April 2024

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

April 1st pal

Yea I realized it afterwards lol.  It's hard to tell with how dreary it is right now, mid March was way better than this.

 

[crossbowftw3]

Meanwhile…

 

some areas jumped from 0/2% to 15% hatched in the span of one update. 

[Will - Rutgers]

i’m going to miss ohio

[Brian5671]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

If New York is truly going to be as clear as what I just saw in the forecasts (unlikely, it's still 10 days out), then this will be where a lot of people will be coming.

The forecast I just saw for Syracuse (the closest big town to New York City for totality) is 0% high clouds, 0% midlevel clouds and 1% low clouds at 2 PM, about an hour and a half before totality.

https://spotwx.com/products/grib_index.php?model=gfs_pgrb2_0p25_f&lat=43.04795&lon=-76.14745&tz=America/New_York&label=Syracuse, New York

7 days not 10, it's next Mon 4/8

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow through Thursday will see additional rainfall with highs in the 40s. A general 1"-3" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely through Thursday.

Coastal flooding at times of high tide is likely. Central and upstate New York and central and northern New England could see accumulating snow, especially in higher elevations and away from the coastline.

After a cool first week of April, it will likely turn noticeably warmer during the second week.

It is very likely that New York City's Central Park will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around March 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.27°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was -10.53 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.192 today.

[Nibor]

Shelf cloud.

[etudiant]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

If New York is truly going to be as clear as what I just saw in the forecasts (unlikely, it's still 10 days out), then this will be where a lot of people will be coming.

The forecast I just saw for Syracuse (the closest big town to New York City for totality) is 0% high clouds, 0% midlevel clouds and 1% low clouds at 2 PM, about an hour and a half before totality.

https://spotwx.com/products/grib_index.php?model=gfs_pgrb2_0p25_f&lat=43.04795&lon=-76.14745&tz=America/New_York&label=Syracuse, New York

My limited experience would suggest choosing Buffalo or Rochester over Syracuse. I always found the worst weather when driving from Toronto to New York was centered around Syracuse. There was a cartoon character,  Joe Btfsplk, who always had a black cloud over him. I concluded he was a Syracuse resident.

[rclab]

26 minutes ago, etudiant said:

My limited experience would suggest choosing Buffalo or Rochester over Syracuse. I always found the worst weather when driving from Toronto to New York was centered around Syracuse. There was a cartoon character,  Joe Btfsplk, who always had a black cloud over him. I concluded he was a Syracuse resident.

Thank you for bringing back a memory of Lil Abner on the front page of the long ago NYC Sunday Daily Mirror. Stay well, as always …

 

[Roger Smith]

 

__ <<<< APRIL DAILY RECORDS for NYC >>>> __

notes: 2d precip records, almost all rain, are listed for days on which they conclude. An asterisk (as for Apr 8, 1940) indicates that the 2d record is only one precip event on that date. A double asterisk ** (e.g. Apr 11, 1983) indicates the record amount all fell on the previous day and no additional rain or snow fell on that day. The basic point of including 2d records is that it tends to identify all discrete rainfall events including those occurring overnight.

Also, numbers in brackets after record low minima are that day's maximum, if close to a record low max, but not actually a low max, which would be listed in the adjacent column. As with second such notation (36 max for record low 22F Apr 2, 1919) these near-record values are sometimes on a previous day (in this case April 1, 1919).

Extreme values for April are in bold type. (e.g. 12F on April 1, 1923 is lowest for any date in April).

 

DATE ____ High max___ High min _____ Low max ___ Low min ________ Max prec (r) _ Max 2d rain _ Max snow

Apr 01 ___ 83 1917 ___ 61 2016 _______ 34 1874 ____12 1923 (36) _____1.89 1993 ___ 2.32 1997 ___ 8.5 1924

Apr 02 ___ 81 1967 ___ 61 1967 _______ 35 1911 ____22 1919 (36 1st) __1.93 1970 ___1.96 1970 ____ 5.5 2018

Apr 03 ___ 81 1981 ___ 59 1892, 2015 __34 1896 ____24 1954 (43) ____1.90 1983___2.42 2024^____10.0 1915 (10.2 3rd-4th)

Apr 04 ___ 80 1892 ___ 62 1892 ______ 32 1879 _____20 1874 ________ 1.99 1987 ___2.48 1987 ____ 2.5 1957 _ also 2.37"2d 1876

Apr 05 ___ 80 1928 ___ 60 1892 ______ 30 1881 _____20 1874 (38) ___ 2.76 1984 ___4.37 1984 ____ 6.5 1944

Apr 06 ___ 80 2023^___58 2010 ______ 31 1881 _____21 1982 (41) ____ 2.52 1886 ___2.81 1886 ____ 9.6 1982 _ non-rec 3.3",3.1" S 1938 6-7.

Apr 07 ___ 92 2010 ___ 63 1991 ______ 30 1982 _____21 1982 ________ 1.35 1899 ___2.58 1886 ____ 4.0 2003 _ also 2.50"2d 1958

Apr 08 ___ 90 1991 ___ 66 1991 _______37 1917,56,2003_25 1982________1.93 1940 ___1.93 1940*___ 4.2 1956 (1.8" S 1916, 3.3" 8th-9th)

Apr 09 ___ 86 1991 ___ 68 1991 _______39 1885,1982,2003 _25 1977 (44) __ 3.42 1980 ___3.42 1980*___ 6.4 1917 (6.5S 8th-9th) _2.1"S 1942

Apr 10 ___ 86 1922 ___ 55 1871, 2013 _ 37 1942 _____28 1974,85,97 _____ 4.31 1983 ___4.32 1983 ____ 0.5 1882 _ also 2.72" 2d r 1906

Apr 11 ___ 84 1955 ___ 61 2017 ______ 38 1882,1918 _24 1909 (39 10th)__1.10 1913 ___4.31 1983**___ 0.4 1918

Apr 12 ___ 90 1977 ___ 64 2023^______ 35 1874, 1918 _22 1874 ________ 2.12 1933 ___2.13 1933 ____ 2.0 1918 (2.4S 2d) 1.3"S 1940

Apr 13 ___ 90 2023^___ 67 2023^______ 35 1875, 1940 _22 1874 _______ 1.92 2020 ___2.12 1933**___ 8.7 1875

Apr 14 ___ 91 2023^___ 70 2023^______ 41 1940, 48 __26 1950 (44 13th) _2.72 1909 ___2.76 1909 ___ 1.9 1950, 1.3 1875 (10.0 2d)

Apr 15 ___ 87 1941 ___ 67 1941 _______ 41 1885, 1943 _28 1943 _______ 7.57 2007 ___7.57 2007 ____ 0.5 1892 (1.0 2d S) 

Apr 16 ___ 92 2002 ___ 69 2002 ______39 1872 _____29 1928 ________3.29 1983 ___8.47 2007 ____ Trace 2014^_ also 2.82"R 2018

Apr 17 ___ 96 2002 ___ 74 2002 ______33 1875 _____27 1875 ________1.59 1873 ___3.29 1983**___ Trace 1935^

Apr 18 ___ 96 1976 ___ 76 2002 ______32 1875 _____25 1875 ________2.19 1924 ___2.19 1924*____ 3.0 1887

Apr 19 ___ 92 1976 ___ 68 1976 _______40 1875 _____22 1875 ________ 1.96 1978 ___2.23 1924 ____ 0.8 1983

Apr 20 ___ 90 1927 ___ 67 1976 ______ 37 1904 _____24 1897 ________ 1.96 1893 ___1.99 1978____Trace 1925,53 _ also 1.96" 2dR 1874

Apr 21 ___ 87 1923 ___ 60 1923 ______ 40 1940 _____26 1875 ________ 2.28 1991 ___2.78 1901 ___Trace 1928,47

Apr 22 ___86 1962,73,2001_62 2016 ____40 1873 _____28 1875 ________ 2.45 2012 ___2.67 2012 ___Trace 1929,72

Apr 23 ___ 86 2007 ___ 60 1926 ______40 1883 _____29 1872 ________ 2.34 2006 ___3.57 2006 ___Trace 1906,30,63,86

Apr 24 ___ 87 2001 ___ 63 2008 ______44 1883, 1930 _31 1930 ________ 2.17 1968 ___2.57 2006 ___ 0.5 1883

Apr 25 ___ 91 1915 ___ 58 1979, 82____43 1919 _____29 1919 _________ 1.68 1945 ___2.20 1968 ___ 3.0 1875

Apr 26 ___ 92 2009 ___ 67 2009 _____ 42 1874 _____31 1919 __________ 1.88 1889 ___2.58 1889 ___Trace 1919_ also 2.54" 2dR 1910

Apr 27 ___ 92 1915 ___ 61 1949, 2011__ 45 1946 ____36 1932 (48) ____ 2.04 2007 ___3.42 1889 ___Trace 1932,67

Apr 28 ___ 90 1990,2009_ 69 1990, 2009__41 1898 _____31 1874 (44) ____ 2.74 1980 ___3.07 1980 ___Trace 1874,1931

Apr 29 ___ 89 1974 ___ 64 2017 _______ 38 1874 _____32 1874 _________ 2.46 2023^___2.85 1980 __ 0.5 1874 _ also 2.54" 2dR 1958

Apr 30 ___ 91 1942 ____ 63 1903 _______45 1925 _____32 1874 _________ 4.97 2014 ___5.00 2014^ __ 0.0 (no traces)

-- - - - - - - - - - - - --

^ notes above 

3rd _ Record 2d rain 2.42" 2024 broke record of 2.01" 1917. (April 2-3). 

6th _ Record high max 2023 (80F) replaces 79F from 1912, 1917 and 1947

12th _ Record high min 2023 (64F) replaces 58F (1947, 2017)

13th _ Record high max 2023 (90F) replaces 88F (1977) and min (67F) replaces 61F (1945)

14th _ Record high max 2023 (91F) replaces 85F (1941) and min (70F) replaces 60F (2019)

16th _ Trace snowfalls in 1875, 1905, 1935, 1939, 1943, and 2014

17th _ Trace snowfalls in 1875, 1905, 1928 and 1935.

29th _ Previous record 0.91" (1909)

28th-29th _ 2.79" total rain 2023 just below 1980 maximum amount of 2.85"

29th-30th _ 4.78" two-day rainfall in 2023 after 2.32" fell on 30th (2014 retains both records for 30th).

__________________________________________________________________________

 

[psv88]

Thank god we are missing out on New England’s sleet storm. Nobody wants that in April 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Thank god we are missing out on New England’s sleet storm. Nobody wants that in April 

Along I-90 to Boston I'd definitely keep an eye on it still. ORH area anyway away from the coast and elevated could definitely still be majorly impacted. Our wet windy misery might just be a couple degrees colder if Boston ends up getting slammed. 

[MJO812]

We should move NYC to upstate. 

[MJO812]

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

We should move NYC to upstate. 

Take a day or two off and drive up there.  Might be half decent around Hunter Mountain. Besides that nature is what it is. 

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Take a day or two off and drive up there.  Might be half decent around Hunter Mountain. Besides that nature is what it is. 

The eclipse is a better reason to go there.

I think the SE Ridge also influences the path of totality.

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Many times these big cutoffs are followed up by another cutoff or area of low pressure around a week to 10 days out. So the magnitude of the warm up next week will probably be dependent on it. Models already trying to show another cutoff with plenty of disagreement on the details. Euro has a better warm up than the CMC and GFS. But this storm is so deep that it may influence the pattern going forward. If you look at our patterns in recent years, the only way we have avoided record heat has been through extreme rainfall, clouds, and onshore flow.
 

But does it also mean clear weather for the eclipse? That seems to be a near certainty now, with only a 1% chance of clouds?

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

 

__ <<<< APRIL DAILY RECORDS for NYC >>>> __

notes: 2d precip records, almost all rain, are listed for days on which they conclude. An asterisk (as for Apr 8, 1940) indicates that the 2d record is only one precip event on that date. A double asterisk ** (e.g. Apr 11, 1983) indicates the record amount all fell on the previous day and no additional rain or snow fell on that day. The basic point of including 2d records is that it tends to identify all discrete rainfall events including those occurring overnight.

Also, numbers in brackets after record low minima are that day's maximum, if close to a record low max, but not actually a low max, which would be listed in the adjacent column. As with second such notation (36 max for record low 22F Apr 2, 1919) these near-record values are sometimes on a previous day (in this case April 1, 1919).

Extreme values for April are in bold type. (e.g. 12F on April 1, 1923 is lowest for any date in April).

 

DATE ____ High max ___ High min _____ Low max ____ Low min _________ Max prec (r) _ Max 2d rain _ Max snow

Apr 01 ___ 83 1917 ____ 61 2016 _______ 34 1874 _____12 1923 (36) _____ 1.89 1993 ___ 2.32 1997 ____ 8.5 1924

Apr 02 ___ 81 1967 ____ 61 1967 _______ 35 1911 _____22 1919 (36 1st) __ 1.93 1970 ___1.96 1970 ____ 5.5 2018

Apr 03 ___ 81 1981 ____ 59 1892, 2015 _ 34 1896 _____24 1954 (43) _____1.90 1983 ___2.01 1917 ____10.0 1915 (10.2 3rd-4th)

Apr 04 ___ 80 1892 ____ 62 1892 _______ 32 1879 _____20 1874 _________ 1.99 1987 ___2.48 1987 ____ 2.5 1957 _ also 2.37"2d 1876

Apr 05 ___ 80 1928 ____ 60 1892 _______ 30 1881 _____20 1874 (38) ____ 2.76 1984 ___4.37 1984 ____ 6.5 1944

Apr 06 ___ 80 2023^____58 2010 _______ 31 1881 _____21 1982 (41) _____ 2.52 1886 ___2.81 1886 ____ 9.6 1982 _ non-rec 3.3",3.1" S 1938 6-7.

Apr 07 ___ 92 2010 ____ 63 1991 _______ 30 1982 _____21 1982 _________ 1.35 1899 ___2.58 1886 ____ 4.0 2003 _ also 2.50"2d 1958

Apr 08 ___ 90 1991 ____ 66 1991 _______37 1917,56,2003_25 1982__________1.93 1940 ___1.93 1940*___ 4.2 1956 (1.8" S 1916, 3.3" 8th-9th)

Apr 09 ___ 86 1991 ____ 68 1991 _______39 1885,1982,2003 _25 1977 (44) ___ 3.42 1980 ___3.42 1980*____ 6.4 1917 (6.5S 8th-9th) _2.1"S 1942

Apr 10 ___ 86 1922 ____ 55 1871, 2013 _ 37 1942 _____28 1974,85,97 ____ 4.31 1983 ___4.32 1983 ____ 0.5 1882 _ also 2.72" 2d r 1906

Apr 11 ___ 84 1955 ____ 61 2017 _______ 38 1882,1918 _24 1909 (39 10th) __ 1.10 1913 ___4.31 1983**___ 0.4 1918

Apr 12 ___ 90 1977 ____ 64 2023^_______ 35 1874, 1918 _22 1874 ___________ 2.12 1933 ___2.13 1933 ____ 2.0 1918 (2.4S 2d) 1.3"S 1940

Apr 13 ___ 90 2023^____ 67 2023^_______ 35 1875, 1940 _22 1874 ________ 1.92 2020 ___2.12 1933**___ 8.7 1875

Apr 14 ___ 91 2023^____ 70 2023^_______ 41 1940, 48 __26 1950 (44 13th) _2.72 1909 ___2.76 1909 ____ 1.9 1950, 1.3 1875 (10.0 2d)

Apr 15 ___ 87 1941 ____ 67 1941 _______ 41 1885, 1943 _28 1943 _________ 7.57 2007 ___7.57 2007 ____ 0.5 1892 (1.0 2d S) 

Apr 16 ___ 92 2002 ____ 69 2002 _______ 39 1872 _____29 1928 ________ 3.29 1983 ___8.47 2007 ____ Trace 2014^_ also 2.82"R 2018

Apr 17 ___ 96 2002 ____ 74 2002 _______ 33 1875 _____27 1875 ________ 1.59 1873 ___3.29 1983**___Trace 1935^

Apr 18 ___ 96 1976 ____ 76 2002 _______ 32 1875 _____25 1875 ________ 2.19 1924 ___2.19 1924*____ 3.0 1887

Apr 19 ___ 92 1976 ____ 68 1976 _______ 40 1875 _____22 1875 _________ 1.96 1978 ___2.23 1924 ____  0.8 1983

Apr 20 ___ 90 1927 ____ 67 1976 _______ 37 1904 _____24 1897 _________ 1.96 1893 ___1.99 1978____Trace 1925,53 _ also 1.96" 2dR 1874

Apr 21 ___ 87 1923 ____ 60 1923 _______ 40 1940 _____26 1875 _________ 2.28 1991 ___2.78 1901 ____Trace 1928,47

Apr 22 ___86 1962,73,2001_62 2016 ______40 1873 _____28 1875 _________ 2.45 2012 ___2.67 2012 ____Trace 1929,72

Apr 23 ___ 86 2007 ____ 60 1926 _______40 1883 _____29 1872 _________ 2.34 2006 ___3.57 2006 ____Trace 1906,30,63,86

Apr 24 ___ 87 2001 ____ 63 2008 _______44 1883, 1930 _31 1930 _________ 2.17 1968 ___2.57 2006 ____ 0.5 1883

Apr 25 ___ 91 1915 ____ 58 1979, 82 ____43 1919 _____29 1919 __________ 1.68 1945 ___2.20 1968 ____ 3.0 1875

Apr 26 ___ 92 2009 ____ 67 2009 ______ 42 1874 _____31 1919 __________ 1.88 1889 ___2.58 1889 ____Trace 1919_ also 2.54" 2dR 1910

Apr 27 ___ 92 1915 ____ 61 1949, 2011__ 45 1946 _____36 1932 (48) _____ 2.04 2007 ___3.42 1889 ____Trace 1932,67

Apr 28 ___ 90 1990,2009_ 69 1990, 2009__41 1898 _____31 1874 (44) _____ 2.74 1980 ___3.07 1980 ____Trace 1874,1931

Apr 29 ___ 89 1974 ____ 64 2017 _______ 38 1874 _____32 1874 __________ 2.46 2023^___2.85 1980 ____ 0.5 1874 _ also 2.54" 2dR 1958

Apr 30 ___ 91 1942 ____ 63 1903 _______ 45 1925 _____32 1874 __________ 4.97 2014 ___5.00 2014^ ___ 0.0 (no traces)

-- - - - - - - - - - - - --

^ notes above hm

6th _ Record high max 2023 (80F) replaces 79F from 1912, 1917 and 1947

12th _ Record high min 2023 (64F) replaces 58F (1947, 2017)

13th _ Record high max 2023 (90F) replaces 88F (1977) and min (67F) replaces 61F (1945)

14th _ Record high max 2023 (91F) replaces 85F (1941) and min (70F) replaces 60F (2019)

16th _ Trace snowfalls in 1875, 1905, 1935, 1939, 1943, and 2014

17th _ Trace snowfalls in 1875, 1905, 1928 and 1935.

29th _ Previous record 0.91" (1909)

28th-29th _ 2.79" total rain 2023 just below 1980 maximum amount of 2.85"

29th-30th _ 4.78" two-day rainfall in 2023 after 2.32" fell on 30th (2014 retains both records for 30th).

__________________________________________________________________________

 

JFK's latest snowstorm was April 19-20, 1983

 

[ILoveWinter]

40 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But does it also mean clear weather for the eclipse? That seems to be a near certainty now, with only a 1% chance of clouds?

 

I think western NY does have higher probs of "unexpected" cloudiness vs here but def looks good right now!

[MJO812]

Moderate rain here

The beat goes on

[snowman19]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Moderate rain here

The beat goes on

So much for the April, 1982 hype on “X” last week….

[MJO812]

Just now, snowman19 said:

So much for the April, 1982 hype on “X” last week….

For what ?

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

For what ?

Some were saying this week’s pattern looked like April of ‘82. Obviously a horrible match

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Some were saying this week’s pattern looked like April of ‘82. Obviously a horrible match

About 1997

[snowman19]

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

About 1997

A further north version

[bluewave]

While we already knew this, it’s good to see the figures. My guess this is related to the long range Euro inability to see the stronger MJO 4-7 influence. The lower skill shows the competing influences of these marine heatwaves made the stock El Niño forecast less likely compared to previous El Niños.

 

 

[MJO812]

If only the low can bomb out further south and east.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

If only the low can bomb out further south and east.

It won’t in any way that will matter here. Embrace the puddles. 

[JetsPens87]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

If only the low can bomb out further south and east.

Lol come on man even if it did...

[JetsPens87]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

If only the low can bomb out further south and east.

 

It's time to stop lol

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

 

It's time to stop lol

Stop what ? I said if the low was bombing further south and east.