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October 2023


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Started thread because of my concern for a higher impact sub tropical storm off the mid-Atlantic coast combining with tides 1/2-3/4 foot higher than what we saw for Ophelia this weekend of Sept 23rd-24th.  Would compound damage from Ophelia, especially beach erosion with constancy of northeast wind from Sept 22 through probably October 3rd. 

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Got a few questions about this upcoming pattern. I'm digging this cooler weather now, but it looks we're heading into a +PNA for the first week of October, however it seems to keep getting pushed back. Who here can give me a good prospective temp outlook on how October will pan out. I'm dreaming of crisp high 50s and sunshine

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32 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

Got a few questions about this upcoming pattern. I'm digging this cooler weather now, but it looks we're heading into a +PNA for the first week of October, however it seems to keep getting pushed back. Who here can give me a good prospective temp outlook on how October will pan out. I'm dreaming of crisp high 50s and sunshine

Maybe something like this

 

Screenshot_20230926_135759_Chrome.jpg

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October is another rapidly warming month from the old days like September has been.

 

The monthly temperature increases from 81-10 to 91-20 have been more pronounced during certain months. Newark and Islip are compared below. The +1.0 or warmer months for either station were bolded. 

……….EWR…..ISP

Dec…+1.5….+1.5

Jan….+1.2…+1.3

Feb….+0.5….+0.5

 

Mar….+0.4….+0.6

Apr….+0.5…..+0.6

May...+0.6….+0.9

 

Jun….+0.3….+0.6

Jul…..+1.4…..+1.1

Aug...+0.6….+0.9

 

Sep….+1.0….+1.3

Oct…..+0.9..+1.4

Nov….+0.2..+0.5

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8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Quite the reversal on the ensembles after the 8-9th now from a couple days ago.

All of these competing influences seem to be screwing with the models.

Watch for a return to a overall wetter pattern by the 9th as trough comes east and front are hung up on EC as atlantic ridge remaind anchores east of bermuda.

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14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Eps joined the consensus with a cooler week after Columbus Day. The first week will be mild and dry 

That's going to be a much-needed drying out period after friday's big rain event. Looks like high temps mid-upper 70s for our area sunday through most of next week. Maybe close to 80 a couple of the days early week. Looking forward to next week. 

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