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Comfortable start to July with lows in the 40s for the interior Northeast. So we get a break from the major 95°+ heat and very high dew points for a few days. 
 

IMG_0271.thumb.gif.cc46c5fe84e2d2f29d031de9f0f07004.gif
 

 

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71/ 56 and sunny.  Great stretch of weather the next 72 hours, low to mid 80s, mostly sunny / partly cloudy and low humidity.   Ridge builds back in by Wed - warming up.   Fourth looks mainly dry and scattered storms later - think its more isolated/ Could be cloudy, otherwise  near/ low 90s.   Ridging along the east coast keeps a more warm-hot / humid flow from Fri (7/5) into the coming extended weekend and next week - When its not cloudy, it heats up quickly, but chances for rain .  18 - >20C  by Fri and the weekend would make 90s easy with sunshine  Later next week more humid southerly flow keeps it overall warm but continued storms chances.

 

7/1 - 7/3 : Dry and gorgeous stretch
7/4 - 7/8 :  Hot, Humid - storms chances - when sunny heats up quick (potential heatwave)
7/0 - beyond : Overall warm - humid and rain chances - tropics could enhance mid month

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Next decent chance of storms? Friday night?

Yeah that's the way it looks. Hopefully we can get anything significant to hold off until Friday night into Saturday so that we can have a couple mostly dry days for cookouts and fireworks. Models still not showing much for the 4th ... just isolated activity and it's possible it could hold off until night or stay to the south and west. Hopefully it won't get any worse as we get closer. 

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9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah that's the way it looks. Hopefully we can get anything significant to hold off until Friday night into Saturday so that we can have a couple mostly dry days for cookouts and fireworks. Models still not showing much for the 4th ... just isolated activity and it's possible it could hold off until night or stay to the south and west. Hopefully it won't get any worse as we get closer. 

Yeah I see the gfs holds off until Saturday 

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With the convection in the forecast for next weekend, we will keep the measurable rain on weekend theme going. Only 1 weekend since the beginning of March without at least a trace of rain. Many spots had more rain than Newark did yesterday. 
 

Newark 

Jun 29-30….0.39

Jun 22-23…..0.04

Jun 15-16……0.0

Jun 8-9……….T

Jun 1-2……….T

May 25-25…..T

May 18-19…..0.04

May 11-12…0.38

May 4-5…..0.31

Apr 27-28…0.11

Apr 20-21…0.05

Apr 13-14…0.04

Apr 6-7…….T

Mar 30-31…0.01

Mar 23-24….3.10

Mar 16-17…..T

Mar 9-10….1.46

Mar 2-3…..1.31

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Tomorrow and Wednesday will be pleasant days with abundant sunshine, low humidity, and a refreshing breeze. Afterward, it will turn warmer. Overall, the month looks to be warmer to much warmer than normal.

In parts of California, Nevada, and Arizona, a severe long-duration heatwave will develop this week. The heat could spread into the Pacific Northwest this weekend with the temperature soaring into the upper 90s to perhaps 100° in Portland. Fresno and Redding could approach or reach their records for most consecutive 110° days. So far, such severe heat appears unlikely in the East during at least the first third of July.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around June 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The SOI was +19.57 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.320 today.

 

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<<< July daily records for NYC >>>

 

The system used for noting the two day rainfalls is similar to that used previously for two day snowfalls. They end on the date listed, * means that only the

record rainfall for the date is involved in the two-day maximum, and ** means that the two-day max comes from the previous date's record rainfall.

Temps in brackets with record low mins are non-record maxima associated, to give a more complete picture of type of day setting low minima. 

Some daily records with multiple ties are shown in full detail by notes below main text. 

 

DATE ____ High max ___ High min _____ Low max ____ Low min __________Max prec (r) _ Max 2d rain _ notes

Jul 01 ___100 1901 ____ 79 2018 _______ 70 1869,71,88 _52 1943 (74) ______2.17 1933 ___ 3.71 1984

Jul 02 ___100 1901,66 _ 82 1901 _______ 67 1891 _____ 56 1888, 2011 ____1.79 1914 ___ 2.41 1914

Jul 03 ___103 1966 ____ 82 2002 _______64 1870,1914 __ 54 1933 (65) ______2.80 1930 ___ 2.80 1930*

Jul 04 ___102 1949 ____ 81 2002 _______ 62 1978 _____55 1986 (77) ______ 1.76 1981 ___ 3.19 1967 (2.08+1.11) 2.91" 2d 1978

Jul 05 ___101 1999 ____ 82 1999 _______ 62 1882 _____53 1979 (69) ______ 3.07 1901 ___ 3.07 1901*

Jul 06 ___103 2010 ____ 83 1999 _______ 61 1956 _____54 1979 (78) ______ 1.97 1896 ___ 4.33 1901

Jul 07 ___100 2010 ____ 84 1908 _______ 71 1914,43,87 _56 1914 __________ 3.13 1984 ___ 3.14 1984

Jul 08 ___100 1993 ____ 80 1993 _______ 66 2005 _____ 56 1894 (67) ______ 2.27 2021 ___ 3.13 1984**

Jul 09 ___106 1936 ____ 80 1981^_______63 1964 _____ 54 1963 (78) ______ 2.06 2021 ___ 4.33 2021

Jul 10 ___102 1936,93__80 1993 _______ 65 1917 _____ 55 1890 (70) ______ 2.54 2020 ___ 2.33 2021__(2.32 1997)

Jul 11 ___ 98 1988 ____ 79 1988 _______ 64 1914 _____ 57 1893, 98 _______ 1.94 1940 ___ 3.30 2020 __ 2.72" 2d 1874 (1.94+0.78)

Jul 12 ___ 99 1966 ____ 79 1905 _______ 67 1990 _____ 57 1926 ___________ 2.68 1937 ___ 3.09 1937

Jul 13 ___101 1966 ____ 79 1876 _______ 67 1964 _____54 1888 (70)  _____ 3.16 1972 ___ 3.16 1972* __ 2.83" 2d 1897 (0.54+2.29)

Jul 14 ___100 1954 ____ 78 1952 _______ 73 2017^____ 58 1877,88,1926 __ 1.47 1908 ___ 3.16 1972**

Jul 15 ___102 1995 ____ 84 1995 _______ 67 1926 _____57 1930 (78) 14th __ 1.80 1975 ___ 1.98 1975 tied 1.98 2000 (0.59+1.39)

Jul 16 ___ 99 1980 ____ 80 1952 _______ 70 1933 _____ 56 1926, 46 _______ 1.50 1871 ___ 2.16 1926 (0.78+1.38)

Jul 17 ___100 1953 ____ 82 1870 _______ 72 1992 _____57 1892 (76) ______ 3.13 1995 ___ 3.16 1995 __ 2.91 1877

Jul 18 ___101 1953 ____ 81 1900,2013 __66 1962 _____57 1925 (77) ______ 1.81 2022 ___ 3.36 1995

Jul 19 ___102 1977 ____ 83 2013 _______ 69 2000 _____57 1924 (77) 18th __ 1.82 1919 ___ 2.67 1919

Jul 20 ___101 1980 ____ 82 2015,19 ____ 69 1869 _____55 1890 (70) ______ 1.97 1889 ___ 2.77 1919 __ 2.22 1988 (0.94+1.28)

Jul 21 ___104 1977 ____ 82 1980 _______ 66 1956 _____55 1890 (73) ______ 2.26 1983 ___ 2.99 1988 (1.28+1.71)

Jul 22 ___104 2011 ____ 84 2011 _______ 69 1958 _____58 1871, 90 _______ 1.86 1880 ___ 2.50 1896 (1.06+1.44)

Jul 23 ___100 2011 ____ 83 2011 _______ 70 1996^_____58 1871,90 ________ 2.41 1953 ___ 2.99 1946 __ 2.70 1938 (0.30+2.40)

Jul 24 ___ 97 1999,2010 _80 2010 _______ 67 1904 _____56 1893 (74) ______ 3.75 1997 ___ 3.75 1997 __ 2.73 1938 (2.40+0.33)

Jul 25 ___ 97 1999 ____ 80 1885 _______ 68 2013 _____57 1953 (79) ______ 1.64 1926 ___ 4.62 1997 __ 2.49 1975 (1.06+1.43)

Jul 26 ___ 98 1940 ____ 79 1979 _______ 69 1901,2000_55 1920 (75) ______ 3.24 2000 ___ 3.24 1997*__ 2.91 1872 (1d)

Jul 27 ___ 98 1940,63__78 1995 _______ 68 1897,2000_55 1920 (79) ______2.65 1889 ___ 4.37 2000 

Jul 28 ___ 97 1999^____ 80 2020 _______68 1897 _____ 57 1903 (72 27th) _ 3.11 1913 ___ 3.11 1913*__ 3.06 1902 (1d)

Jul 29 ___ 99 1949 ____ 79 1995, 2002 _ 69 1884 _____59 1914 (69 28th) _ 3.47 1980 ___ 3.47 1980* __ 3.14 1913 2d

Jul 30 ___ 98 1988^____80 2002 _____ 68 1881,1914 __ 57 1956 (75) ______3.56 1960 ___ 3.64 1971 (0.64+3.00)

Jul 31 ___102 1933 ____ 82 1917 _______65 1923 _____ 57 1895, 1914 _____2.29 1889 ___ 3.56 1960**_ 3.13" 1971 2d ^

-- - - - - - - - - - --

^ min with the 1936 all-time record high max was 77. 1937 had 79 same date.

^ low max tied July 14 in 1884, 1960, 1963, 2017

note 18th: 2022 replaced 2012 (1.72")

^ low max tied July 23 in 1894, 1909, 1969, 1992, 1996.

^ max for July 28 tied 1892, 1931, 1949, 1999.

^ max for July 30 tied 1917, 1933, 1940, 1988.

^ 2d rainfall July 30-31 3.00" 1918 (2.00+1.00)

__________________________________________________________________

 

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Records:

Highs:

EWR:  100 (1963)
NYC: 100 (1901)
LGA:  97 (2018)
JFK: 102 (1963)


Lows:

EWR: 52 (1943)
NYC:  52 (1943)
LGA: 56 (1988)
JFK: 56 (1988)


Historical: 


 

1792 - A tremendous storm (a tornado or hurricane) hit Philadelphia and New York City. Many young people were drowned while out boating on that Sunday. (David Ludlum)

1911 - The high of just 79 degrees at Phoenix AZ was their coolest daily maximum of record for the month of July. The normal daily high for July 1st is 105 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1979 - It snowed almost half a foot (5.8 inches) at Stampede Pass WA, a July record. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Lake Charles LA was drenched with a month's worth of rain during the early morning. More than five inches of rain soaked the city, including 2.68 inches in one hour. A thunderstorm in the southern Yakima Valley of Washington State produced high winds which downed trees up to six feet in diameter. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Twenty-six cities in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Lows of 48 degrees at Providence RI, 48 degrees at Roanoke VA, 49 degrees at Stratford CT, and 48 degrees at Wilmington, DE, were records for the month of July. Boston MA equalled their record for July with a low of 50 degrees. Five inches of snow whitened Mount Washington NH. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms associated with the low pressure system which was once Tropical Storm Allison continued to drench parts of Mississippi, Louisiana and eastern Texas. Late night thunderstorms produced 12.58 inches of rain at Biloxi, MS, in six hours, and 10.73 inches at Gulfport MS. Flooding in Mississippi over the first six days of the month caused 55 million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2002: San Antonio, Texas recorded 9.52 inches of rain on this day to set a new record for its greatest rainfall for the entire month of July.

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Much wetter pattern starting to show up now that the models have a cutoff low to our west in early July. Interesting how most times in recent years following 100° heat it has turned wet. So not much chance in the immediate future of seeing a repeat of the 100° heat in late June. The high dew points and active convection pattern should be the big story. 
 

IMG_0275.thumb.png.0811a20e9cfed8cea77c5b3dc06e6b46.png
IMG_0276.thumb.png.0d57ae3d866ac76d9eff10299af34bc4.png

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47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Much wetter pattern starting to show up now that the models have a cutoff low to our west in early July. Interesting how most times in recent years following 100° heat it has turned wet. So not much chance in the immediate future of seeing a repeat of the 100° heat in late June. The high dew points and active convection pattern should be the big story. 
 

IMG_0275.thumb.png.0811a20e9cfed8cea77c5b3dc06e6b46.png
IMG_0276.thumb.png.0d57ae3d866ac76d9eff10299af34bc4.png

Yes!!!!

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12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yes!!!!

It reminds me of what monsoonal climates often experience. They have their warmest summer temperatures early followed by the heavier rains. 2021 was an example of this here. Newark made it to 103° in June which was followed by the heavier rains for the rest of the summer into September. It will be interesting to see if 100° stands as the warmest or Newark make makes amither run later on. These are the June to September monthly maximum temperatures for Newark and the rainfall.

 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
2024 100 M M M 100
2023 91 96 91 97 97
2022 96 102 101 93 102
2021 103 97 99 91 103
2020 93 96 94 89 96


 

Monthly Total Precipitation for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
2024 1.75 0.00 M M 1.75
2023 2.66 6.26 4.27 8.31 21.50
2022 2.40 0.55 1.92 3.73 8.60
2021 4.36 8.91 7.19 10.50 30.96
2020 2.89 11.22 3.19 4.06 21.36

 

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74 / 54 sunny and another gem on tap.   Low - Mid 80s, warmer spits to the upper 80s.   A bit warmer tomorrow s ridge builds in mid / upper 80s, perhaps a stray 90 in the warmer spots.  $th of July mainly dry but some scattered storms later in the evening.  Ridge west, trough into the MW, and Western Atlantic Ridge keeping heights elevated along the East coast with a humid southerly/SW flow.  Overall warm - hot with chances for storms and increased rainfall.  Cut off low under the Atlantics ridge meander offshore.  Hotter day Sun (7/7). Clouds will limit heat when storms fire but chances of near/low 90s in the period.

 

7/1 - 7/3 : Dry, warm near normal
7/4 - 7/11: Warm - hot, humid - storms almost daily
7/12 - beyond : Overall warm, could see piece of western heat eject east

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Much wetter pattern starting to show up now that the models have a cutoff low to our west in early July. Interesting how most times in recent years following 100° heat it has turned wet. So not much chance in the immediate future of seeing a repeat of the 100° heat in late June. The high dew points and active convection pattern should be the big story. 
 

IMG_0275.thumb.png.0811a20e9cfed8cea77c5b3dc06e6b46.png
IMG_0276.thumb.png.0d57ae3d866ac76d9eff10299af34bc4.png

That ridge - trof - ridge positioning would be interesting (if that pattern persists) as we head into August and September as far as tropical threats for the east coast.  Just speculation so we'll see how it goes.

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