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April 2024


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Unusually amplified start to April with one of the strongest west based blocks that we have seen in early April. Models indicating the potential for a +4 to +5 SD  500 mb block near Greenland. This is followed by a deep upper low and storm system crossing the Northeast approaching -4 SD. So more heavy rains and strong winds possible for our area with a late season higher elevation snow threat for portions of the Northeast. 
 

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Interesting to see next week whether this bowling ball storm happens for New England and how far south the bowling ball can get. There’ll likely be a ton of snow north of that closed upper low. For us I’m sure it just means tons more rain but maybe I-90 and north should keep an eye on it. This blocky NAO pattern which of course shows up right on time to nasty up the spring makes that more likely. 

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9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Interesting to see next week whether this bowling ball storm happens for New England and how far south the bowling ball can get. There’ll likely be a ton of snow north of that closed upper low. For us I’m sure it just means tons more rain but maybe I-90 and north should keep an eye on it. This blocky NAO pattern which of course shows up right on time to nasty up the spring makes that more likely. 

I  don’t think this block orientation would have worked in January. It looks to far south to me which links the ridge off The Atlantic. It also should be noted the pac is still a mess. While it’s enough to give us a awful start to April, I feel it would have been more of the same in January 
 

@bluewave thoughts? 

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25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I  don’t think this block orientation would have worked in January. It looks to far south to me which links the ridge off The Atlantic. It also should be noted the pac is still a mess. While it’s enough to give us a awful start to April, I feel it would have been more of the same in January 
 

@bluewave thoughts? 

Yeah, I think we still would have had P-Type issues near the coast even in January since the Southeast ridge is forecast to be very strong a day before the storm next week. This allows the primary to ride pretty far north before the coastal eventually takes over. So a continuation of these -NAOs and -AOs linking up with the WAR or Southeast ridge.

D33C976B-9106-4AC3-8353-B99FB502FC8D.thumb.png.bf35903ccf137c71add91016c44cbfd5.png

 

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I think we still would have had P-Type issues near the coast even in January since the Southeast ridge is forecast to be very strong a day before the storm next week. This allows the primary to ride pretty far north before the coastal eventually takes over. So a continuation of these -NAOs and -AOs linking up with the WAR or Southeast ridge.

D33C976B-9106-4AC3-8353-B99FB502FC8D.thumb.png.bf35903ccf137c71add91016c44cbfd5.png

 

the question is if the block is so strong, why dont we see snow all the way down here?

whats the difference between this and say, April 1996, 2003, 2018....

other than the obvious fact that the winters preceding them were much colder lol

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38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the question is if the block is so strong, why dont we see snow all the way down here?

whats the difference between this and say, April 1996, 2003, 2018....

other than the obvious fact that the winters preceding them were much colder lol

The block is so strong since we recently saw the big PV disruption. Then we got the tropics on board with the MJO 8-1 followed by the wave break. The reason the mountains are favored this time around is that it’s so much warmer than 1996,2003, and 2018. Plus the seasonal storm tracks those years were much more favorable for us. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I think we still would have had P-Type issues near the coast even in January since the Southeast ridge is forecast to be very strong a day before the storm next week. This allows the primary to ride pretty far north before the coastal eventually takes over. So a continuation of these -NAOs and -AOs linking up with the WAR or Southeast ridge.

D33C976B-9106-4AC3-8353-B99FB502FC8D.thumb.png.bf35903ccf137c71add91016c44cbfd5.png

 

That’s pretty close to the SE ridge just hooking up with the NAO block which would mean a mega cutter. 

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54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The block is so strong since we recently saw the big PV disruption. Then we got the tropics on board with the MJO 8-1 followed by the wave break. The reason the mountains are favored this time around is that it’s so much warmer than 1996,2003, and 2018. Plus the seasonal storm tracks those years were much more favorable for us. 

Thanks, I take it we can talk about the eclipse here too.

From the medium range forecasts I've seen, the further north you go the lower the chances of clouds now? So basically all those people who were saying go to Texas or Arkansas or Indiana or Ohio are going to be wrong because that's where the most chances of cloudiness is predicted to be as of now? And once you get to Buffalo or Syracuse or northeast from there, the chances of having sunshine that day are higher?  Down where we are, I'm still seeing "mostly cloudy" but at least it looks like it might be more clear in the path of totality in the northeast?

 

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, I take it we can talk about the eclipse here too.

From the medium range forecasts I've seen, the further north you go the lower the chances of clouds now? So basically all those people who were saying go to Texas or Arkansas or Indiana or Ohio are going to be wrong because that's where the most chances of cloudiness is predicted to be as of now? And once you get to Buffalo or Syracuse or northeast from there, the chances of having sunshine that day are higher?  Down where we are, I'm still seeing "mostly cloudy" but at least it looks like it might be more clear in the path of totality in the northeast?

 

You can really only go by climo at this point and that says the further SW you go the more likely there is to be sun. But it’s really anyone’s guess. I’ll be in FL for the eclipse so for me it’ll only be 50-60% partial but it would suck obviously to spend $1000+ on hotels/airfare etc and stuck in traffic for a cloudy day. :( Such a crapshoot. So I would stay in the Northeast just for that reason and go by car. I looked up flights to Austin for the hell of it and round trips are over $800 and hotels I’m sure are sold out. 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

You can really only go by climo at this point and that says the further SW you go the more likely there is to be sun. But it’s really anyone’s guess. I’ll be in FL for the eclipse so for me it’ll only be 50-60% partial but it would suck obviously to spend $1000+ on hotels/airfare etc and stuck in traffic for a cloudy day. :( Such a crapshoot. So I would stay in the Northeast just for that reason and go by car. I looked up flights to Austin for the hell of it and round trips are over $800 and hotels I’m sure are sold out. 

omg I guess if you want to avoid the traffic and the high costs of airfare, you could always travel by Amtrak.  But that has logistical issues also.

 

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4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

You can really only go by climo at this point and that says the further SW you go the more likely there is to be sun. But it’s really anyone’s guess. I’ll be in FL for the eclipse so for me it’ll only be 50-60% partial but it would suck obviously to spend $1000+ on hotels/airfare etc and stuck in traffic for a cloudy day. :( Such a crapshoot. So I would stay in the Northeast just for that reason and go by car. I looked up flights to Austin for the hell of it and round trips are over $800 and hotels I’m sure are sold out. 

We will have a pretty good idea of what's going to happen a few days before...can adjust accordingly if one wants to see it-worst case drive SW to St Louis lol

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The 12z GFS is still showing next weeks storm sitting and looping off the New England coast. Not saying its right but interesting to say the least. It also shows very windy conditions over the NYC metro region later next week, something to monitor as we get closer.

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7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

If the trend continues I would think extreme NNJ and SNY could possibly get a late season snowstorm 

Not impossible given extreme block and bowling ball system.

The crazy thing is temps, according to Euro would support snow even this far south if the bowling ball system trended south. 

Very chilly start to April here. Prob only low to mid 40s for highs 3-4 days.

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5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Not impossible given extreme block and bowling ball system.

The crazy thing is temps, according to Euro would support snow even this far south if the bowling ball system trended south. 

Very chilly start to April here. Prob only low to mid 40s for highs 3-4 days.

Unfortunately, the ridge ahead of the system will probably allow it to gain to much latitude for our area. 

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24 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Unfortunately, the ridge ahead of the system will probably allow it to gain to much latitude for our area. 

Yes agreed but I'm rooting on a big time event up north, not sure those guys want that to start April though. 

Would probably cause some serious damage 

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The 10-1 maps should be thrown out anywhere other than high elevations in a storm like this, we have the usual problems with cold air, primary hanging on too long, the trough might not be that deep etc. I mentioned yesterday that I-90 on north should keep an eye on it but south of there too much is probably working against it. The rain deluge of course will find a way to happen. 

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yes agreed but I'm rooting on a big time event up north, not sure those guys want that to start April though. 

Would probably cause some serious damage 

Whenever all the snow melts that they’re getting in NNE it’ll be a big flood threat in all the downstream rivers combined with all the rain we’ve had. Ground of course is totally saturated. 

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