Damage In Tolland Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 The month looks to start out furnaced the first 7-10 days. Then do we mild down to normal mid month? Looks like another very wettie month for all. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 The "furnace" likely doesn't last beyond D7... We'll see but there's pretty heavy ensemble support, cross guidance, for a strong -EPO relay into a +PNA...and a deepening L/W axis over Ohio already underway by October 6. May hold onto southerly deep layer flow along east of Appalachia into the 7th, but we set a +PNAP table pretty coherently in every guidance source by then. It's also believable for other reasons but the average reader's attention span in here stops right he - 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 29, 2023 Author Share Posted September 29, 2023 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: The "furnace" likely doesn't last beyond D7... We'll see but there's pretty heavy ensemble support, cross guidance, for a strong -EPO relay into a +PNA...and a deepening L/W axis over Ohio already underway by October 6. May hold onto southerly deep layer flow along east of Appalachia into the 7th, but we set a +PNAP table pretty coherently in every guidance source by then. It's also believable for other reasons but the average reader's attention span in here stops right he - Looks like another soaker next weekend and then maybe Columbus Day period 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 The month looks to start out furnaced the first 7-10 days. Then do we mild down to normal mid month? Looks like another very wettie month for all. 100 percent right on the furnace to start..I would say this is more than just “mild down” by the 9th as modeled. Don’t know if it lasts, but call it what it is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 First flakes? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 22 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: First flakes? Almost certainly in the higher elevations. Love it when the Greens and Whites have bright foliage on the lower slopes climbing up to snow-caked trees above. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2023 Author Share Posted September 30, 2023 Torch!!! is coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 11 hours ago, bwt3650 said: 100 percent right on the furnace to start..I would say this is more than just “mild down” by the 9th as modeled. Don’t know if it lasts, but call it what it is. . It's real ... but how amplified will be an interesting exercise for me. Often when models first detect aspects at the outer "temporal horizon" ( that range out in time when the noisy long range coalesces into an actual plausibility), they tend to magnify them. Ridges will be huge. Troughs will be made to look like wholesale pattern changes. But then, as the model runs and days click by ... the signal sneakily sheds, both in total tropospheric wave mechanics but also in the metrics they're bringing along ..etc. I used the metaphor in the past, the moon over the eastern horizon being the size of a celestial collision .. pure literary art. ha. Not every time, though. Toward the end of last January, the models brought a nasty cold insert into SE Canada and the NE U.S., some 8 days ahead. Looked like a candidate for "modeling moon rise". But if we looked at the D8.9.10 runs and compared them to what verified, that was an unusual case of early detection of extremeness that went on to occur. I recall a conversation ... 1.24 million years ago when I was still just a college lad. Ah yes, that stage of life where faking post adolescent precocious cynicism only covets a naivete that the world will be kind if you wait long enough ... It was still just the mid 1990s, but we contemplated how big events don't have continuity lapses post emergence through said 'horizon'. In other words, they are immutable; whatever went on around them along the river of time since they emerged, they were stones while the chaos flowed around them. Go back across your "Sandy" and "Super Storm, 1993" ... just pick one. The big ticket shows had a lot of leading promotional marketing from a long way off. Granted, in mid '90s the age of modeling was really still rather young. 20 years earlier in the 1970s, there was the LFM ... primitive in skill compared to these modern marvels that entitle to the extent of rolling model heads like the French Inquisition if they dare f-up a day 5 snow storm... Anyone born in 2000 and now coming into their 'age of Meteorological enlightenment' could really benefit by spending a winter season in a throwback forecast camp where they get abused both emotionally and physically as penance whenever they bust a forecast that was hand drawn isohypses from raw radio soundes just to determine where S/Ws are. You know? Humility is the pathway to a beautiful soul - which is a fantastic digression into why societal decay is driving humanity to a population correction ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Torch!!! is coming For the first several days of October... yes. But.. looking ahead to the following Sunday and Monday.. temps may not get above 60 for next Monday. Torch no More! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 First week of October looks like a furnace relative to climo. Looks seasonably cool after that though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 12.81” in July 3.99” in August 12.91” in September What will October bring? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2023 Author Share Posted September 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 12.81” in July 3.99” in August 12.91” in September What will October bring? Beer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 Looks like a warm first week and then pretty close to normal afterward. Might call it "Torchtober" if the whole month looked exceedingly AN, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Perhaps "Mildtober" would be better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Beer Beer to soothe the pain of seeing PF’s picnic tables covered in powder posts, brats for football tailgates, blankets for the first frosty nights, and bombing out coastals setting up the I-84 jackpot zone in winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2023 Author Share Posted September 30, 2023 Oct 1 almost and this is what the woods look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 My lawn is turning over-water yellow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 Deer ticks are coming back out in force to get their pre-winter blood meal. So we have that going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 For the records nerds ... what's the latest 90 F day at LGA, HFD and BOS ? I imagine it's later down in LGA than CON NH ... but that +18.5 C at 850 on Tuesday at 18z, with a west wind, with zip cloud deck RH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: For the records nerds ... what's the latest 90 F day at LGA, HFD and BOS ? I imagine it's later down in LGA than CON NH ... but that +18.5 C at 850 on Tuesday at 18z, with a west wind, with zip cloud deck RH For KBOS looks like 10/12/1954 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2023 Author Share Posted September 30, 2023 56 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: For the records nerds ... what's the latest 90 F day at LGA, HFD and BOS ? I imagine it's later down in LGA than CON NH ... but that +18.5 C at 850 on Tuesday at 18z, with a west wind, with zip cloud deck RH Watch out for smoke contamination . It ruined several 90+ days this summer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 Leaves have really popped here in the last 2 days. The swamp maple areas are already at peak and very vibrant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: For the records nerds ... what's the latest 90 F day at LGA, HFD and BOS ? I imagine it's later down in LGA than CON NH ... but that +18.5 C at 850 on Tuesday at 18z, with a west wind, with zip cloud deck RH BDL 90F 10/17/1908 LGA 92F 10/6/1941 CON 92F 10/16/1879 (90F 10/7/1963 if you exclude the yore) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 Foliage has been coming along. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 5 hours ago, dendrite said: BDL 90F 10/17/1908 LGA 92F 10/6/1941 CON 92F 10/16/1879 (90F 10/7/1963 if you exclude the yore) Lol….hmmm, one of those is 144 yrs ago, another is 115 yrs ago, and the other is 82 yrs ago. Gee, I guess it was warm in October 100 plus yrs ago too. What a Shocker! NOT! And Concord beats Laguardia both times, and one of them is by 10 days… so very interesting. Thanks for posting. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 Ninos often bring chilly Octobers. I’m guessing this will be no exception when we read the tale of the tape in a month. Sad to be missing the October torch this week-hot days in October tend to be fun and not uncomfortable. We return home Friday after 2.5 weeks away. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 October probably ends up AN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 What a year for mushrooms. My 81 year old aunt who is a vegetarian said she's never seen a better harvest.. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 13 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Lol….hmmm, one of those is 144 yrs ago, another is 115 yrs ago, and the other is 82 yrs ago. Gee, I guess it was warm in October 100 plus yrs ago too. What a Shocker! NOT! And Concord beats Laguardia both times, and one of them is by 10 days… so very interesting. Thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 14 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: For the records nerds ... what's the latest 90 F day at LGA, HFD and BOS ? I imagine it's later down in LGA than CON NH ... but that +18.5 C at 850 on Tuesday at 18z, with a west wind, with zip cloud deck RH At Central Park it's 10/17/1938. 1979 only missed by 2° on the 22nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 Holy smoke today. Jesus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now