December 2023

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

and yes, the Pacific isn’t amazing there, but it is not nearly as prohibitive as it was last year. it should also improve as the MJO progresses east

 

As long as the PNA is not like -1.5 or worse and or the EPO is not raging positive you can usually do okay with a lousy or so-so Pacific and a -AO/NAO

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Reality is not negative

Reality is, you cant tell us much beyond 5-7 days out. Neither can I. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

After seeing how hostile the Pacific has become since 18-19, the phase NAO and AO isn’t as important as it used to be. 20-21 was the only time the NAO and AO was able to coincide with a favorable Pacific. Last winter the Pacific completely muted a monthly -AO value in the -2.5 to -3.0 range which never happened before. So unless we have Pacific on our side, a -NAO and -AO will be going to waste. Hopefully we get get some semblance of a backloaded El Niño this winter with the Pacific backing off during another -AO -NAO interval. 

the Pacific just has to be serviceable. it was god awful the last two years, i don’t expect that this year

[Rmine1]

In other news, it’s raining. Earlier than forecast. 
 

Now back to the regularly scheduled program, “biased bickering”.

 

[binbisso]

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

In the absence of a pronounced and persistent SE ridge you won't see something 2015 like.  97 maybe, Dec 97 relative to 2015 and some other recent Decembers was not THAT warm.  Something more like a December 99/14/18 is more likely in this pattern.  One of the interesting things myself and a couple other Mets discussed in recent days is how the Op GFS/GEFS are doing the inverse of what they did last winter.  Last winter we so often saw the GEFS look sort of decent days 7-12 yet the Op runs were torches.  This last few days we see the reverse often, semi ugly GEFS runs but Op runs that have shown periodic colder shots and chances.  Last winter more often than not those Op runs verified closer to reality.  Its possible that in this regime we are in enough ensemble members are being fooled to skew the mean too far one direction.

I have noticed that too. It looks like we will have our chances thru mid month.  After that who knows. Climo is still against us  as we need at least - 5 or better departures for snow down to the coast in early December. Most likely We will  ave +1 or so thru Dec 15th with both colder and warmer periods. Plenty of S/W coming in from the pac just have to time one right.

[jm1220]

42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's a ghost town up there

From Syracuse to Watertown on I-81 it’s essentially nothing, and even Watertown we’d consider to be a pretty small town. Syracuse proper is a better bet-not the most snow but still tons (they average 140”) as far as any of us are concerned plus being in an actual city/small metro with cheap living cost. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

From Syracuse to Watertown on I-81 it’s essentially nothing, and even Watertown we’d consider to be a pretty small town. Syracuse proper is a better bet-not the most snow but still tons (they average 140”) as far as any of us are concerned plus being in an actual city/small metro with cheap living cost. 

I was also watching videos of Marquette, Michigan.  Alot of people and snow.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I was also watching videos of Marquette, Michigan.  Alot of people and snow.

Goes on too long there-snows into May-no thanks

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, lee59 said:

You make a good point but I wonder if the increase in precipitation could help mute the downfall in snow. The last 30 year period saw snowfall totals actually go up in NYC, not because of lower temperatures (temperatures actually went up) but the increase in precipitation. Eventually, of course, this will have less of an affect if temperatures keep rising.

Initially, the increase in precipitation should be beneficial. But eventually, seasonal snowfall will decline. Boston northward could still see some increase for the time being.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

Always love your analysis! I *think* we're underplaying the ability to capture and store carbon in the near future; remember, internal combustion engines were significantly improved in emissions and particle emissions by the catalytic converter. (If you're ever around classic cars or the Tomorrowland Speedway or two cycle leaf blowers/lawn mowers, you can immediately smell gas engines sans catalytic converters) 

I think we significantly underplay our ingenuity to form the planet, in both bad and good ways. 

Thank you for coming to my TED talk. 

Currently, the carbon capture technology is in its infancy. Costs are very high and efficiency is low. But I am hopeful that improvements will occur as has been the case with other technologies.

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Anthony should move to Oswego NY.  They had their worse snow year on record last year and still had 47 inches.

I have been on vacation up there a few times and the whole region along Lake Ontario is really nice country.   It actually reminds me of the north shore of Long Island in some ways but is more rural.  There are a ton of wineries up there.  Real estate values correspond to expected annual snowfall totals by community and region.  The area going east from Rochester towards Oswego has progressively higher snowfall totals relating to the mean flow off of the lake.  The area to the west of Rochester has less lake effect snow.  The area to the south of Buffalo (Southtowns) which is affected by the Lake Erie snow belts gets much more snow and real estate values are priced accordingly.  Very interesting climatology up there.

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Cmc Friday

 

Wrong MJO phase, will never happen   

[SACRUS]

45 mostly cloudy with showers. Looks grey and some what wet this weekend , overall warmer than normal through the fifth.  6 - 8 cools down before warmer again 12/9.

 

 

[BucksCO_PA]

Final NOV stats for the Mt. Holly FO climo sites, ideal radiating conditions for the majority of the month setup a healthy contrast between PHL & the surrounding sites. It took late month CAA days for the highly urbanized city locations to drop into the 20's. Meanwhile it was parade of 20's for the immediate suburbs & beyond.

[North and West]

Currently, the carbon capture technology is in its infancy. Costs are very high and efficiency is low. But I am hopeful that improvements will occur as has been the case with other technologies.

Exactly, but it *should* improve, as it works through more and more efficiencies in the coming years.

Think of how good electric cars are today versus how poor they were ten or twelve years ago… I mean, look at a 2010 Chevy Bolt versus a late model Tesla S that includes fast charging. The world is changing before our eyes.


.

[forkyfork]

4 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

Final NOV stats for the Mt. Holly FO climo sites, ideal radiating conditions for the majority of the month setup a healthy contrast between PHL & the surrounding sites. It took late month CAA days for the highly urbanized city locations to drop into the 20's. Meanwhile it was parade of 20's for the immediate suburbs & beyond.

for a true comparison you'd need to use standard deviation 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, WX-PA said:

Looking at the next few weeks it looks basically normal through mid month. I don't see this blowtorch that some are posting about. And this is no 2015 or 1997

More like +2 to +3 by mid month with a possible increase after that. And that is against the new warmer 91-20 climate normals. So NYC is on track for another December near or over 40° which used to be much less frequent in the old days. 
 

 

[North and West]

More like +2 to +3 by mid month with a possible increase after that. And that is against the new warmer 91-20 climate normals. So NYC is on track for another December near or over 40° which used to be much less frequent in the old days. 
 




 

.

[lee59]

2 hours ago, vegan_edible said:

unpopular opinion BUT as an upstate native, id take upstate over the nyc metro any day of the week. but if youre not in albs, cuse, rochester, of buffalo you got nothing to do but shovel 

Yes plenty of shoveling, they may even have to shovel the roof. 

[Dan76]

  LOL    

This Afternoon

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 11. Wind chill values between -15 and -22. Windy, with a west northwest wind 29 to 34 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 32 to 38 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to around 12 by 11pm. Wind chill values between -11 and -17. Windy, with a southwest wind 24 to 34 mph increasing to 39 to 49 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 44 to 50 inches possible.

Saturday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Steady temperature around 10. Wind chill values between -9 and -18. Windy, with a west wind 44 to 49 mph decreasing to 36 to 41 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 20 to 26 inches possible.

Saturday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 12. Wind chill values between -8 and 2. West southwest wind 17 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 17 to 23 inches possible.

Sunday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 21. Windy, with a southwest wind 20 to 30 mph increasing to 30 to 40 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 23 to 29 inches possible.

Sunday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible.

[MJO812]

Euro weeklies continue to look great near the holidays when the MJO goes into the favorable phases

[Will - Rutgers]

33 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

  LOL    

This Afternoon

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 11. Wind chill values between -15 and -22. Windy, with a west northwest wind 29 to 34 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 32 to 38 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to around 12 by 11pm. Wind chill values between -11 and -17. Windy, with a southwest wind 24 to 34 mph increasing to 39 to 49 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 44 to 50 inches possible.

Saturday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Steady temperature around 10. Wind chill values between -9 and -18. Windy, with a west wind 44 to 49 mph decreasing to 36 to 41 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 20 to 26 inches possible.

Saturday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 12. Wind chill values between -8 and 2. West southwest wind 17 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 17 to 23 inches possible.

Sunday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 21. Windy, with a southwest wind 20 to 30 mph increasing to 30 to 40 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 23 to 29 inches possible.

Sunday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible.

wow

how much for yonkers

[Snowlover11]

10 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

wow

how much for yonkers

none yonkers sucks use to live in yonkers, but still work in yonkers.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

Highs:

EWR: 72 (2006)
NYC: 70 (2006)
LGA: 71 (2006)

Lows:

EWR: 15 (1976)
NYC: 8 (1875)
LGA: 19 (1976)

Historical:

 

1831 - The coldest December of record in the northeastern U.S. commenced. Temperatures in New York City averaged 22 degrees, with just four days above freezing, and at Burlington VT the temperature never did get above freezing. The Erie Canal was closed the first day of December, and remained closed the entire month. (David Ludlum)

1896 - The temperature at Kipp, MT, rose 30 degrees in just seven minutes, and 80 degrees in a matter of a few hours. A thirty-inch snow cover was melted in half a day. (The Weather Channel)

1913 - A six day front range snowstorm began. It produced a record total of 46 inches at Denver CO. (David Ludlum)

1970: Four tornadoes impacted east-central Wisconsin during the morning hours. The strongest tornado, an F3, formed at 10:15 AM near Medina in Outagamie County.  The twister moved northeast at 50 mph and destroyed twenty barns and five houses.

1985 - A storm produced more than six inches of snow from the Northern and Central Plains to parts of Michigan, with 36.4 inches reported at Marquette MI. Many roads were blocked by snow. A family was stranded for 25 hours south of Colome SD. Drifts twelve feet high were reported in north central Nebraska. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A powerful storm hit the northwestern U.S. Winds gusted to 80 mph at Cape Disappointment WA, and reached 94 mph at Cape Blanco OR. Thunderstorms in western Washington State produced wind gusts to 60 mph, and dime size hail at Hoquiam. Stevens Pass, in the Cascade Mountains of Washington, received seven inches of snow during the morning hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Squalls in the Great Lakes Region produced up to a foot of snow in Ashtabula County OH, up to ten inches in Erie County PA, and up to a foot of snow in western New York State. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Heavy snow blanketed the mountains of New Mexico, with 12 inches reported at the Angel Fire Ski Basin. Strong northerly winds ushering cold air into the north central U.S. gusted to 55 mph at Devils Lake ND. Low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska produced wind gusts to 69 mph at Kodiak Island. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2002 - Heavy lake effect snow fell downwind of the U.S. Great Lakes. Buffalo, New York reported 16 inches of snow, with thundersnow reported late in the afternoon. While the eastern U.S. experienced much colder than normal temperatures on December 1, much of Alaska was basking in above average warmth. Many daily temperature records were set across this region through the beginning of the month.

 

2006: A winter storm produced more than 6 inches of snow along a 1,000-mile-long path from central Oklahoma to northern Michigan from November 30-December 1st. The storm also produced significant freezing rain, which impacted the St. Louis area. An estimated 500 or more homes and businesses were without power in the St. Louis area after this storm.

2007 - During December 1-3, a powerful storm with hurricane force winds struck the Northwest U.S. The storm brought heavy rain and wind gusts over 100 mph, with the highest reading being 129 mph at Bay City, OR. The strong winds brought power lines down, and the heavy rain caused widespread flooding and triggered landslides (BBC News). According to reports, 8 fatalities were attributed to the storm and about 37,000 homes and businesses were left without power in Washington, Oregon, and northern California. President Bush declared a federal disaster in several counties in Washington and Oregon to provide recovery assistance (Associated Press).

2011 - Wind speeds as high as 102 MPH were measured in Centerville, Utah and surrounding cities. Damage was reported throughout Weber and Davis counties ranging from South Ogden down to Bountiful. More than 400 trees were down at the Davis Golf course alone due to the winds. Up to 54,000 residences were without power throughout the day and into the evening. Train service between Layton and Salt Lake City was suspended due to damaged train stations, debris on the train tracks, and power outages. Cleanup costs totaled $8 million in Centerville alone. No injuries were reported from the wind, but a number of injuries were reported from those helping with the cleanup effort.

[vegan_edible]

43 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

none yonkers sucks use to live in yonkers, but still work in yonkers.

easy now mr. rockland county

[SACRUS]

More on that 1831

December 1831 From November to early January 1832 New York City had a very cold period. December’s mean temperature was 22 °F. This was 3 °F colder than the previous lowest average set in December 1790 and was their third coldest for any month.

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

More on that 1831

December 1831 From November to early January 1832 New York City had a very cold period. December’s mean temperature was 22 °F. This was 3 °F colder than the previous lowest average set in December 1790 and was their third coldest for any month.

We haven’t had a really cold December in NYC since 1989 which was the last time NYC averaged in the 20s .

[donsutherland1]

Showers could affect the region tonight into tomorrow. An additional round of showers could move into the region Sunday into Monday. Both days will be unseasonably mild. Overall, the first 10 days of December look to be on the mild side of normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.1°C for the week centered around November 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.80°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter.  

Should the ENSO Region 1+2 and 3.4 anomalies remain at or above +1.00°C in December, which is likely, and should the PDO remain negative, there is a single past case (1950-2022) with similar ENSO/PDO conditions: December 1972.

The SOI was +7.11 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.840 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January.

On November 29 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.781 (RMM). The November 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.457 (RMM).

 

[bluewave]

Have to head to Eurasia if you want to see any real cold this month.

 

 

[Allsnow]

That’s a mild/torch look going into mid month on the eps