September 2024

[MANDA]

35 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Someday I want to check  it out.  LOL.  Got to be boring maybe one restaurant/bar?

I agree.  I'd like to check it out for the day.

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

If the last 12 years are a predictor, you're absolutely right that the smart money is on one spirit-crushing muggy upper 50s/low 60s day sometime between 12/16 and 12/25.

Yeah and mosquitos return while I’m putting up Christmas lights.  

[Allsnow]

Great rain for the grass today 

[weathermedic]

Only .22 in the bucket at my station so far.

[MJO812]

36 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Only .22 in the bucket at my station so far.

Nasty day

[IrishRob17]

Glad to see that rain drying up for the most part before getting up here. Nobody wants that crap on the weekend. Too bad we can't push some of these clouds outta here as well. 0.00 through the tipper. 

[gravitylover]

First rain of the day so far. I have a steady, soaking drizzle falling. 

[Allsnow]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Just got a few breaks of sun here as the high pressure over New England is slowing the progress of the moisture coming north. 
 

 

Rain moving into your area now 

[MJO812]

Euro has a gulf storm and then comes up the coast. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro has a gulf storm and then comes up the coast. 

Gfs too 

[doncat]

0.50" for the day.

[the_other_guy]

3 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

If the last 12 years are a predictor, you're absolutely right that the smart money is on one spirit-crushing muggy upper 50s/low 60s day sometime between 12/16 and 12/25.

Muggy hahaha Yes!

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Great rain for the grass today 

It’s almost October. Who cares? Not worth a saturday.

 

And no, we didnt need the rain. Plenty of rain thus far and a few dry weeks doesnt make a drought or a crisis

[WX-PA]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

No road even in summer wow

You can get up to Dead Horse using the Daulton from Fairbanks..But Barrow it has to be a plane,,no roads out of the tolwn. Talk about being trapped lol..no escape from 40 below.

[steve392]

Been chilly with a steady mist all day.  Temp says 64 but feels way colder. 

[lee59]

.17 so far

[Dark Star]

Great forecast by the NWS.  They nailed it.  I never heard of a closed low forming so close to a Hurricane.  As though the energy split off?  What happened to conservation of energy?

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Euro has a gulf storm and then comes up the coast. 

I buy it. 

[winterwx21]

0.52" here. 

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

It’s almost October. Who cares? Not worth a saturday.

 

And no, we didnt need the rain. Plenty of rain thus far and a few dry weeks doesnt make a drought or a crisis

Some people have vegetable gardens you know. 

[Allsnow]

.51 

 

Great job by the models 

[Stormlover74]

Gfs into big bend again next weekend. Thankfully a much weaker storm 

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs into big bend again next weekend. Thankfully a much weaker storm 

And much needed rain up here

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I buy it. 

Same

Favorable MJO and negative NAO. Hopefully we aren't wasting the negative NAO.

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

And much needed rain up here

Yep

 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Rain moving into your area now 

Just enough light rain to wet the ground at only .01 as we are closer to the high today than your area.

[SI Mailman]

.78 inches

[steve392]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Some people have vegetable gardens you know. 

Or large flower beds/gardens. 

[IrishRob17]

.09 with light rain falling. Terrible for all the agritainment businesses, both apple picking during the day and haunted hayrides in the evening. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with temperatures reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s. A shower is possible. A similar temperature regime will start the work week, but it could turn somewhat milder late in the week.

So far, the highest storm total rainfall from Helene in North Carolina is 36.54" at Jonas Ridge. If validated, that would be a new state record.

In the Southwest and parts of California, near record and record heat continued. Today saw the heat peak. Phoenix topped out at 117°, which toppled the all-time September monthly record and matched the existing August mark. The previous latest-season 117° temperature occurred on August 28, 2023. The extreme heat will persist into at least the middle of next week.

Continuing long-range guidance suggests that October could wind up warmer than normal across much of the U.S. The western U.S. could be particularly warm relative to normal. Widespread October warmth occurred during the last case where the AO fell to -2.000 or below while the PNA rose to +1.000 or above with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly in late September (2010), as was the case this year.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the September run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +4.99 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.384 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.0° (0.2° below normal).