100,

Of 21 forecasts, nine have all locations at 100 or higher, five have no locations reaching 100F, seven have a blend. 

Ranges are 98-103, 97-103, 98-104, 98-103