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11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The euro ruins firework times tomorrow 

Yeah and GFS doesn't have good timing too. Some other models look better though, so who knows. At least we're not looking at widespread activity, so I wouldn't cancel any plans. Hopefully it will be ok for most of the area. Usually I root for storms, but of course the 4th is a rare day in which I don't want them. 

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It will turn somewhat warmer and more humid starting tomorrow. Through the weekend, a shower or thundershower is possible on each day, although the greatest risk for widespread thunderstorm activity exists for Saturday into Sunday. Overall, the month looks to be warmer to much warmer than normal.

In parts of California, Nevada, and Arizona, a severe long-duration and dangerous heatwave is now getting underway. The heat could spread into the Pacific Northwest this weekend with the temperature soaring into the lower 100s in Portland. Fresno and Redding could approach or reach their records for most consecutive 110° days. Reno reach or exceed its record for most consecutive 105° days. So far, such severe heat appears unlikely in the East during at least the first half of July.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.4°C for the week centered around June 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The SOI was +12.68 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.080 today.

 

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Records:


Highs:

EWR: 105 (1966)
NYC: 103 (1966)
LGA: 107 (1966)
JFK: 104 (1966)



Lows:

EWR: 57 (1953)
NYC: 54 (19r53)
LGA: 57 (1969)
JFK: 56 (2001)

Historical: 

1873: A tornado in Hancock County, in far west central Illinois, destroyed several farms. From a distance, witnesses initially thought the tornado was smoke from a fire. A child was killed after being carried 500 yards; 10 other people were injured.

1966 - The northeastern U.S. was in the midst of a sweltering heat wave. The temperature at Philadelphia reached 104 degrees. Afternoon highs of 102 degrees at Hartford CT, 105 degrees at Allentown PA, and 107 degrees at LaGuardia Airport in New York City established all-time records for those two locations. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1975: Up to 3 inches of rain caused flash flooding throughout Las Vegas, NV. The main damage occurred to vehicles at Caesars Palace with approximately 700 damaged or destroyed with several cars found miles away. North Las Vegas was hardest hit with $3.5 million in damage. Two people drowned in the flood waters.

1987 - Lightning struck and killed three men playing golf on a course near Kingsport TN. The three men had sought shelter from the rain under a tall tree on a small hill. Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain in New Jersey, with 5.2 inches reported at Trenton State College. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms around Fort Worth, TX, produced wind gusts to 76 mph at Burleson, along with two inches of rain in thirty minutes. The record low of 46 degrees at Youngstown OH was their sixth in a row. (The National Weather Summary)(Storm Data)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain in the eastern U.S. Bowling Green, KY, was soaked with 4.99 inches of rain during the morning hours, and up to ten inches of rain deluged Oconee County SC. The temperature at Alamosa, CO, soared to a record warm reading of 91 degrees, following a record low of 35 degrees the previous day. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

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Every time you post something about how hot the summer of 1966 was it clues me in to why my mom ended up having so much disdain for me at the end of her time here. She was 7-9 months pregnant, living in a 5th floor apartment with no AC and a questionable elevator. I was doomed :lol:

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2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Every time you post something about how hot the summer of 1966 was it clues me in to why my mom ended up having so much disdain for me at the end of her time here. She was 7-9 months pregnant, living in a 5th floor apartment with no AC and a questionable elevator. I was doomed :lol:

Had our first son in early September in Tampa, FL.  After that, like Scarlett O'hara, I swore "as God is my witness, I'll never go through the last 3 months of pregnancy in a sauna again!"  Our other children were born in late March and the beginning of June (by deliberate design LOL).

Sounds like your mother had some issues though, I doubt it was weather related.  Mine had a full blown case of narcissitic personality disorder.  I loved her, but sadly after she passed I felt a level of peace and safety that I had never experienced before.  My mother in law was the mother that I never had.  She's been gone for years now, but I still miss her terribly.  My condolences on your loss.

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77 / 67 and partly cloudy.  Hazy, hot, humid, upper 80s to low 90s where the most sun stays/comes out.  Scattered storms are stubborn to popup later this evening and pm, but should be scattered north and west.  Overall think 85% of the area is rain free and get to enjoy the day.   The Western Atlantic Ridge is ballooning and  nosing in from the east, keeping the EC warm.   Overall, warm - hot and humid on a S/SW flow with rain chances and heatwave potential through next weekend or mid month.   Heat in the west ejects east with stronger heat potential in the second half of the month.

 

Happy Fourth

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif 

 

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This month first 3 days opening very similar to near identical to the 2015 season with a -1 to -3 departure.  The seasons looks to  divert  bit  as we move into this warmer/humid period.  That year had  very hot second half.

 

 

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Today looks like the beginning of our dominant July pattern next few weeks as high dew points and PWATS result in convection chances most days. Big WAR to our east and trough over the Midwest. So the daily focus for convection once the convective temperatures are met should be near the area. 
 

IMG_0310.thumb.png.e7c80c1afae37fd303f9dee9079844ef.png

IMG_0311.thumb.png.8a2dccfe2f3d321de82ac3d4771f99f4.png

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12z HRRR has almost nothing for today and tonight, while 3km NAM has heavy activity tonight but keeps it to the north of this area until after fireworks time. Who knows, but hopefully cookouts and fireworks will be ok for most of the tri-state. Happy July 4th! 

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18 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

12z HRRR has almost nothing for today and tonight, while 3km NAM has heavy activity tonight but keeps it to the north of this area until after fireworks time. Who knows, but hopefully cookouts and fireworks will be ok for most of the tri-state. Happy July 4th! 

Both nams are nasty for tonight and tomorrow night...4"+ bullseye north and west. Probably overdone. Euro has very little

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Both nams are nasty for tonight and tomorrow night...4"+ bullseye north and west. Probably overdone. Euro has very little

Would be nice if the HRRR is right about nothing happening today and tonight, but of course that's a wildly inconsistent model. Hard to trust it. NAMs much worse for tonight as you said. RGEM has a few pop ups during the afternoon but is quiet by fireworks time. Every model showing something different as you'd expect. Overall I don't think it's looking too bad. Just have to keep an eye on radar. 

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5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

This month first 3 days opening very similar to near identical to the 2015 season with a -1 to -3 departure.  The seasons looks to  divert  bit  as we move into this warmer/humid period.  That year had  very hot second half.

 

 

I think you meant 2016..2015 had a raging nino at this time..it wouldn't be a analog.

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