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Tomorrow will be another pleasant day with abundant sunshine and fairly low humidity. Afterward, it will turn warmer. Overall, the month looks to be warmer to much warmer than normal.

In parts of California, Nevada, and Arizona, a severe long-duration heatwave will develop this week. The heat could spread into the Pacific Northwest this weekend with the temperature soaring into the upper 90s to perhaps 100° in Portland. Fresno and Redding could approach or reach their records for most consecutive 110° days. So far, such severe heat appears unlikely in the East during at least the first third of July.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.4°C for the week centered around June 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The SOI was +16.19 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.519 today.

 

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4 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

We haven’t even been in a dry spell across the whole area. We had a very wet spring in most of the area and the little bit of dryness has largely been wiped out this past week. 

I dried out for like 5 days :huh: It was nice.

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 102 (1966)
NYC: 100 (1966)
LGA: 101 (1966) 
JFK:  101 (1966)


Lows:

EWR: 56 (2001)
NYC: 56 (2001)
LGA: 58 (2001)
JFK: 56 (2001)


Historical:

 

 

1833 - An unusually large New England tornado, one half to three quarters of a mile wide, went from Salem Pond to Norton Pond, VT, and then into Canada. It prostrated nearly everything in its path. (The Weather Channel)

1833: The following is from the "History and Description of New England" published in 1860: "On the 2nd of July, 1833, this town (Holland, Vermont) was visited by a violent tornado, which commenced on Salem Pond in Salem, and passed over this place in a northeasterly direction. It was from half to three-quarters of a mile wide and prostrated and scattered nearly all the trees, fences, and buildings in its course. It crossed the outlet of Norton Pond and passed into Canada, and its path could be traced through the forests nearly to Connecticut River."

1843 - An alligator reportedly fell from the sky onto Anson Street in Charleston, SC, during a thunderstorm. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Thunderstorms in Colorado produced hail as large as golf balls northwest of Kiowa, which accumulated to a depth of twelve inches. Hail two and a half inches in diameter was reported at Black Forest. Hail damaged 900 acres of crops south of the town of Wiggins. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Twenty-six cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. The morning low of 47 degrees at Roanoke, VA, broke the July record set the previous day. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the south central U.S., with 158 reports of large hail and damaging winds through the day. Evening thunderstorms in northeastern Texas produced softball size hail which caused more than five million dollars damage at Allen, and wind gusts to 90 mph at Dallas, which injured eight persons and caused seven million dollars damage. Winnfield LA reported 29.52 inches of rain in six days, for a total of 62.50 inches for the first six months of the year. Midland, TX, reported an all-time record high of 112 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2001: In Michigan, frost and freezing temperatures were observed in some locations with Grant dropping to 29 degrees. Muskegon reported their coldest July temperature on record with 39 degrees. Other daily record lows included: Lansing: 38, Muskegon: 39, Flint: 40, Youngstown, Ohio: 40, and Grand Rapids, Michigan: 43 degrees.

 

 

 

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31 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Highs:
 

NYC: 86
PHL: 86
New Brnswck: 85  
PHL: 85
EWR: 85
TEB: 84
LGA: 83
ACY: 83
ISP: 82
JFK: 82
BLM: 81 

I hope forky was discreet if he visited the Central Park ASOS today. As always …..

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Looks like a Florida pattern has we head into the extended July 4th weekend. PWATS over 2.00” and 75°+dew points. So as soon as we reach convective temperatures each day the thunderstorms will pop up. 


IMG_0301.thumb.png.1480a66e15ebf00bd61d81b4ae92b1ff.png

IMG_0300.thumb.png.7a26c70c9b3cb52827b54b2b49d66d8b.png


 

 

IMG_0303.thumb.png.934e430ff5afdc37560775e0e6484993.png

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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like a Florida pattern has we head into the extended July 4th weekend. PWATS over 2.00” and 75°+dew points. So as soon as we reach convective temperatures each day the thunderstorms will pop up. 


IMG_0301.thumb.png.1480a66e15ebf00bd61d81b4ae92b1ff.png

IMG_0300.thumb.png.7a26c70c9b3cb52827b54b2b49d66d8b.png


 

 

IMG_0303.thumb.png.934e430ff5afdc37560775e0e6484993.png

Yes! Warm muggies with rain in the afternoon. Love this type of pattern 

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Yes! Warm muggies with rain in the afternoon. Love this type of pattern 

That ridge over the Atlantic may approach a new record this time of year around 600 dam. If it was right in top of us it would mean more 100° heat. But there is enough of a trough to our west for clouds and convection give us a break from 100° heat. But the very high dew points could give us 100° heat indices instead. 
 

IMG_0304.png.73ef448588b11fa982749353bccb6d4f.png
IMG_0305.thumb.png.eae611d10bfc6623276ac59b6eb840eb.png

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76 /  63 partly cloudy.  Warmer regime moving in with higher humidity creeping up.  Mid / upper 80s in the warmer spots ad the ridge expands northeast.  Overall warm / hot and humid with rain storms chances the next 7 - 10 days with a ridge into the SW - trough into the MW / and the Western Atlantic Ridge nosing higher heights along the east coast with a humid tropical flow. 

 

7/3 - 7/11 : Warm-hot (at times) humid and rain / storm chances
7/12 and beyond : western / rockies ridge ejects pieces of stonger heat east.

 

vis_nj_anim.gif

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18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That ridge over the Atlantic may approach a new record this time of year around 600 dam. If it was right in top of us it would mean more 100° heat. But there is enough of a trough to our west for clouds and convection give us a break from 100° heat. But the very high dew points could give us 100° heat indices instead. 
 

IMG_0304.png.73ef448588b11fa982749353bccb6d4f.png
IMG_0305.thumb.png.eae611d10bfc6623276ac59b6eb840eb.png

 

Nudge that west and the focus of the rain would favor PA/HV  also a cut off low meandering offshore a few days.

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Another great day with temps in the 80s and very dry with dew points in the 50s. I wish this perfect weather could continue tomorrow for the 4th (my favorite holiday), but it doesn't look too bad. I see 12z runs of NAM 3km and HRRR have pretty much nothing for our area through fireworks time, and RGEM has only isolated activity. Looks like a good chance that we'll be ok for cookouts and fireworks, but will keep an eye on radar just in case. I hope everyone here has a great holiday! 

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12 hours ago, lee59 said:

Maybe they did some pruning at Central Park or there was a ground stoppage at Newark.

Many times it falls in line just fine with the rest of the area.  But when other stations hit 90 and they are 89, people freak

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16 hours ago, rclab said:

I hope forky was discreet if he visited the Central Park ASOS today. As always …..

 

15 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

An alligator?  More like aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaalligator.

 

15 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

typical slight risk day

Will …. Please keep your pet on a tight leash, specifically if we ever go to any of the highest risk levels. As always ……

IMG_0435.png

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2 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Another great day with temps in the 80s and very dry with dew points in the 50s. I wish this perfect weather could continue tomorrow for the 4th (my favorite holiday), but it doesn't look too bad. I see 12z runs of NAM 3km and HRRR have pretty much nothing for our area through fireworks time, and RGEM has only isolated activity. Looks like a good chance that we'll be ok for cookouts and fireworks, but will keep an eye on radar just in case. I hope everyone here has a great holiday! 

The euro ruins firework times tomorrow 

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