Stormlover74 Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: RGEM has sharp northern cutoff But its an inch plus in spots where the nam had nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 beautiful crisp fall night, divine really 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 Gfs in the long range has another big rainstorm and very cool temps . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: beautiful crisp fall night, divine really Yep, not looking forward to another crappy weekend, whether we get 1” or 0.1” mist. Definitely enjoying the sun/low 70s while it’s here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 Readings will again generally reach the upper 60s across the region with warmer spots reaching or exceeding 70°. A moderate or significant rain and wind storm is likely next weekend. The storm will likely be followed by another round of unseasonably cool air. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around September 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. The SOI was -2.77 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.015 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.3° (0.4° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 Nam vs rgem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 10/11 EWR: 73 ACY: 73 BLM: 72 LGA: 71 New Brnswck: 71 PHL: 71 TEB: 71 JFK: 69 ISP: 69 TTN: 69 NYC: 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 Records: 10/11 Highs: EWR: 88 (1949) NYC: 85 (1949) LGA: 86 (1955) Lows: EWR: 36 (1979) NYC: 34 (1964) LGA: 36 (1964) Historical: 1846: A major hurricane, possibly a Category 5, moved through the Caribbean Sea. This Great Havana Hurricane struck western Cuba on 10 October. It hit the Florida Keys on 11 October, destroying the old Key West Lighthouse and Fort Zachary Taylor. 1906: Games 1 and 2 of all Chicago World Series were played amid snow flurries. Snow would not happen again in a World Series until 1997. The high temperature for game 3 played on this day was 43 degrees. 1925 - Widespread early season snows fell in the northeastern U.S., with as much as two feet in New Hampshire and Vermont. The heavy snow blocked roads and cancelled football games. (David Ludlum) 1954 - A deluge of 6.72 inches of rain in 48 hours flooded the Chicago River, causing ten million dollars damage in the Chicago area. (9th-11th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - More than thirty cities in the Upper Midwest reported record low temperatures for the date, including Waterloo IA and Scottsbluff NE where the mercury dipped to 16 degrees. Tropical Storm Floyd brought heavy rain to southern Florida, moisture from Hurricane Ramon produced heavy rain in southern California, and heavy snow blanketed the mountains of New York State and Vermont. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Low pressure brought gale force winds to the Great Lakes Region, with snow and sleet reported in some areas. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the north central U.S. The mercury hit 84 degrees at Cutbank MT and Worland WY. The temperature at Gunnison CO soared from a morning low of 12 degrees to a high of 66 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Much of the nation enjoyed "Indian Summer" type weather. Nine cities in the central U.S. reported record highs for the date as temperatures warmed into the 80s and 90s. Record highs included 90 degrees at Grand Island NE and 97 degrees at Waco TX. Strong winds along a cold front crossing the Northern High Plains Region gusted to 80 mph at Ames Monument WY during the early morning. (The National Weather Summary) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Nam vs rgem Don't ever trust the Nam. 06z bumped up north big time. It's going to rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 58degs.(52/63) or -1. Reached 70 yesterday at 3:30---5:00pm. Today: 69-72, wind nw., few clouds, 53 tomorrow AM. Total of 1"-2" of Rain over Sat., Sun., Mon., Tues. 55*(83%RH) here at 7am. 59* at 9am. 61* at 10am. 63* at Noon. 69* at 3pm. 70* at 4pm. Reached 71* at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Don't ever trust the Nam. 06z bumped up north big time. It's going to rain. Rgem went the other way 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Don't ever trust the Nam. 06z bumped up north big time. It's going to rain. NYC and south probably-but alot of drier air to the north-all the globals show a sharp cutoff now near or just north of NYC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: NYC and south probably-but alot of drier air to the north-all the globals show a sharp cutoff now near or just north of NYC Yep, lots of confluence. North of I-84 might be a nice weekend for once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 12, 2023 Author Share Posted October 12, 2023 As mentioned by others above -more or less 1/2" or so northern edge near to just north of I80 for Saturday. Maybe the early clue was the GGEM of several days ago, the only model showing way south of GEFS-EPS. Think it's now GGEM/RGEM best model the rest of the cool season barring a TS situation. Even the last FFWatch situation the Canadian models were down. Which brings me to Tuesday(17)-Wednesday(18)... might be something to watch for a strong coastal off NC-VA edging northeast or east-northeast. The GGEM from a few days ago was the only model showing this becoming a pretty sizable rain-wind event back to NJ-LI. Evolution of the Saturday (14th) short is not closing off, but its remnant and central North America feeder short waves may close this upper trough into a deep cyclonic low just east of VA. Am watching daily trends...still 5-6 days away so can't be sure, but that one to me is my own greater wind/rain interest for the NYC subforum, and then whatever can evolve next weekend. So this weekend, rain yes... but amounts 1+ seem to me to probably be mostly south of I78. Mesoscale excesses: This last failed FFW situation near NYC has me make a change in assessing. If I see those mesoscale models go ballistic (5+ in 24 hours), I want to make sure I have Global ensemble assurance of about 3+. I can always see bands of heavier than ensemble (and bands of less as well), but radically higher than the ensemble, I'm not so sure and I need to be conservative buying into the RRFS/HRRR/NAM excesses. Finally: while cool, it still hasn't dropped below 37F here in this part of Wantage NJ... seems to be a less than colorful leaf peeping season in this part of the world. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 Models keep bouncing around for total event QPF, but narrowing down on 1/2-1" from maybe 78 to 84 and 1-1.5" from 78 down through SNJ/SEPA. NWS calling for a general 1-2" in most locations, including NYC, so they're a bit more bullish on the rain. For me the issue is the RU game in Piscataway, with tailgating from maybe 7 am to noon, which looks mostly dry on most models, but then the steady rains look to move in sometime in the 12-2 pm timeframe on most models (kickoff is noon), so the timing is really critical for fans and there is definitely significant variability on QPF starting around noon, with some models (6Z NAM and RDPS) showing no rain through 2 pm and very little rain through 5 pm, even, while other models are showing 0.1-0.2" through 2 pm and maybe 1/4-1/2" total through 5 pm. The NWS has about 1/4" through 2 pm and almost an inch from 2 pm to 8 pm in their hourly graphic. For most people the difference between 0.1" and 0.3" of rain is inconsequential, but not for fans out in the open. Crossing fingers for the NAM/RDPS to be right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 Leaf peeping up in parts of Dutchess is terrible. We had such a bad plague of caterpillars in May/June that it ate the majority of the foliage on Oaks, Maple and Birch trees. The majority of the trees in my neighborhood are just turning brown and dropping, not much color here. I am hoping for a very harsh winter which would kill the larvae because this is the second year we have faced this but 23 is WAY worse than 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are averaging 58degs.(52/63) or -1. Reached 70 yesterday at 3:30---5:00pm. Today: 69-72, wind nw., few clouds, 53 tomorrow AM. Total of 1"-2" of Rain over Sat., Sun., Mon., Tues. 55*(83%RH) here at 7am. 59* at 9am. What is it month to date so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 11 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Nam vs rgem Prozac in an IV drip for winter ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 The ENSO thread this year has been incredibly interesting. Some members feeling pretty positive on this winter, a few more reserved. But some good indicators at least we will have chances for snow, though we probably see a mild Dec / start before things get cooking. I do recommend peeping over there, great discussion / debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 13 minutes ago, FPizz said: What is it month to date so far? Ewr is around +4.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 11 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: The ENSO thread this year has been incredibly interesting. Some members feeling pretty positive on this winter, a few more reserved. But some good indicators at least we will have chances for snow, though we probably see a mild Dec / start before things get cooking. I do recommend peeping over there, great discussion / debate. The -PDO tempers my optimism for us, it means even though we have a strong Nino it will try to act like a Nina at times, but hopefully we can at least approach normal snow. We probably go above average temps which isn’t saying much, but Decembers in most Nino years particularly strong one’s torch. If we get one or two big events, I’ll be more than happy to settle on that. Hell I’ll be thrilled with any over 6” event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The -PDO tempers my optimism for us, it means even though we have a strong Nino it will try to act like a Nina at times, but hopefully we can at least approach normal snow. We probably go above average temps which isn’t saying much, but Decembers in most Nino years particularly strong one’s torch. If we get one or two big events, I’ll be more than happy to settle on that. Hell I’ll be thrilled with any over 6” event. Exactly. Anything over 6” is a win. One thing is certain, we will see an active southern stream and resulting storminess, with the potential for multiple strong nor’easters. We just need to line up the cold. I’m feeling somewhat optimistic we at least see some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Exactly. Anything over 6” is a win. One thing is certain, we will see an active southern stream and resulting storminess, with the potential for multiple strong nor’easters. We just need to line up the cold. I’m feeling somewhat optimistic we at least see some snow. It’s good we’re seeing blocking but as we’re also seeing, it can be too much of a good thing. At least this upcoming storm is happening in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 Nam shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 Rgem. Most of this is late Saturday night and Sunday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 RGEM looks like a 2/5/10 GPF map LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 I am cool with this and will be encouraged if we see signs of blocking early on! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Eduardo said: I am cool with this and will be encouraged if we see signs of blocking early on! Watch us get an early season snowstorm and jinx the rest of the winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Watch us get an early season snowstorm and jinx the rest of the winter I would think we get a decent early season cold shot at some point in the next 2 weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 Another shit weekend after a nice week. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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