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11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

IMG_3778.png

WAR driven pattern with trough through MW funnels HHH conditions right up to us.

It's not 100 degree weather but it is consistent upper 80s into 90s and high dews throughout. Along with that comes numerous thunderstorm chances.

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2 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

WAR driven pattern with trough through MW funnels HHH conditions right up to us.

It's not 100 degree weather but it is consistent upper 80s into 90s and high dews throughout. Along with that comes numerous thunderstorm chances.

*for everywhere other than Long Island 

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

3knam with some impressive totals. Hrrr still has barely anything thru Saturday 

qpf_acc-imp.us_ne (58).png

And this 3km NAM run is already wrong. It had some heavy storms in NJ at this time, but there's absolutely nothing. I'm glad it's going well for cookouts. Will have to see if we have some activity later on for fireworks time. Probably will be some, but I think HRRR is going to be much closer to reality than the wildly overdone 3km NAM. 

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5 hours ago, psv88 said:

Where? Full sun on the island 

Unlucky in the Hudson valley. Sun came out briefly but was deeply overcast. Now at a renegades ball game versus the Brooklyn cyclones so happy it is cloudy. 

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1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

And this 3km NAM run is already wrong. It had some heavy storms in NJ at this time, but there's absolutely nothing. I'm glad it's going well for cookouts. Will have to see if we have some activity later on for fireworks time. Probably will be some, but I think HRRR is going to be much closer to reality than the wildly overdone 3km NAM. 

Radar looks pretty good though (in this case bad)

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15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Radar looks pretty good though (in this case bad)

Brief downpour here currently, latest NWS discussion believes the eastern Pa stuff survives as it moves east. Hrrr was discounted 

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22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Radar looks pretty good though (in this case bad)

Yeah looks like some storms are coming. I'm glad we got through our cookout without a problem. That downpour that popped up and is hitting our friend Allsnow missed me to the south. The storms getting ready to hit western NJ appear to be on track to hit our area close to fireworks time unfortunately. NAM 3km was overdone but HRRR was underdone. 

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1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah looks like some storms are coming. I'm glad we got through our cookout without a problem. That downpour that popped up and is hitting our friend Allsnow missed me to the south. The storms getting ready to hit western NJ appear to be on track to hit our area close to fireworks time unfortunately. NAM 3km was overdone but HRRR was underdone. 

Fireworks here were last night. Plainfield's are tomorrow but I'm sure most are tonight

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3 hours ago, psv88 said:

*for everywhere other than Long Island 

Hopefully we can get some kind of organized system to bring the storms east of the Hudson. Otherwise yeah this is the typical wet inland/LI flash drought pattern. 

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1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Fireworks here were last night. Plainfield's are tomorrow but I'm sure most are tonight

I was planning on lighting off my own fireworks here tonight, but will cancel it and try again tomorrow night instead if these storms in eastern PA appear to be getting too close. Not looking good. A lot of people lighting off stuff now even though it's not dark. I did do some during the afternoon. 

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5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. HRRR fail 

That model has become a disaster. Sad because HRRR is supposed to be a highly skilled short range model that we can count on. Hopefully it can be replaced with something better eventually. 

At least the different model runs that showed some pop ups during the afternoon were wrong. That's one thing HRRR got right at least. It was completely quiet for all of NJ until that little downpour that hit your area popped up a little before 8pm. It went very well for cookouts, but unfortunately not looking good for fireworks tonight. Sucks because we had absolutely perfect weather the last 3 days. Terrible timing. 

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8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

That model has become a disaster. Sad because HRRR is supposed to be a highly skilled short range model that we can count on. Hopefully it can be replaced with something better eventually. 

At least the different model runs that showed some pop ups during the afternoon were wrong. That's one thing HRRR got right at least. It was completely quiet for all of NJ until that little downpour that hit your area popped up a little before 8pm. It went very well for cookouts, but unfortunately not looking good for fireworks tonight. Sucks because we had absolutely perfect weather the last 3 days. Terrible timing. 

Agreed. Edison moving their fireworks up to 845 to miss the rain now 

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