Solution Man Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 Just now, Terpeast said: NAM at 45, confluence further NE and s/w diggier Sounds good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 Just now, Solution Man said: Sounds good Can’t hurt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 9 minutes ago, Terpeast said: If we get another 1/30/10, I think it would make 80% of the forum happy. Myself included If Jan 2010 can bump us from zero to hero in the short range, this one can do better. It just needs to make the turn and fiddle around with the polar/northern stream energy. The WAA part is already prog'd more expansive and further north than 2010. Any modest turn exiting the coast prob hits the entire dmv area with a nice storm. Well, "nice storm" as long as you didn't marry the mid range fantasy maulers lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 January 2010 was the one storm that shifted north just in time to clock Baltimore with warning snows. As much as I’d love to see the same with the midweek storm, I also know this isn’t 2009-10 anymore. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 29 minutes ago, WVclimo said: I picked up 3.0” of snow on only 0.14” liquid. Painful cutoff in that one as areas 15-20 miles to my south had 6-8”. I lived in Front Royal back then. Measured 6" of powder. Temps in the teens. That was a really nice storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 11 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Would love your thoughts on this... why the disconnect between the H5 track here and the models depiction of the heavy snow? I don't know. I think part of it is the negative tilt to the trough and the fact there is southern stream out ahead of the stronger digging trough and that southern vort outraces it and hlps pull the surface low farther east that it would go based on the vorthern stream system. That's only a guess. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I lived in Front Royal back then. Measured 6" of powder. Temps in the teens. That was a really nice storm. That was a great one. Was in southeast Baltimore. Remember it starting to flurry right after daybreak, cold smoke and 6.5” by the end of it. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY, the start of 63” in 12 days for me. 1/30: 6.5” 2/2-3: 5.2” 2/5-6: 31.5” 2/9-10: 20.5” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 Nam gonna be south with the energy out west kicking in faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jvash Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 Fun storm. Snowed all day with temps in the mid teens.That storm was my first year teaching. The days I got off for that storm May be the only reason I’m still teaching….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 WB 12K NAM looks good to me. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 Looks like Nam was gonna give us the goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 12K NAM looks good to me. Less confluence up north this run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 Lol NAM just refuses to budge on the amped version of this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 I'll take this composite radar. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 Just now, peribonca said: Less confluence up north this run.... Now THIS is believable. I feel like confluence always tends to weaken closer to game time. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 The trajectory of that WAA band would save the storm here in the event the coastal doesn’t deliver this far back. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Lol NAM just refuses to budge on the amped version of this storm. Yea until it gets to 36 hours out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 Just now, WVclimo said: The trajectory of that WAA band would save the storm here in the event the coastal doesn’t deliver this far back. Yes, ENE trajectory, a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 If your expectations are in check, WB 12K NAM looks great. And it is not done yet... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 12z NAM gives us another path to victory: TPV lobe hooks backwards into the dakotas allowing the ss s/w to pivot around it and come norther as the lobe re-deepens over Chicago as the slp reaches the coast. Look at 500mb vort, play the loop from hr 57 to 78, and you'll see what I mean 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 Nam said to the globals, “Let me show you how it’s done.” 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 Just now, Terpeast said: 12z NAM gives us another path to victory: TPV lobe hooks backwards into the dakotas allowing the ss s/w to pivot around it and come norther as the lobe re-deepens over Chicago as the slp reaches the coast. We’re back baby! Are we who knows but that idea sounds great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 Nam gonna be south with the energy out west kicking in fasterLess confluence though. Looked pretty good at the surface when it stopped running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 The 12z NAM was excellent - a good start to the 12z suite. Hopefully the globals can take a hint. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 Icon up next, its been fairly consistent 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: 12z NAM gives us another path to victory: TPV lobe hooks backwards into the dakotas allowing the ss s/w to pivot around it and come norther as the lobe re-deepens over Chicago as the slp reaches the coast. Look at 500mb vort, play the loop from hr 57 to 78, and you'll see what I mean That what I said earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: We’re back baby! Are we who knows but that idea sounds great Another path to victory. When we get this storm out of the way. We can see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: That what I said earlier this morning. Yeah, it’s not so much a full phase that we were needing for a HECS, but its more like sending a spaceship around a planet where its gravitational pull tugs it closer to the track we want. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: If your expectations are in check, WB 12K NAM looks great. And it is not done yet... That was gonna be a 6-10” run pre-coastal. Definitely a win. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Another path to victory. When we get this storm out of the way. We can see. I have to wonder at hour 90 if it would have slid straight ene…doesn’t matter it’s cold and snow. I’m not picky how we get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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